Short range model discussion - into 2018

[knocker]

The low cloud/mist quite extensive around the SE/S coasts on the 0900 UTC geostationary. Some high Ac creeping in here

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Edited May 20, 2018 by knocker

[knocker]

The high res. MODIS at 100 UTC (courtesy DSRS) There is more or less total cover here from what looks like high Ac but looking at the 12 sounding perhaps thick low Ci

 

[knocker]

The belt of rain associated with the almost stationary front will persist across N.Ireland and western Scotland through tonight and tomorrow whilst elsewhere will be clear apart from the east coast where low cloud/mist will encroach further inland before retreating (hopefully) tomorrow. So tomorrow will generally be another warm day, enough to trigger some convection in southern areas with the odd thunderstorm

 

Edited May 20, 2018 by knocker

[knocker]

Something to keep an eye on tomorrow as the ecn tracks a trough north west over Thursday with more concentrated convective activity quite likely embedded.

[knocker]

Today marks the transition to the next phase of this fine spell of weather (not forgetting that this hasn't, and isn't the case, in N. Ireland and north west Scotland). as the amplifying north east of the Atlantic ridge disrupts the main trough and forges a corridor to the Scandinavian high pressure. This essentially sets the pattern for the next few days and through the holiday weekend with high pressure to the north and north east dominating proceedings and with an unstable low pressure area to the south an easterly regime over the UK is set in motion with the Atlantic trough relegated to the west by the aforementioned corridor.

The detail for the next few days.

Today - The front and band of rain is still affecting N. Ireland ans western Scotland and will continue to do so through the day and evening with some heavy pulses traveling along it whilst elsewhere after a clear night another warm, very warm, day beckons once fog and low cloud has receded from eastern coastal areas although it will still be a tad cooler here. But cloud will bubble up in central southern and western areas that could lead to isolated thunderstorms.

By Tuesday there is a new high cell north of Scotland where the decaying front is still lingering albeit the rain has died out but temps around the region remain depressed Elsewhere  Another very warm sunny day with again the chance of thunderstorms in the south. The usual caveat vis temps along coasts, particularly the east coast with the onshore wind.

By Wednesday the center of the high has shifted northeast and whilst warm and sunny conditions continue to dominate in many areas with again the risk of thundery outbreaks, temps in northern Scotland and eastern coastal areas decidedly cooler in comparison.

On Thursday the aforementioned 'corridor' to the west is in full swing and with the low pressure to the south pushing north a trough does likewise bringing more concentrated convective outbreaks to the south and west in the freshening easterly wind.

A similar story on Friday vis the risk of thundery outbreaks in the south and again another warm day but with a definite westerly bias and cooler in the eastern half of the country with possible some low cloud and mist along the coast.

The rainfall distribution reflects the above - hopefuly

Edited May 21, 2018 by knocker

[knocker]

This morning's 0600 UTC geostationary. There is currently almost total cover of thick Ci here and looking at the 00 sounding a lot of cloud above what I assume is a frontal surface at 500mb I don't know how accurate these forecast soundings are but looking at one at random this afternoon there certainly seems potential for some impressive convection.

[knocker]

The trough with more concentrated convection on Thursday

[knocker]

The 0900 UTC geostationary showing a lot of thick ci down the western edge of the mainland and a wodge of cloud associated with the trough off of the Kent coast

 

[knocker]

[knocker]

The high res. MODIS at 1342 UTC

[knocker]

A quick glance at tomorrow.

The frontal rain wqill finally clear the far north west overnight so much drier tomorrow but with the high cell now positioned to the north of Scotland onshore north east winds are the order of the day so much cooler over Scotland and the north east than Wales and the rest of England. Here it should be another fine and sunny day in most areas with the usual caveat vis coastal regions. Stil the chance of the odd thundery outbreak in central and western regions

[knocker]

The GEFS short range anomaly this evening is very much as one would expect with the twin vortex lobes Greenland and northern Russia with the Azores ridging north east 'topping' up the Scandinavian high. whilst the cut off upper low maintains it's key role just west of Iberia. Thus the strong westerly jet backing south west in mid Atlantic around the block

It does make a poor attempt to breech the ridge on Wednesday with an active front south of Iceland

But this is soon snipped in the bud with another north east surge of the HP and with the low pressure over France pushing north a trough will introduce more concentrated convective activity into the south.

 

Edited May 21, 2018 by knocker

[Andy Bown]

Do you think Thursdays front/trough could be thundery Knocker?

Tv forecasts and various phone apps (including Met Office) showing an occlusion and light rain.

[knocker]

22 minutes ago, Andy Bown said:

Do you think Thursdays front/trough could be thundery Knocker?

Tv forecasts and various phone apps (including Met Office) showing an occlusion and light rain.

The latest fax has a trough sneaking up and there is some potential in the atmosphere but I've also noticed the MET aren't getting overly interested so I guess not Andy

The ecm take on it and does look like a belt of rain.

Edited May 21, 2018 by knocker

[knocker]

Very nice 1800 UTC geostationary showing the convection

 

[knocker]

The rain that has been plaguing north west Scotland will finally peter out today but still leaving a legacy of cloud which will gradually thin out from the south west. But low cloud and mist over eastern Scotland will persist, and  even own as far as north east England, and this will depress the temp in these areas whilst further south it will generally be another, warm, sunny day which again could trigger some downpours.

