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Short range model discussion - into 2018


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Hey ho in north west Scotland over the weekend,the ecm has temps in the range of 6-10C above average. Any clothing under the kilt can be comfortably discarded

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The ecm is a tad cooler on Monday in comparison with the GFS as it starts to ridge the Azores HP fairly close out to west which introduces some 'cooler' air around the top and around the shallow low over the south west which partly removes the southerly drift as the plume is pushed further east. Even this is correct which is a long way from a given still a pretty good day.

ecm_t850_uv_eur_4.thumb.png.24b69cbfd2cd4d445edca4c339cf285d.pngecm_t850_uv_eur_5.thumb.png.1412473a120ebc32a6f68e810d0ea3cb.pngmon.thumb.png.9bdf67b37b29cfaf64f164cb1af53b4b.png

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Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland

Top analysis Knocker......forget the other model thread, this thread is rapidly turning into the 'go to' thread on NW 

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Posted
  • Location: Hampshire Snow Hoper
  • Location: Hampshire Snow Hoper

Totally agree mr shark,just hope a few more start to use it to back up Knockers fantastic work on here,a nice change from certainties at T384 lol

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Cheers chaps, no pressure then

Anyway the 0900 geo says it all really. Mind much of the thicker cloud has gone from down here and when the sun made a brief appearance just now it was quite warm

geo.thumb.JPG.eb0bb88c3764b7474e76cd482a1b9002.JPG

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
35 minutes ago, knocker said:

Cheers chaps, no pressure then

Anyway the 0900 geo says it all really. Mind much of the thicker cloud has gone from down here and when the sun made a brief appearance just now it was quite warm

geo.thumb.JPG.eb0bb88c3764b7474e76cd482a1b9002.JPG

Having a look at that chart and I think someone needs to have a word with that cloud over the Midlands and tell it to go away!

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The thick cloud and thundery showers will slowly move NW and touch southern Scotland (A brilliant warm day north of here) leaving a relatively clear evening for much of England but low cloud and mist will return tonight over many central and eastern areas.

This will clear tomorrow and a war.hot day beckons for all (eastern coasts again the exception) but heavy thundery showers could affect anywhere south west of a line Liverpool > Kent

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Posted
  • Location: Skelmersdale
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: 6-10 degrees. Spring 12-16 degrees. Summer 17-22 degrees.
  • Location: Skelmersdale
5 hours ago, DiagonalRedLine said:

Having a look at that chart and I think someone needs to have a word with that cloud over the Midlands and tell it to go away!

It can come here if it wants. I'll have a word for you.

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

By now everyone is familiar with the general analysis for the holiday weekend so essentially it's down to accessing the detail and potential of the storms and heavy rainfall that are forecast for the south west and Wales, and the fringes of theses areas, over the next couple of days. Obviously it's hit and miss where these occur so basically it's down to real time radar and satellite watching and as there is a thread dedicated to this very eventuality I wont attempt too much detail here. Some is required for continuity

The rain from yesterday has cleared and a pretty fine start to the day everywhere, apart from some low cloud over north east Scotland, and it will become very and sunny in all areas, the usual caveats vis eastern coastal areas, but through the day a front accompanied by humid unstable air will push north from France across the south and south west.. This has the potential for some nasty storms and localized heavy rain across the south west and north into Wales.

PPVA89.thumb.gif.02d48159a0963d0f59bab5b554c11166.gifPPVE89.thumb.gif.0361265599d2e859d10e2d257ac0091b.gifPPVG89.thumb.gif.751477b88fe752c0c23e547079203d73.gif

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A similar story on Sunday but with the front and humid unstable air pushing further north potentially the storms and localized heavy rain will do the same and also push further west as well. It will be another warm and sunny day, including of course the areas in the west that miss any storms.

