Short range model discussion - into 2018

[knocker]

Main features illustrated well on the 1800 geostationary

[knocker]

The ecm on the west/east temp anomaly Tues/Weds

[knocker]

Should of course read Mon/Tues

Edited June 3, 2018 by knocker

[knocker]

It has been another mild night with high dew points with mist in many areas, see the 0200, chart,

but although clear shies in the west low cloud has infiltrated a fair way inland from the North Sea in the east. This west/east split will continue during the day. albeit the cloud should withdraw somewhat. To the west the temps will rise giving another warm day but this will spark off the odd shower and even some storms in western Scotland.

Late evening and overnight the low cloud and mist will return with a vengeance but a decaying cold front is making it's way south leaving cooler and clearer air in it's wake, which is quite quickly into northern Scotland. So Tuesday should be a bright and sunny day for most with the possibility of the odd thundery shower in N. Ireland.

By Wednesday the overall NH analysis sees the high pressure ridging north of the UK with the trough in the western Atlantic still making some inroads on the Azores ridge with the two energy arms exiting North America still diverging in mid Atlantic. On the surface this translates to an active front in mid Atlantic,  not affecting the UK at this stage, which is still under the auspices of the high cell north of Scotland. Thus a generally fine day but cooler and cloudier in the east under the onshore drift.

By Thursday the Azores is once more amplifying north east but not before creating another cut off upper low that boosts the low pressure to the south of the UK. Thus although generally another fine and quite warm day, usual caveat east coast, a chance of thundery showers creeping north from France and affecting the south.

A not dissimilar day on Friday, again quite warm with temps above average, but cloudier in the south with a chance of some thundery outbreaks again.

Continuing pretty dry and this remains the outlook unless more concentrated convective activity drifts north again from the continent.

Edited June 4, 2018 by knocker

[knocker]

This morning's GEFS anomaly merely confirms the gfs take on the short range anaysis.

Edited June 4, 2018 by knocker

[knocker]

The 0600 UTC geostationary (courtesy DSRS)

And the ecm this morning illustrating the west/east divide

 

[knocker]

The high res. MODIS at 1200 UTC

[knocker]

The MODIS at 1400 UTC. Again after a sunny and very warm morning an ingress of thick medium and high cloud.

[knocker]

Any storms in west and south west Scotland should fizzle out this evening leaving a dry night for the UK but the low cloud and mist will move quite extensively inland again but affecting western parts. The good news is that tomorrow the air is much drier so once the sun gets going it should burn off in most places leaving a sunny and warm day. Temps will still be a tad depressed in eastern coastal regions courtesy of the onshore wind.

Edited June 4, 2018 by knocker

[knocker]

The ecm has some convective activity moving into the south Thursday/Friday as the upper low consolidates near Coruna.

The 1800 UTC geostationary

[carinthian]

Quite a shock in store for our Scandinavian friends tomorrow morning. Widespread negative DPs and wind chill. -8C uppers (850mb ) over the Norwegian/ Swedish Alps, so snow in the forecast there. Temp on Saturday was 30c just to the north of Stockholm where my daughter lives. Max tomorrow may be 12c, quite a drop. Thermals back out !

C

[knocker]

9 minutes ago, carinthian said:

Quite a shock in store for our Scandinavian friends tomorrow morning. Widespread negative DPs and wind chill. -8C uppers (850mb ) over the Norwegian/ Swedish Alps, so snow in the forecast there. Temp on Saturday was 30c just to the north of Stockholm where my daughter lives. Max tomorrow may be 12c, quite a drop. Thermals back out !

C

Yes the trough edged a tad west although it is shunted back a bit during the week

[knocker]

Just to note last night’s short range anomalies in an attempt  to keep track of this slowly moving pattern.

Very strong ridging over Russia is flanked by the elongated trough/vortex stretching from N. Canada to eastern Europe which in turn has two troughs dissected by a strong ridge over North America.

Still a strong westerly upper flow exiting the eastern seaboard south of the trough which weakens and diverges in mid Atlantic courtesy the blocking high and the Iberian upper low. But a suggestion that the block is weakening somewhat (not a complete agreement on this) .

This has no immediate impact within this range so a continuation of the slack gradient over the UK with temps still above average but perhaps the low pressure to the south becoming a tad more influential but worth keeping an eye on as it looks the likely way forward.

meanwhile back on the farm.

A dry and murky start to many areas this morning, albeit not as muggy as late, but the cloud should burn back from most always excepting NE and E coastal fringes where it may hang around with similarly temps a bit depressed. Elsewhere a sunny and quite warm day if again a bit cooler than of late.