Overnight the low cloud and fog will become quite extensive over the eastern part of the country but clearing quickly in the morning but still much cooler along eastern coastal areas in the on shore breeze whilst elsewhere should be another warm and sunny day, albeit still the possibility of the rogue shower. Out to the west south of Iceland an active front sits thanks to temporary foray from the upper trough to disrupt the SW/NE high pressure 'corridor'

I say temporary foray because by Thursday  high pressure is once more surging north east west of Ireland whilst whilst a trough in the low pressure to the south pushes north bringing rain to the south, perhaps some convective outbreaks embedded? and at the same time initiating a quite brisk easterly over the southern half of the country. So still quite warm but again cooler along eastern coasts.

The band of rain/showers continues to push north overnight and through Friday whilst the high cell to the west moves north east, all of which accomplishes two things. A variable temp spread over England and Wales and of course the east coast as the brisk easterlies have spread themselves further north

The trough continues north through saturday but is of little consequence by now whilst the high cell is now west of southern Norway (the alignment of this over the next couple of days is quite important) whilst down south the low pressure is pushing north along with some convective activity which could well bring some heavy thundery outbreaks to the south and west. This scenario introduces quite a spread of temps across the whole of the country but the jockeying for position of the main players High to the NE and low pressure to the SW) has introduced warmer air into the for south.

Edited May 22, 2018 by knocker

[knocker]

There seems to be more cloud over Wales and the south west than anticipated, 8/8 St down here. on the 0600 UTC geostationary (courtesy DSRS)

[knocker]

Convective activity moving up from France on Saturday according to the ecm

[knocker]

The high res. MODIS at 1100 UTC pretty much as expected now that the morning cloud has finally cleared from the south west

Edited May 22, 2018 by knocker

[knocker]

As I'm temporarily out of commission again with a flare up of gout in my wrists, (just waiting for a new course of steroids to kick in) I thought a quick look at the medium term anomalies would be in order.

They are all on the same page with twin vortex lobes northern Canada and north Russia with associated cold troughs down into the north west Atlantic and eastern Europe and downstream there is the combined Azores/Scandinavian block and the upper low over Iberia, Thus the strong westerly jet exiting North America continues to diverge in mid Atlantic around the block or the low pressure to the south

This the eastern Atlantic and swathes of western Europe, including the UK and France in an exceedingly slack pressure gradient as the two systems interact. The weather detail that will evolve from this will be difficult to pin down at this range and the det runs will sort it in time but certainly it looks like temps remaining above average with plenty of dry and sunny weather but unstable outbreaks probably a good percentage play, if not home grown a present from France.

[johnholmes]

1 hour ago, knocker said:

As I'm temporarily out of commission again with a flare up of gout in my wrists, (just waiting for a new course of steroids to kick in) I thought a quick look at the medium term anomalies would be in order.

They are all on the same page with twin vortex lobes northern Canada and north Russia with associated cold troughs down into the north west Atlantic and eastern Europe and downstream there is the combined Azores/Scandinavian block and the upper low over Iberia, Thus the strong westerly jet exiting North America continues to diverge in mid Atlantic around the block or the low pressure to the south

This the eastern Atlantic and swathes of western Europe, including the UK and France in an exceedingly slack pressure gradient as the two systems interact. The weather detail that will evolve from this will be difficult to pin down at this range and the det runs will sort it in time but certainly it looks like temps remaining above average with plenty of dry and sunny weather but unstable outbreaks probably a good percentage play, if not home grown a present from France.

Hope you soon are back to full posting style k. Your posts in here are a model, in my view, as to how to show what the models are indicating without the biase shown from cold and mild supporters in the other thread.

I still wince at your term for the trough explanation but I'll forgive you!

ps I also agree with your summation of the 500 mb anomaly charts. Looking settled not unsettled but how warm is uncertain, or indeed how often any thundery bursts may occur.

 

[knocker]

Not much bubbling up by the looks of the 1500 geostationary

The low cloud/mist will become fairly extensive down the eastern coast this evening and over night before another similar day to today with NE?E coastal areas cooler in the onshore wind.

[seaside 60]

6 hours ago, knocker said:

The high res. MODIS at 1100 UTC pretty much as expected now that the morning cloud has finally cleared from the south west

I notice in the north sea a couple of areas of light blue ish colour.
Is that sand banks or planton bloom, I have seen them before but its really noticeable on this image.

There is a similar lesser one running of the EA coast.
Thanks for you time.

Edited May 22, 2018 by seaside 60

[knocker]

2 minutes ago, seaside 60 said:

I notice in the north sea a couple of areas of light blue ish colour.
Is that sand banks or planton bloom, I have seen them before but its really noticeable on this image.
Thanks for you time.

An interesting question but I'm afraid I have no idea what the correct answer is. Will endevour to find out. It's still there on a later image

[knocker]

1 hour ago, seaside 60 said:

I notice in the north sea a couple of areas of light blue ish colour.
Is that sand banks or planton bloom, I have seen them before but its really noticeable on this image.

There is a similar lesser one running of the EA coast.
Thanks for you time.

Had a quick reply from Dundee and confirmation that it is an Algal bloom.

Edited May 22, 2018 by knocker