Short range model discussion - into 2018

[Djdazzle]

1 hour ago, Biggin said:

Nowhere at 30 ?? Surprised.

30.1C at Hampton.

[knocker]

Currently the hot plume is well established over the UK with the 'cooler' air flanking it, particularly over eastern and south east Europe/ Thus the sunny and hot weather to continue apace, with just a couple of caveats, for the rest of the week.

A clear night for many last night but some cloud around as can be seen on the 0300 WV, still a fair bit of Ci and Ac floccus here, Also some cloud associated with the old front lingering over northern Scotland but the main caveat is the Haar along the NE coast of Scotland which may well drift further south along eastern and south east coasts of England as the high cell relocates to the northern North Sea. So in a nutshell over the next couple of days, sunny and hot for most with an increasing west/east bias with eastern coastal regions cooler with a possible ingress of low cloud. Not forgetting either onset of sea breezes in other coastal regions.

And to add that the night's will become a tad warm in some areas

A not dissimilar story on Thursday and it's worth a quick glance at a couple of forecast soundings for central/northern/Scotland to illustrate the west/east bias and the very high temps in hot spots in the west

By Friday a gradual change is afoot with the easterly winds increasing a tad as a dying cold front slips south over the norther North Sea Thus, although by no means the end of the fine weather for most, a little cooler in northern areas and particularly eastern coastal regions with perhaps more ingress of low cloud and even a touch of drizzle.

The change continues through Saturday with a marked N/S split developing as the strengthening easterly wind veers south east and with warm moist air edging north from France into southern and western parts as the low pressure to the south tracks north. All of which courtesy of the trough and energy running south of it splitting the Azores ridge as it connects north east

 

 

 

Edited June 26, 2018 by knocker

[knocker]

An interesting 0600 geostationary showing the frontal cloud over NW Scotland and the low cloud along the eastern coasts ingressing inland  And also the line of cloud through Ireland down over the south west. I can confirm almost total Ac cover here with a suggestion of some medium level instability. Upper levels on the oo sounding were quite moist. I'm assuming this has something to do with the upper trough to the south west but I'm open to suggestions.

[knocker]

The ecm not adverse to a similar scenario vis the weekend with a weak front to the west of Ireland with warm moist air pushing north and a fair bit of instability in the Bay of Biscay associated with the low.

[Man With Beard]

Today's maximums:

ARPEGE is a little tempered compared with last night's run - now showing hot spots in western cities up to 30C, or maybe a 31 around Manchester. 

AROME has a fairly large area from the midlands up to Lancashire reaching 30C, with a possible 32C around the Manchester area. Even further south, typical hotspots such as Heathrow may clip 30C, and some Welsh valleys also. 

Similar story tomorrow, except the heat starts to build even more over Ireland / Scotland and that's when we may see some national / regional records under threat in N/W areas. 

[knocker]

Interesting high res. MODIS at 1130 UTC, Still a line of Ci and some Ac Cas. to the west of here. The large fire in Saddleworth Moor can also be seen

[knocker]

The 1100 UTC chart. Quite a few places already 26C

[knocker]

The 1500 geostationary. The band of medium and high cloud has finally more or less fizzled out and moved west from here nut was still evident on the 1200 sounding. didn't effect the temps this PM as we clocked 25C. Much low cloud over Scotland.

And quite a marked sea breeze effect along the south coast on the 1400 chart.

 

Edited June 26, 2018 by knocker

[knocker]

Some 1500 UTC temps. Leuchars 14.1C and 14.2C at Boulmer

http://www.met.reading.ac.uk/~brugge/15.html

Edited June 26, 2018 by knocker

[knocker]

The Atlantic trough splitting the ridge, phasing with the Iberian low which is boosted and dragged north. Thus veering and increasing the easterly drift as it pushes moist air into the south west and quite possibly initiating the odd storm. Also forming not a bad Omega Block

Edited June 26, 2018 by knocker

[knocker]

The ecm fails to phase the atlantic trough with the Iberian low a la gfs thus the latter is not activated and does not move appreciably north leaving the ridge to continue north east across northern parts. This tends to create a N/S divide with much cooler air in Scotland and N. Ireland whilst remaining hot in the south and warm in England and Wales generally on Sunday

 

Edited June 26, 2018 by knocker

[knocker]

Some max temps today

http://www.met.reading.ac.uk/~brugge/18.html

[knocker]

The hot and very dry spell continues but some pattern changes are afoot and thus the distribution of the very warm conditions will alter and become less widespread towards the end of the short range.