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Another warm day on Monday (note the temp in north west Scotland) but still the chance of thundery outbreaks in the west and south. But note quite an intense upper low/trough has spawned from the Canadian/Greenland trough complex and is SE of Greenland along with the associated surface features.

gfs_t2max_c_uk2_12.thumb.png.95f6fc10a3b680a53af6d0eda2e1e61b.pnggfs_ptype_slp_eur3_12.thumb.png.4b682aa515798d4426b3caddb62fc3d2.png

gfs_z500a_natl_12.thumb.png.daa640ee624316e87892962b93e0aa3b.pnggfs_t850a_natl_12.thumb.png.bbf4f7e97cca0372268f4eb92adbd5ec.png

Tuesday much the same, sunny and warm but with the strengthening easterly once more not so much along eastern coasts and still thundery showers likely in the south and west. Out to the west the trough is about to be split by the Azores ridging again but more north that north east on this occasion.

gfs_ptype_slp_eur3_16.thumb.png.5f3fbd14e2c02765a1be01444808fa39.pnggfs_t2max_c_uk2_16.thumb.png.58b33e6707ae3d13d40664a77840d032.pnggfs_z500a_natl_16.thumb.png.8dade5a5c9c38e6b63b881ed6f8bd828.png

The burgeoning Azores does duly split the trough creating another cut off upper low west of Ireland which merges with the low pressure to our south. Essentially this appears to be achieving two things. The Azores linking once more to the high pressure to our NE but setting the emerging block further west whilst at the same time setting up a broader area of slack low pressure over the UK. Thus still warm but still some showery risk in the south

gfs_ptype_slp_eur3_20.thumb.png.022f9ff6d98a1722ce5169f4c5fb04c7.pnggfs_t2max_c_uk2_20.thumb.png.779c56033ad052190af8d82a590b0b64.pnggfs_z500a_natl_20.thumb.png.755eef921022bb46aef6877417a88fa0.png

Edited by knocker
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Well this already incorrect I’m afraid as there is nuisance showery activity in the south likley to ruin the start to the day and also likely scupper my plans to add to my colour riding round the new forest. Looking at the models will likely be of almost no use in the 0-12hr range and it’s nowcasting until the end of the weekend.

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

This morning's fax charts for Sunday with the ecm take on it. And through mid week the ecm follows a similar route to the gfs in creating a cut off upper low west of Ireland so that by T120 on the surface a large swathe of low pressure, centred just south west of Ireland, covers the UK and regions south. Temps still above average but still cooler along the east coast

PPVE89.thumb.gif.7571c13bcd47e2284b686c1328587734.gifPPVG89.thumb.gif.6fd931e5ae04875708262fc9d522908e.gifmax.thumb.png.1ad78bea16d30a27ac14741b2d9f9593.png

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Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
3 hours ago, Alderc said:

Well this already incorrect I’m afraid as there is nuisance showery activity in the south likley to ruin the start to the day and also likely scupper my plans to add to my colour riding round the new forest. Looking at the models will likely be of almost no use in the 0-12hr range and it’s nowcasting until the end of the weekend.

Yup shower activity seems more widespread than expected. Anyway going out to cut the hedge as got a slow puncture on the car and can't fix it until Tuesday.

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Yes presumably associated with the trough seen on the fax and the 1000 UTC analysis shows a fair bit of rain, drizzle and haze southern Midlands and central southern England. The sat. image is the 0900 geo. Still 20C in God's coutry

PPVA89.thumb.gif.1347e487a90a99599469ceb44761b411.gif10.thumb.gif.98a5c0d6c4a23e6e2d1574c1eb682bd8.gifgeo.thumb.JPG.529dac3949d01c1fcc2d859b845ec3a6.JPG

 

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Once this morning's showery rain cleared west it's been a sunny and warm afternoon in many areas. Still got the Haar around the north east coast of Scotland and there has been thick Ci in the south west as can be seen on the Camborne sounding and the 1500 geo.

2018052612.03808.skewt_parc.thumb.gif.ace32cd137948dcddd785bbee9622608.gif1352154196_geo2.thumb.JPG.e5d3b3397c97378886491d484ef4f08c.JPG

but some intensive storms are still expected to sweep north west through the south, south west and Wales this evening and overnight before clearing although another batch may do similar a little further north through North wales and the north west tomorrow. It will again be sunny away from areas affected by the showers/storms with temps a tad higher than today.

