Short range model discussion - into 2018

[knocker]

The 0600 UTC geostationary. I'm trusting the Ac layer still around here will soon go, much as the Sc has done recently

[knocker]

The ecm is similar to the gfs so just some temp anomalies and the NH profile at T120 which as much as mentioned above.

[knocker]

The 0900 UTC geo. pretty much to plan, The cloud is still persisting here

[johnholmes]

4 hours ago, knocker said:

The 0600 UTC geostationary. I'm trusting the Ac layer still around here will soon go, much as the Sc has done recently

 

10 minutes ago, knocker said:

The 0900 UTC geo. pretty much to plan, The cloud is still persisting here

Also here K, complicated to day by the small low in the N Sea shown on the Fax chart

[knocker]

And ditto the MODIS high res at 1200 UTC Dunno whether my eyes are deceiving me but can I perceive a circulation around that little low?

Edited June 6, 2018 by knocker

[Staffordshire]

Thanks for the updates as always Knocker, I can assure you there are a lot of us who read them!

 

I'll be keeping a close eye on this thread over the coming days as I am hoping for some nice (dry) weather this weekend, specifically on Sunday in Manchester.

[knocker]

Here we go and still that layer at around 5,000 ft is struggling to break

[knocker]

1 hour ago, Staffordshire said:

Thanks for the updates as always Knocker, I can assure you there are a lot of us who read them!

 

I'll be keeping a close eye on this thread over the coming days as I am hoping for some nice (dry) weather this weekend, specifically on Sunday in Manchester.

Cheers Stafford and yes a close eye  will probably be required. A bit early yet but looking warm enough but where, and i, thundery outbreaks may well be the problem.

Edited June 6, 2018 by knocker

[knocker]

Cloud still just hanging in there over west Cornwall at 1500 UTC

Anyway tonight should be quite clear in most places, away from the north east coastal regions of course, and feeling much fresher than of late. Tomorrow should herald another sunny and warm day for most but with a couple of exceptions. Still an onshore breeze along the NE/E coastal regions so again cloudier and cooler here  and during the night and trough tomorrow a band of showery activity will track north into southern England and move slowly north to around the south Midlands during the day. And perhaps the odd shower popping up in N.Ireland

Edited June 6, 2018 by knocker

[knocker]

With the warm and quite moist air associated with the area of low pressure to to the south pushing north over the weekend, Friday > Sunday looks like being generally warm with temps above average .But with an onshore drift still prevailing eastern coastal regions and some way inland will still be prone to low cloud and cooler temps. And elsewhere there will be an increasing risk of thundery showers, the specifics of which may harden up later.

[knocker]

A quick look at a couple of the EPS short range  500mb NH anomaly charts from last night which illustrate quite well ( imo) the amplification of the North American ridge, resulting in a split vortex lobe, with the more relevant upper trough ( from the UK viewpoint) over Newfoundland. This is then due to track east towards Iceland with a very strong westerly upper jet running across the Atlantic south of it but that is outside the remit of this thread. The GEFS pretty much in agreement with this.

Meanwhile a familiar pattern unfolds over the UK over the next few days. Dawn breaks after a fresh clear night in many areas apart from eastern coastal regions where low cloud remains the problem and further south along the south coast where more humid air accompanied by showery outbreaks has encroached during the night. It may even give the odd storm. The showers and humid air will track north as far as the southern Midlands during the day thus intermittent sunshine albeit another warm day. Clearer skies further north but the usual caveat vis the NE/E coast. The humidity charts, the 0300 geostationary WV, and the Camborne 00 sounding illustrate the above.

The cloudy humid air will continue to move north overnight and through Friday thus spreading the shower area but these will tend to fizzle out during the day although as temps rise a few more could be triggered in the south. So generally another warm day, sunnier away the above area, but with the usual proviso of course.

The overall analysis on Saturday sees the upper low to the south encircled by the ridging Azores and European highs which sets the tone for the weekend. Worth noting developments upstream are under way with the trough over Newfoundland. Thus a continuation of the humid air creep with showery outbreaks possible over England and wales, interspersed with sunny intervals,. Another warm day, particularly in the south with the usual caveat east coast regions where mist and low cloud may well pertain.

Sunday a not dissimilar day

Further emphasis on the north/south theme on Monday as the drier and sunnier weather, with perhaps the odd shower whilst more concentrated thundery outbreaks spread north over the south of England. Another warm day, temps still above average in the west and north, but humid in the south.

And the NH 500mb anomaly at T120

Edited June 7, 2018 by knocker

[knocker]

The penultimate sentence above should of course read:

Further emphasis on the north/south theme on Monday as the drier and sunnier weather will be in the north.......

The 0600 UTC geostationary

 

Edited June 7, 2018 by knocker

[knocker]

The ecm det 3-7 50omb anomaly very much along the lines previously mentioned.

[knocker]

The 0900 geostationary (courtesy DSRS) pretty much as expected. The cloud in the north east should burn back to the coast a tad

[knocker]

The high res. MODIS at 1245 UTC

Pretty solid cloud on the Camborne midday sounding

 

 

Edited June 7, 2018 by knocker

[knocker]

The showery rain in the south Midlands area will tend to die out this evening and with the cloud thinning further south a pretty good evening in many places. But tonight the recurring the theme of low cloud pushing east from the North sea will bring low cloud a fair way inland in Scotland and the north east.

