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Short range model discussion - into 2018


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
3 hours ago, knocker said:

I mere lo use it, rightly or wrongly John, to denote when the axis of an upper trough has 'split or become 'deformed' under some form of external pressure, often as the result of a major block within the  general pattern'. Resulting, as in the current scenario, you often get cut off upper lows escaping along the path of least resistance towards other low pressure areas when the prime energy path is diverted.

okay thanks for the explanation k, never seen it used anywhere else so just curious-cheers

 

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

This morning's updated fax charts for Sunday/Monday basically confirming the above with the front(s) stalled close to Ireland and western Scotland thus cloud and patchy rain here and with the odd trough floating about some showery (thundery?) outbreaks in the south

PPVI89.thumb.gif.b4b519465b9fcc45e412f8a5e202ceaf.gifPPVJ89.thumb.gif.3f6d93f4853e8bb871bbb84f07d68476.gifPPVK89.thumb.gif.6bd1d4a99fb19e99a3aec0dc10d0fd2c.gif

PPVL89.thumb.gif.243c124db645d1ad706e1f1b5aebace5.gif

The 0600 UTC geostationary showing the frontal cloud in the north west and other cloud over East Anlia and the south west. There is almost total Ci cover here at the moment with some Ac Floccus.

2106857444_geo2.thumb.JPG.a73f477ba07db327e7d868f9d0713420.JPG

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
35 minutes ago, Ice Man 85 said:

Looking pretty nasty is you don't like it too warm. Once again what was modelled as pleasant will turn into hot and uncomfortable.

How about instead of constant commenting about how much you don't like heat you actually show some charts?

If anyone posted in the winter period along the opposite lines, ie a mild preference, the forum would be in uproar.

I fully accept some folk have physical issues with hot weather or cold weather but your posts hardly ever show what is 'nasty' 'awful' et.

The charts from any model does show not much in the way of cooler weather on average but neither is there, to me any sign, of unusual heat.

No charts for once from me but check out the last GFS or ECMWF or for closer range the Met O charts?

For the 6-15 day range then the links below show that, on balance, our weather is more likely to be settled rather than unsettled but with exceptions.

More changeable for the NW and with the threat of thundery outbreaks from time to time for some more southern area.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The EPS is along the same lines as the GEFS.

ecm_eps_z500a_5d_nh_8.thumb.png.6efed5d9641cc4053d9a9fe614e64e1f.png

The move of the vortex does show up very well on the ecm det run which facilitates the renewed ridging north east and the start of the next regime.

ecm_z500_anom_natl_3.thumb.png.101e205ae78f71bb3d74032530066173.pngecm_z500_anom_natl_5.thumb.png.7a8485e020266c4d8e907185dd1e403f.png

 

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

Temperatures predictions from the Arpege for the weekend

arpegeuk-41-26-0.png?18-18   arpegeuk-41-50-0.png?18-18   

 

20-21C tomorrow, 21-23C on Sunday in general (Maybe higher in favoured locations), just pleasantly warm away from NW Scotland and Northern Ireland on Sunday where a front will bring spells of light to moderate rain at times. 

Next week looks like approaching the very warm category with the risk of showers developing from Monday onwards.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The weekend will be warm and sunny with some exceptions.

Today after a chilly start it will warm up quickly with plenty of sunshine. It may be a little filtered still in north west Scotland where the front is still adjacent and low cloud and mist will still be a feature along the south east coasts so temps down here. As they will be a tad in other coastal areas as the sea breeze kicks in. The low cloud and mist may become more extensive through the evening and overnight which again will be quite cool under clear skies. But by 00 Sunday cloud and rain with a freshening wind will encroach N. Ireland and western Scotland as fronts associated with the low over Iceland track east.

PPVA89.thumb.gif.6efcb8351ba44f1ca45dafc7793ba3c9.gifPPVE89.thumb.gif.4f95304eb067bd17238da9eacb3728e3.gifPPVG89.thumb.gif.3e6c9cf11666e3159f1e1f68f17a62b2.gif

2mtemp_015.thumb.jpg.0815635d5c2001da56b98ea67315373e.jpg

Through Sunday the front tracks a little further south east thus continuing patchy rain with cooler temps and quite breezy in the north west whilst elsewhere the ridge continues to dominate and another warm and sunny day will unfold with the same caveat vis low cloud in the east  and sea breezes.

