Short range model discussion - into 2018

[knocker]

15 minutes ago, Staffordshire said:

Excellent post as per Knocker.

A question I have that I was hoping you could maybe answer for me is... there seems to be a hot-spot around Liverpool-Manchester on those maps, i'm sure this isn't usually the case in the UK... why does it seem to be over the coming days? Many thanks!!

As a general comment western regions have fared better for sunshine with  this easterly drift being quite persistent and they are leeward of the high ground. Why specifically the Liverpool/Manchester area I don't know but I would suspect a topographical angle plus the usual urban affect but I'm sure there are others more familiar with the weather of the area who could be more helpful. Are you around John?

[knocker]

33 minutes ago, Staffordshire said:

Excellent post as per Knocker.

A question I have that I was hoping you could maybe answer for me is... there seems to be a hot-spot around Liverpool-Manchester on those maps, i'm sure this isn't usually the case in the UK... why does it seem to be over the coming days? Many thanks!!

And something I should have said. Don't put too much store on model max temps being that accurate. I find them handy to get an idea of the spread although arguable the anomalies are better for that. An example here is the ecm take for Monday

Edited June 8, 2018 by knocker

[matty40s]

I've been in Blackpool for a few days in glorious sunshine, according to Mum it has only rained once in 3 weeks and the dryness of the verges backs this up.

All the time I was there, clouds sat over the Pennines, coming back yesterday the cloud started after Manchester towards Stoke.....it's been in the shadow effect for weeks.... With only a few storms getting though up there. 

[Staffordshire]

29 minutes ago, knocker said:

As a general comment western regions have fared better for sunshine with  this easterly drift being quite persistent and they are leeward of the high ground. Why specifically the Liverpool/Manchester area I don't know but I would suspect a topographical angle plus the usual urban affect but I'm sure there are others more familiar with the weather of the area who could be more helpful. Are you around John?

Thanks knocker!

[cheese]

The Manchester-Liverpool area will often be the warmest place or one of the warmest in this kind of setup, doesn't strike me as too unusual. Any kind of easterly wind direction will be good for them. I remember one day in July 2006 when the temperature in Liverpool reached something like 33C when there was a southeasterly wind, while on the same day it was 'only' 28 or 29C here.

Think of it as being like a much, much, much weaker version of those ridiculous heat spikes that places like Melbourne experience.

Edited June 8, 2018 by cheese

[knocker]

The 0900 geostationary (courtesy DSRS). The western Isles has it's own little system

Edited June 8, 2018 by knocker

[knocker]

Just an observation on my part but when we get into the more fluid pattern next week more care should be taken into not reading too much in every det run output, particularly without reference elsewhere. The reason being. imo, is that the variation of the phasing of the colder (trough) airmass traveling west > east and the fluctuations of the amplification of the warmer (Azores HP) will vary within the overall analysis, albeit nothing basically has changed.

Edited June 8, 2018 by knocker

[knocker]

The high res. MODIS at 1140 UTC

[knocker]

Digressing a tad to the GOES 16 at 1200 UTC showing tropical storm Aletta in the eastern Pacific

[knocker]

The 1400 UTC surface chart does indicate pretty well the areas of loner temps

[knocker]

Any showers over the Midlands and Wales, and more particularly N. Ireland and western Scotland will tend to die out later.resulting in a clear night in the north but cloudier and more humid in the south with the usual problem along the east coast.

Thus tomorrow will start dry and become quite warm in places but the odd showers may pop up the south west and around the Midlands/Wales but the main area of convective activity developing during the day and evening will be N. Ireland, north west England and in particular Scotland (note trough on fax). Some of these showers could produce a fair amount of rain in a short period.

 

[knocker]

The 1800 UTC geostationary

[knocker]

By Monday the ecm has the ridge to the west coming under pressure from the east bound energy and becoming influential in the north thus cooler but still another humid and warm day in the south. Still convective outbreaks.

By Tuesday the ridge now orientated NE over the UK and the showers confined to the west as it becomes generally much cooler.

By Wednesday a depression has arrived north west of Scotland and the associated front and rain are impacting Ireland and western Scotland in the freshening westerly wind. Cooler in the west but now a little above average along the eastern fringes

[knocker]

Last evening’s EPS 500mb NH anomaly continues to indicate the upcoming pattern change with the intense positive anomaly central Canada that has split the vortex and created a complex upper low/trough structure NE North America/Greenland area.  Simultaneously the vortex lobe over n. Russia has slipped west to the Svalbard region and is about to possible combine with the former and form a new rather diffuse vortex in the Greenland/Iceland area.

Essentially this means a strong upper westerly across the Atlantic, the erosion  of our faithful block, and thus a more unsettled and cooler regime, (not necessarily exceedingly drastic) but with a N/S bias as systems track east then north east as the cooler airmass interacts with the ridging Azores

After another humid night in the south today will dawn with patchy cloud over the UK mainly in central and eastern areas (see 0300 geo). This will thin and pull back as the sun gets going to herald another warm day, particularly in southern regions  with the usual caveat vis east coast and sea breezes elsewhere. But there is a chance of  showers creeping into the south  west and and Wales but much more to the point, .the likely hood of heavy showers/thundery outbreaks occurring in N. Ireland and western Scotland as the day progresses. These could give significant rainfall amounts in some places. (Note trough on fax), During the evening cloud will become more widespread in the south east and south.

A not dissimilar day on Sunday but perhaps  the showers more widespread with showers popping up in the south west, Wales, the north west as well as eastern Scotland. So another warm day and maybe some better news vis cloud along the east coast as it transfers to the south west.