A not dissimilar day tomorrow with the low cloud and mist returning overnight to north east and some central regions before burning off again apart from the coastal fringes leaving most of the UK to have another warm and sunny day and fresher air,  Taking the slightly bigger picture away to the west the upper trough has again been split by the amplifying Azores with and active surface front orientated NW/SE in mid Atlantic.

Thursday sees the ridging continuing apace with the low pressure to the south getting a boost resulting in a freshening NE/E wind and a chance of storms pushing north into the south from France. Thus on a generally dry and sunny day eastern coastal regions will again be adversely affected.

Friday is tending towards a north/south split with cooler and sunnier conditions in the north (the east coast again excepted as the winds veer a tad) but cloudier and warmer in the south with the risk of storms as the low pressure becomes more influential.

Saturday a day of marked contrasts as the warm humid air pushes further north giving a much more general area of cloud and showers with thundery outbreaks with the drier and sunnier weather the further north you go. The gfs this morning is slightly at odds with last night's fax so it will be interesting ti see what the ecm comes up with

Edited June 5, 2018 by knocker

[knocker]

Plenty of cloud around on the 04 UTC chart with some patchy drizzle/rain in the south

[knocker]

The ecm has the warmer more moist air moving north during the latter part of the week thus also tending a N/S split with cloudier and showery/thundery conditions in the south. But no closed low center so nearer the METO take.

This morning's 0600 UTC geostationary is not a thing of beauty

[knocker]

Getting there behind the cold front on the 0900 geostationary

[knocker]

I don't normally bother with the 0600 output but keeping an eye on this weekend.

No probs with the updated fax and the gfs at 1200 Friday and after the gfs is still consolidating the northward movement of the low pressure and becoming generally more unsettled

[knocker]

The high res. MODIS at 111 UTC (courtesy Dundee Satellite Receiving Station) and the midday chart

 

[knocker]

Today is ECMWF model upgrade day

Edited June 5, 2018 by knocker

[knocker]

A glance at the 1500 geostationary will note that the thick cloud never did clear the south west and the odd storm popped up in n. Ireland. Overnight the cloud should finally clear but the mist and low cloud (some drizzle?) will roll in over the north east/east again and ingress a fair way inland. This might slowly pull back tomorrow but essentially it will be a reverse of today with the sunniest and warmest weather in the south

Edited June 5, 2018 by knocker

[knocker]

Just a general observation on the gfs 1200

The tone for the weekend weather gets underway tomorrow with renewed amplification of the Azores and European ridging which creates a new cut off low which  track south east to boost the trough south of the UK whilst the cold trough plunges south over eastern Europe

.

[knocker]

The warmer more unstable air moves north starting Thursday and over the weekend heralding a return of showery/thundery conditions, initially in the south and west

[knocker]

At the end of the short range the GEFS anomaly is indicating the beginning of strong ridging upstream in north America which displaces a vortex lobe into the north west Atlantic. A theme that the ecm det run also follows and it aint good news if this continues

[knocker]

A quick look at the GEFS NH analysis at the beginning and end of the short range  from last night’s 1800 run which continues to signal  the start of a major transition with the amplification of the ridge over North America and displacement of a vortex lobe/trough into the north west Atlantic whilst at the same eroding the block that has been so influential in recent weeks in dictating the weather over the UK.

Back to this morning

Overnight most of the cloud that persisted yesterday in the south has disappeared as the drier air moves south resulting in a clear start to the day. but in eastern Scotland the north east of England low cloud and mist from the North Sea has once again encroached inland. So today will be a reversal from yesterday with a generally sunny day and warm in many areas, particularly in the south but the cloud could well hang around in the north east.eastern areas and thus depressing the temp. But by late evening more humid unstable air is once again pushing north from France into the south.

The humid air will continue to push north overnight and through Thursday whilst also initiating showery, perhaps stormy, outbreaks along the south coast and the south east. Despite this another warm day in these parts and elsewhere with the usual caveats vis the north east/east although it should be less cloudy.

So the overview on Friday sees the upper low to the south encircled by the ridging of the Azores and European highs thus a fairly quiescent period beckons with the surface low and moist air continuing to push north with more showery outbreaks in the south but generally tending warm and sunny with the possible eexception of the usual areas in the north and east. 

Little change from this scenario on Saturday

And the north/south split continues to be the percentage play on Sunday with showery/thundery outbreaks likely in the south and west whilst sunnier and drier in the north with the usual proviso vis eastern coastal areas. But still generally remaining warm over the weekend with temps a little above average

 

[knocker]

The 0500 UTC analysis