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154131849_t7.thumb.png.5f88ef4b1c3cc2994c5b1fcea314f5eb.png

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

Cracking performance by AROME in hot conditions once again - the only model anywhere near correct for me on the central southern coast today, with 26-28C being achieved widely. Has it been right for the rest of you? (can be accessed on Meteociel) 

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The Atlantic high pressure still ridging towards the high pressure to our north east in mid week continues to split the trough, creating another cut off upper low. This initiates a westward extension of the surface low pressure area over the UK and France but also heralds another sequence in the evolution of the high pressure. According to the gfs

gfs_z500a_natl_15.thumb.png.42847e846d35ca5dedf081c0eaed18eb.pnggfs_ptype_slp_eur3_15.thumb.png.db97eb69e4cac1d9c201ff360ac47110.png

gfs_z500a_natl_19.thumb.png.a64e3ead32f559a4c3a50d7659f0bdb2.pnggfs_ptype_slp_eur3_19.thumb.png.36bead24c263b22a26e05bf766b1d068.png

 

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

I'm fully aware that model rainfall figures should be treated with great caution I think the five day total worth a look if only because for once Scotland is a winner

total.thumb.png.0230fa3fc49da0b78be5de27a0f97a27.png

 

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

This morning the storms that crossed the west country have passed (a thunderstorm here at 03 but quite clear with some high Ac at the moment) but through the day the line of storms will move further north and generally run from a broad area N. Ireland, N. Wales, the Midlands and the south east with some intense downpours and perhaps hail. Elsewhere the south west may be a tad cloudy but Scotland and northern England bright and sunny once any Haar has cleared, Generally warm/hot with the usual caveats east coast and model temps)

PPVA89.thumb.gif.6f8f2c0fc5d8ce830c003b56bbcf353f.gifPPVE89.thumb.gif.d7e3711c5cb51b537477fb2ff25db210.gifPPVG89.thumb.gif.9ba092955042c76810176531c377f717.gif

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Overnight this batch of storms will gradually die out leaving a fairly cloudy night over much of England with low cloud and mist rolling in over eastern coasts again and perhaps along the Channel as well. This may well linger during the day as more thundery showers track NW/N from the south east. Another warm day with the usual caveat.

PPVI89.thumb.gif.788dc8fdefd547c246ad4e4faa32f82b.gif2057325729_max1.thumb.png.02826d5fca49198742d8c810a62f111f.png2020435123_dew1.thumb.png.ddc4269d1cc0364d53297c78dfb19bb3.png

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From here a situation is developing that resembles recent events with the upper trough in mid Atlantic being split by the burgeoning Azores high pressure creating another cut off low which will track south east and boost the low pressure to our south as the ridging high enters a new phase.Meanwhile back at the ranch another warm day with thundery outbreaks spreading north but again temps along the north east coast somewhat depressed in the brisk north easterly wind.

gfs_z500a_natl_12.thumb.png.c857ed0b7b54403faf8265f9742b90a0.pnggfs_ptype_slp_eur3_12.thumb.png.8eca074ea3a3a04858f3cec8de9cffe9.pnggfs_t2max_c_uk2_12.thumb.png.75733daab3f0aece4ac6d9f3c07cb18c.png

Wednesday and Thursday will be warm or very warm with temps above average with the west coast of Scotland getting a bonus. But showery outbreaks will push north through England and Wales associated with an occlusion during the two days

PPVM89.thumb.gif.1e1e601a504acf97a90ea9d86ea1b166.gifgfs_ptype_slp_uk2_16.thumb.png.dcb5228ac85d07ea3b7f276955b3caec.pnggfs_t2max_c_uk2_16.thumb.png.7659e10ab303e1b20e227e460fc6fe34.png

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Rainfall as expected

gfs_tprecip_uk2_21.thumb.png.98754e69f09fa4e2ade7eb0f7867f042.png

 

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Terrific 0600 UTC geostationary this morning (courtesy Dundee Satellite Receiving Station)

The 0600 chart. High morning temps with mist and haze in places

geo.thumb.JPG.4c38b8e612bb11d2cbe0960cf27b54d8.JPG965086164_geo2.thumb.JPG.463b92d625b0561d953525c0a8244ab7.JPG06.thumb.gif.4818717345cf9b3a093687fdc7d3b594.gif

Edited by knocker
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