By Monday the overall position sees the ridge to our west coming under pressure from the trough in the western Atlantic and it has re orientated a tad north east which may well help keep the east coast clear of cloud, So still  essentially another warm day with temps generally a little above average with showers confined to western regions. There is some nasty convective stuff just across the Channel and hopefully that's where it will stay.

By Tuesday the ridge has become more influential as the low pressure to the south is finally moved east but that also means temperatures nearer normal and actually below in the south east but the cloud from the North Sea is no more, showers again probably confined to the west.

Wednesday a generally dry and warm day but the pressure from the west is taking it's toll and during the day frontal systems, associated with a depression NW of Ireland, (it has to be said there is a marked difference vis the intensity of this between the fax and the gfs) will bring cloud and freshening winds to western parts and rain is immanent

 

[knocker]

just as a matter of interest I had a look at the forecast convective cloud depth for 1200 in western Scotland and the forecast sounding. Not bad which shouldn't be surprising of course

[knocker]

I'm not sure there is much point in posting this as apparently images are no longer viewable but here goes.

The ecm forms a wave on the front at T72 and deepens it rapidly as it tracks it north east to be north west of Scotland by T120. The front by then is bringing rain and pretty strong winds to Ireland and western Scotland

Well problem solved I can't upload the images anyway.

 

 

[knocker]

Currently the convective activity is concentrated over western Scotland western and central Scotland and north west England and this will continue this evening before relenting leaving a clear night in mast places.

But low cloud and mist will again encroach north east coasts and also Kent and Sussex and it will be another humid night in the south The low cloud and mist should clear pretty quickly in the morning leading to generally another warm and sunny day in most areas, with perhaps N. Ireland clouding over later. But this will trigger heavy showers that will occur mainly in eastern Scotland and north east England, west Wales and the south west with possible some localized heavy rainfall.

 

 

Edited June 9, 2018 by knocker

[johnholmes]

1 minute ago, knocker said:

Currently the convective activity is concentrated over western Scotland western and central Scotland and north west England and this will continue this evening before relenting leaving a clear night in mast places.

But low cloud and mist will again encroach north east coasts and also Kent and Sussex and it will be another humid night in the south The low cloud and mist should clear pretty quickly in the morning leading to generally another warm and sunny day in most areas, with perhaps N. Ireland clouding over later. But this will trigger heavy showers that will occur mainly in eastern Scotland and north east England, west Wales and the south west with possible some localized heavy rainfall.

 

 

sorry to be a pain re opening things

weatherbell deny me access so unable to see it

I am a member for Dundee so can open that but have to go through the verification procedure to do it rather than the image being there.

 

 

[johnholmes]

9 hours ago, knocker said:

I'm not sure there is much point in posting this as apparently images are no longer viewable but here goes.

The ecm forms a wave on the front at T72 and deepens it rapidly as it tracks it north east to be north west of Scotland by T120. The front by then is bringing rain and pretty strong winds to Ireland and western Scotland

Well problem solved I can't upload the images anyway.

 

 

Yep same with me k, the only way I have been told so far is to buy a pdf system, quite costly to allow import of files which previously were easily iploaded. I know Paul is trying to find a way over the weekend, hopefully he will be successful as much of the enjoyment of this forum is seing the charts and the comments we all make to support them.

[knocker]

4 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

sorry to be a pain re opening things

weatherbell deny me access so unable to see it

I am a member for Dundee so can open that but have to go through the verification procedure to do it rather than the image being there.

 

 

I have edited that post now John. Best suspend operations whilst 'Paul the builder' is busy building.

[knocker]

But we could track next weeks low out of interest starting at T48

Then T66

T78

T96

And T108 when the front is over Ireland and Scotland and is about to traverse the UK through Thursday accompanied by rain and strong winds

And at that stage the 100kt jet is running east from Newfound and to Ireland.

Edited June 9, 2018 by knocker

[knocker]

And moving on to T120

[knocker]

And the ecm

[knocker]

Overview

The transition to a more trough driven Atlantic pattern is now well established within the short range, as can be seen by a quick glance at the 500mb analysis.. The rather diffuse vortex/trough is over the Greenland/Iceland area with a strong westerly flow 50-70kts running south of it. This portends unsettled weather over the UK but the det. runs will need to sort the detail of this as this phases with the warmer Azores airmass to the south.

Meanwhile after a dry, and humid in the south, night today will start with some low cloud and mist around in some areas (thick fog here at the moment) but most of this should burn off, apart from maybe eastern coastal regions, giving a generally warm day in most areas. A bit cloudier and cooler in N. Ireland and NW Scotland with a front fairly adjacent.But again this could trigger some heavy showers in west Wales and the south west but more particularly in eastern Scotland and northern England.

The showers will tend to fizzle out during the evening resulting in another dry night but cloud will ingress further into Scotland and may even give a spot of drizzle and also across N. Ireland though tomorrow. Elsewhere another sunny day but feeling a tad fresher as the ridge pushes in but still showery outbreaks could occur over Wales and central England. (note convergence zone)

Essentially Tuesday and Wednesday will be dry and sunny with the odd shower around but by Wednesday evening fronts associated with a wave that has formed on the active front out west in the Atlantic,and has tracked NW of Scotland are already impacting N. Ireland and Scotland. They will proceed south east across the country through Thursday accompanied by strong winds and rain followed by cooler, showery, weather. The best way to illustrate this is to run the sequence.

The more detailed fax charts for Weds/Thurs

 

Edited June 10, 2018 by knocker

[knocker]

And this morning's gfs 500mb analysis for T120 and the 200mb field

Edited June 10, 2018 by knocker