PPVI89.thumb.gif.96e1285ee37414a827007c54e9d22a4b.gifgfs_t2max_c_uk2_8.thumb.png.5f50f063e24387476f149f8ba74b8dc7.png

Monday will be another very warm and sunny day for most, the exception being the west of N. Ireland and the Western Isles where the front is still loitering. But changes are afoot to the west. Another cut off upper low has formed west of Iberia, courtesy of renewed ridging north east of the Atlantic high pressure, which invigorates the low pressure to the south which moves north introducing an easterly and perhaps some convective activity.in the south as the ridge is pushed north east.

gfs_ptype_slp_eur3_12.thumb.png.f7222f124eb9d4410d252011bb123b2c.pnggfs_t2max_c_uk2_12.thumb.png.823058a14f0c3f054dbe22998191116a.png

gfs_z500a_natl_12.thumb.png.f79c2c306895d1c73b71c284e20f7272.pnggfs_uv250_natl_12.thumb.png.8a2d25f593e84e20e9901e3d8aaecb1c.png

By Tuesday this has resulted in a high cell north of the UK and with the aforementioned low pressure safely ensconced to the south there is a light easterly over the UK leading to another very warm day, apart from the north of Scotland where the front is still lingering. Still a risk of some thundery outbreaks over central England and Wales.

PPVM89.thumb.gif.07e7aefc5e1aa1692adf9e638f9c6c4c.gifgfs_t2max_c_uk2_16.thumb.png.97ee66841a6ead1ef4cc5563897a6eef.png

A not dissimilar story on Wednesday except the high pressure has shifted north east over Scandinavia albeit still maintaining the easterly over the UK and still the possibility of convective activity in the south in what will be another warm and sunny day for everyone.

gfs_ptype_slp_eur3_20.thumb.png.83555a9811f51e58a12c1804e6da20c0.pnggfs_t2max_c_uk2_20.thumb.png.ff027e6a481e228cfc9c129d9d5c9d0e.png

According to the gfs around now is rather a key time as the upper trough to the south gets a further boost which tends to establish an anticyclonic/low pressure north south split but which will prevail?

gfs_z500a_natl_21.thumb.png.ccd7bf3cd228d2805efb9bb314f10826.png

 

 

 

 

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Max temps Tuesday/Weds and maybe the odd showery outbreak according to the ecm The general short range evolution is very similar to the gfs

704264524_maxtues.thumb.png.592d3d8764ef40622627eb67ed0590a5.png1609056456_maxweds.thumb.png.6c4ea8c9847eb34c968c5009f21eaf5f.png

 

rain tues.png236720774_rainweds.thumb.png.3f6995e16b9e8999034793c56a182aa8.png

 

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Folkestone, Kent 101ft/30m ASL
  • Location: Folkestone, Kent 101ft/30m ASL
10 hours ago, draztik said:

a truly informative thread. thank you knocker. 

Agreed, this is where I come first each morning to see what’s happening

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Posted
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Varied and not extreme.
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
1 hour ago, OldLandRover said:

+1

Thanks for all your posts in here Knocker, much appreciated.

+2.

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The sat. image above indicates some Ci here and that is the case. After wall to wall blue sky this morning a fair bit ci appeared around lunchtime along with some small Cu which is also indicated on the 1200 sounding.

2018051912.03808.skewt_parc.thumb.gif.2153aeb2e149bad83caa158ad5fde3a0.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

A clear evening and night for most areas but low cloud will ingress a tad inland over East Anglia and the south east and similarly patchy mist along the south the south coast will persist. And a front which will not progress much further will bring cloud and patchy rain into N. Ireland and Scotland during the early hours and tomorrow whilst elsewhere another warm and sunny day, perhaps a degree or two higher than today.