In the meantime some very hot conditions pertain over the next couple of days with the high cell centred in the North Sea and with the plume tending to be orientated to the west of the UK the hottest temps will be in the western regions with a possibility of the all time N. Ireland temp record being broken

A little more detail. It's been a clear night for most but with some cloud over the north and north east coastal regions ( see the Albermarle ascent and also note the large radiation inversion. But a very warm airmass with high surface temp potential)

During the day much of the cloud will burn off in the strong sun but some may linger around eastern coasts and a sunny and very hot day is in store for most but with eastern regions being cooler with the onshore breeze, Sea breezes will also kick in in other coastal areas

After a warm night in some areas, Thursday a not dissimilar day.

By Friday the atlantic trough is starting to disrupt the ridge to the west and phase with the Iberian low thus the surface high cell is displaced to the west of Norway and low pressure over France starts taking closer order, Thus the easterlies tending to pick up in the south and temps generally less hot albeit still another warm and sunny day with the usual caveats vis eastern regions.

Again not dissimilar on Saturday with warm and more humid air pushing north and the easterlies veering a shade thus the warmest temps probably concentrated in the south west where the odd showers may also occur.

Sunday could well see more concentrated convective activity in the south west as a trough tracks north from France but elsewhere another sunny day but still a marked N/S temp distribution with the former a fair bit cooler apart from the far north west

Edited June 27, 2018 by knocker

[knocker]

The ecm in the same ball park but not so keen on any precipitation in the south west so essentially continuing sunny and warm over the weekend, usual caveat, with the hottest temps in the south and west but generally still very warm over England and Wales on Sunday.

The 0600 geostationary shows that the low cloud has ingressed a fair way inland but this should quickly burn off. I'm off down to the Maritime Museum which is currently running a Titanic exhibition.

[Man With Beard]

Today's maximums according to model and area

AROME 00Z: England 30-31C (western areas), Wales 30-31C, Ireland 30-31C, N Ireland 30-31C, Scotland not available

ARPEGE 00Z: England 30-31C, Wales 30-31C, Ireland 30-32C, N Ireland 30-31C, Scotland 30-31C

All other models on Meteociel are about 3-4C down on these values.

[knocker]

The 1500 UTC geostationary indicating wall to wall sunshine. The low cloud along the North sea coasts will return inland tonight whilst elsewhere will be clear.

The 1400 surface chart showing a couple of 30C and the west/east temp differences along with sea breezes.

[knocker]

Some 1500 UTC Synops

http://www.met.reading.ac.uk/~brugge/15.html

 

 

[knocker]

The subtle difference between the gfs 06/12. To phase or not to phase the upper trough

[knocker]

The ecm is quite interesting over the weekend. It does more or less phase the atlantic trough with the Iberian upper low at t60 which does drag the latter north which effectively puts the plume over the south of the UK on Sunday as the HP ridges north east over Scotland where it will be appreciably cooler.

 

[knocker]

The fax chart on Saturday is not dissimilar to the ecm but will it have the trough, and the low,  in a similar position 24 hours later?

,

[knocker]

Max temps on the 1800 Synops. Aviemoor 31.3C

http://www.met.reading.ac.uk/~brugge/18.html

[knocker]

Latest EPS 15 day rainfall figures

 

Edited June 27, 2018 by knocker

[Man With Beard]

2 hours ago, knocker said:

Max temps on the 1800 Synops. Aviemoor 31.3C

http://www.met.reading.ac.uk/~brugge/18.html

Another outstanding performance by AROME /ARPEGE. Almost exactly as predicted earlier. They really are in a class of their own when forecasting heatwave temperatures. 

[cheese]

10 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Another outstanding performance by AROME /ARPEGE. Almost exactly as predicted earlier. They really are in a class of their own when forecasting heatwave temperatures. 

I think Arpege overestimated temperatures in Ireland though. 

[booferking]

3 minutes ago, cheese said:

I think Arpege overestimated temperatures in Ireland though. 

Why's that?

Castlederg 30c

Shannon airport 31c