Tomorrow this will burn back to the coast again and generally it will be a sunny and warm day with a few showers around the north midlands and Wales but more in particular popping up over western Scotland and N. Ireland

The METO seem to be downplaying the frequency of showers over England and Wales over the weekend, suggesting more likely over Scotland, but this can be updated tomorrow.

[knocker]

Worth noting the WAA over central Canada as the cold air and the trough are displaced into the Atlantic

[knocker]

Saturday and Sunday temps still generally above average apart from the eastern coastal regions with much of the convective activity over Scotland and N. Ireland Could do without that convergence zone down these parts though.

Edited June 7, 2018 by knocker

[knocker]

 The gradual transition

[knocker]

I'm sure everyone is familiar with how the NH pattern is evolving so just a quick reminder with last evening's EPS short range NH profile. The essential details are the upstream events involving the intense ridge/trough combo and the erosion of the Azores/Euro block that has been a feature for so long. Thus a more westerly influences should enter the scene by the end of the short range.

But back to the here and now.

Quite a cloudy and humid start in the south and with a front draped across the Midlands some showers still around. Further north quite a clear night but the usual ingress of low cloud along eastern coastal regions and a fair way inland. This will pull back to the coast during the day and the cloud will thin in the south and the showers become very infrequent resulting in a warm day generally. But this could trigger some hefty showers/storms in N. Ireland and Scotland that are in a different circulation.

A clear night for most apart from the usual ingress of cloud in eastern regions leading to a warm day for just about everyone with the usual caveats vis the east and other coastal regions may also be a bit cooler if sea breezes kick in. The major exception here will be N. Ireland and western Scotland where there could well be some torrential downpours in the slow moving convection and later in the day some showers could also creep into the south of England.

By Sunday the overview still has the Iberian upper low as the main influence over the UK but to the west the trough and energy exiting the eastern seaboard is already exerting some pressure on the Azores ridge. But for the time being another very warm and humid day for the UK, usual caveat, and heavy showers/storms could crop up almost anywhere.

A not dissimilar day on Monday but just to emphasis once again cooler near the North Sea coasts and to note some quite nast weather over N. France and in the Channel

By Tuesday some indication of the changes that are afoot as the pressure on the ridge has re orientated it across the UK and thus a much less humid day and temps slipping down to around average in many areas with the west and north west being warmer but still the chance of showers in these regions.

 

Edited June 8, 2018 by knocker

[knocker]

The 0400 UTC chart showing rain across Wales and the Midlands and cloudy and misty further south

[knocker]

Some pretty solid cloud still on the 0600 UTC geostationary

[knocker]

Quite interesting looking at a couple of forecast soundings tomorrow and noting the different temp structure.

Little surprise storms forecast for Scotland  with that unstable sounding and a goad example of cold air avection from the North Sea in the boundary layer.

[knocker]

The ecm temp anomaly Monday/Tuesday

[Staffordshire]

2 hours ago, knocker said:

I'm sure everyone is familiar with how the NH pattern is evolving so just a quick reminder with last evening's EPS short range NH profile. The essential details are the upstream events involving the intense ridge/trough combo and the erosion of the Azores/Euro block that has been a feature for so long. Thus a more westerly influences should enter the scene by the end of the short range.

But back to the here and now.

Quite a cloudy and humid start in the south and with a front draped across the Midlands some showers still around. Further north quite a clear night but the usual ingress of low cloud along eastern coastal regions and a fair way inland. This will pull back to the coast during the day and the cloud will thin in the south and the showers become very infrequent resulting in a warm day generally. But this could trigger some hefty showers/storms in N. Ireland and Scotland that are in a different circulation.

A clear night for most apart from the usual ingress of cloud in eastern regions leading to a warm day for just about everyone with the usual caveats vis the east and other coastal regions may also be a bit cooler if sea breezes kick in. The major exception here will be N. Ireland and western Scotland where there could well be some torrential downpours in the slow moving convection and later in the day some showers could also creep into the south of England.

By Sunday the overview still has the Iberian upper low as the main influence over the UK but to the west the trough and energy exiting the eastern seaboard is already exerting some pressure on the Azores ridge. But for the time being another very warm and humid day for the UK, usual caveat, and heavy showers/storms could crop up almost anywhere.

A not dissimilar day on Monday but just to emphasis once again cooler near the North Sea coasts and to note some quite nast weather over N. France and in the Channel

By Tuesday some indication of the changes that are afoot as the pressure on the ridge has re orientated it across the UK and thus a much less humid day and temps slipping down to around average in many areas with the west and north west being warmer but still the chance of showers in these regions.

 

Excellent post as per Knocker.

A question I have that I was hoping you could maybe answer for me is... there seems to be a hot-spot around Liverpool-Manchester on those maps, i'm sure this isn't usually the case in the UK... why does it seem to be over the coming days? Many thanks!!