PPVG89.thumb.gif.4cad1fa2960843ed26abf5ea71d16d15.gif

1378707795_rain1.thumb.png.595684218453fbb0d2464bc87830fb97.png2069594625_rain2.thumb.png.422012c009f1c9214bccdf7cd6460b47.png593423218_rain3.thumb.png.9e9beff6db1ccfcfd84dfc915e6482e3.png

614740102_rain4.thumb.png.094852cdd228735e83c855614794cacd.png1315144417_rain5.thumb.png.758f2b08247075633d1279f53580895a.png495478169_rain6.thumb.png.7ffeee89f3dcad8a90f07c2a85fd93c0.png

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The short range GEFS anomaly showing the vortex west of southern Greenland, intensifying high pressure to the north east and the cut off upper low that has formed during the run west of Iberia. Thus the strong westerly jet mainly backs south west in mid Atlantic, courtesy of the block, whilst a subsidiary arm tracks south around the cut off low. This leaves the UK in a very slack pressure gradient but tending to a high/low north south split.which of course is no big surprise

gefs_z500a_5d_nh_29.thumb.png.ceffbe657f34b3706a01e0a6d458f5d1.png

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Summary

Fine, warm, and dry but there are exceptions

Currently a band of light rain is across N. Ireland and central Scotland which will not progress much further south east against the block during the day. On the contrary it will move back the way a tad this evening and over night resulting in a substantial accumulation over the western Isles. Elsewhere it's been a clear night apart from the east and south east coasts where low cloud pushed a little inland. also some patchy mist/fog along the south coast. This will generally clear during the day  So another very warm day beckons for but cooler where the sea breeze in. The gfs temps are probably under cooked but it does give an idea of the range.

PPVA89.thumb.gif.ec8124261eb39d5b61556d64de87bb80.gifPPVE89.thumb.gif.65817d9815822cec474dca05c4b3b67c.gifPPVG89.thumb.gif.75a2ea9bd75e140eed8c9f913495639d.gif

867319343_rain15.thumb.png.1b5ba07ed91b65e36a283c2a43bf83a8.png1036492685_rain18.thumb.png.c096fcc0b6578b63130c554e4311abe4.png1813169326_rain21.thumb.png.2eb63f3d7d466feb6fca0c276be22730.png

gfs_t2max_c_uk2_4.thumb.png.1268180a0766f7ef7c2fe66601bcc0b3.png

So tomorrow continuing wet over the north west  although it may slowly clear later and once the low cloud has cleared the east anther very warm day with the chance of thundery showers developing in central/southern areas, and the usual caveat vis sea breezes and of course across N. Ireland and the north west of Scotland where the front and rain severely depresses the temps.

633364137_rain03.thumb.png.039a39b3fd1ddf6193ac830437470882.png1608750433_rain06.thumb.png.e7384d64516681c31c60dfde53a6ef60.png181020056_rain09.thumb.png.1cf6380e597758d7d5c0315731c74eb9.png

totalprecip_d02_42.thumb.png.db9a683ebae0cb06d7c63296992fe6bb.pnggfs_t2max_c_uk2_8.thumb.png.0296965f23dfaebaa450016130eb00d8.png

But a key move on Monday vis the overall evolution is the high pressure once again amplifying north east creating another cut off low that slips south east towards the low pressure in the western Mediterranean

gfs_z500a_natl_8.thumb.png.89bdb53756e17caa3d6a28ca3dbec16b.pnggfs_uv500_natl_8.thumb.png.72b288c6144a9d726b78ad3a5602bd23.png

On Tuesday the result of all of this sees a new surface high cell north of Scotland with a broad area of low pressure to the south thus an easterly regime over the UK which will bring cooler temps the east coast and perhaps some mist/low cloud whilst elsewhere will have another warm and sunny day with a continuing risk of thunderstorms in southern areas.

gfs_ptype_slp_eur3_12.thumb.png.1645cfc8f5b43f34807110d00ae9bcfb.pnggfs_t2max_c_uk2_12.thumb.png.f1bc4a3df6d3d37d2d08e41f2a8b98c2.png

A very similar story over the next two days as the high cell relocates over Scandinavia and the area of low pressure persists to the south with the continuing risk of thundery outbreaks in the south and west

PPVM89.thumb.gif.85d7acce542ebf4ff6184919e84f3d0d.gifgfs_ptype_slp_uk2_16.thumb.png.5e94b7622dced528f56ddb7f145551b1.pnggfs_t2max_c_uk2_16.thumb.png.1e017d31ce5c75146f635143cd2f2e5b.png

PPVO89.thumb.gif.f0cea61c6bd1fe514472f3c72f37ab15.gifgfs_t2max_c_uk2_20.thumb.png.feac5ed734d1afc21fdb979966c82648.png

 

 

 

Edited by knocker
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