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Short range model discussion - into 2018


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Abingdon - 55m ASL - Capital of The Central Southern England Corridor of Winter Convectionlessness
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Snow>Freezing Fog; Summer: Sun>Daytime Storms
  • Location: Abingdon - 55m ASL - Capital of The Central Southern England Corridor of Winter Convectionlessness
6 hours ago, knocker said:

The new pattern continues to become established over Saturday with strong easterly/ south easterly winds affecting all of the UK and much colder with snow showers quite likely in the east and south with a dying cold front moving slowly west.

PPVM89.thumb.gif.f8e1c00b4289b5ce2947419b509d9391.gif

 

4 hours ago, knocker said:

The updated morning fax's through Friday/Saturday and the indications of snow showers  on Saturday. What one would call the morning clarification :)

PPVL89.thumb.gif.c625f8578c8ffa85cd95b5f02208348c.gif

Hi,

you describe the cold front as a weakening feature, but I thought that a cold front with dots rather than lines between the triangles was a developing feature?

Cheers,

TE

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
1 hour ago, The Enforcer said:

 

Hi,

you describe the cold front as a weakening feature, but I thought that a cold front with dots rather than lines between the triangles was a developing feature?

Cheers,

TE

You are quite correct, a line with a bar through indicates weakening. Must try harder knocker.:shok:

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Posted
  • Location: Abingdon - 55m ASL - Capital of The Central Southern England Corridor of Winter Convectionlessness
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Snow>Freezing Fog; Summer: Sun>Daytime Storms
  • Location: Abingdon - 55m ASL - Capital of The Central Southern England Corridor of Winter Convectionlessness
10 minutes ago, knocker said:

You are quite correct, a line with a bar through indicates weakening. Must try harder knocker.:shok:

Appreciate the clarification. A promising development for those who like snow-bearing cold fronts, although met office snow warnings just out ignore this feature with snow warnings late Friday/early Saturday and during Sunday, but nothing when the front is there. Must indicate very low confidence.

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
54 minutes ago, The Enforcer said:

Appreciate the clarification. A promising development for those who like snow-bearing cold fronts, although met office snow warnings just out ignore this feature with snow warnings late Friday/early Saturday and during Sunday, but nothing when the front is there. Must indicate very low confidence.

The rain, snow warnings Friday/Saturday are presumably, as the GFS is showing, the precursor front to the colder air arriving

gfs_ptype_slp_eur2_12.pnggfs_t850a_eur_12.thumb.png.d6dee23eb802e753c23858b4c1722f7e.pnggfs_t850a_eur_14.thumb.png.c4fa51e5b1ed3ac2899f0efb99593a13.png

 

 

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Staying windy this evening as the band of rain slowly tracks northeast clearing the south west. It's been a totally grotty day down here.

5aa94877b7c61_rain1.thumb.JPG.88bf41e95912dd478d5b7feb1742293a.JPG5aa9487eeb783_rain2.thumb.JPG.9c00694199e610f30e503915f20972a6.JPG5aa9488473e5c_rain3.thumb.JPG.fa1466fb30fe87dcb31b4e507251494f.JPG

5aa9488ace7e3_raintotal.thumb.JPG.aa22fd9ba80fe947e60382f511d85110.JPG

The 1500 surface chart

1500.thumb.gif.0e836338ed0e63fef6da0bd69e5bf1b5.gif

 

 

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The Sunday snow potential, or not, is not going to be sorted this evening but just to keep abreast the GFS this evening is still taking the upper low into France with showers in the north and snow in the SE and along the south coast. Quite an extensive cold pool which brings us to the most important factor which will be the severe wind chill

gfs_uv700_eur_17.thumb.png.cf1ffad3043d24af1fb12d25b674b014.pnggfs_thickness_eur_17.thumb.png.5f3b94fc1ab874d7e8db62e0d8aa6e2b.pnggfs_ptype_slp_eur2_16.thumb.png.4d05e48909e22763f7008c9926714f7f.png

gfs_windchill_uk2_18.thumb.png.6bf4e21abeb75374763b4df196145b4a.png

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The fax charts for the transition Friday/Saturday have just been updated showing the cold front tracking SW overnight and into Saturday before it starts fizzling out (must get it right this time :)) when the cold air is established over the UK. The ecm this evening is showing a fair bit of snow on the front in north and north Wales

PPVI89.thumb.gif.af34bc01aac481186e77ea0d6e553315.gifPPVJ89.thumb.gif.82fce2c2e22db143717c5118501723fd.gifPPVK89.thumb.gif.287c52a78104080b370efcbc2b55ebd7.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Abingdon - 55m ASL - Capital of The Central Southern England Corridor of Winter Convectionlessness
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Snow>Freezing Fog; Summer: Sun>Daytime Storms
  • Location: Abingdon - 55m ASL - Capital of The Central Southern England Corridor of Winter Convectionlessness
46 minutes ago, knocker said:

The fax charts for the transition Friday/Saturday have just been updated showing the cold front tracking SW overnight and into Saturday before it starts fizzling out (must get it right this time :)) when the cold air is established over the UK. The ecm this evening is showing a fair bit of snow on the front in north and north Wales

PPVI89.thumb.gif.af34bc01aac481186e77ea0d6e553315.gifPPVJ89.thumb.gif.82fce2c2e22db143717c5118501723fd.gifPPVK89.thumb.gif.287c52a78104080b370efcbc2b55ebd7.gif

An existing rather than a developing front this time, but has already reached the west coast by 12pm Saturday, when it does weaken. The snow warning for late Friday/early Saturday was eastern coastal counties only, so I'd expect this to get extended further westwards on the basis of these charts and what you are saying about the ECM output.

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

A look at this evening’s anomalies in this rapidly changing pattern.

The main vortex lobe is over N. Russia with associated trough running south west through central Europe as far south as North Africa.  A subsidiary lobe Ellesmear Island with trough NE North America, Still a strong westerly jet exiting the south east seaboard of the US across the Atlantic but with positive anomalies and some ridging to the NW of the UK and the Azores temporarily amplifying to the south west the flow diverges in mid Atlantic. This is still a mobile pattern so there is no great agreement on this but the percentage play is for high pressure to be influential during this period with temps still below average.

ecm_eps_z500a_5d_nh_11.thumb.png.e9ce8617cd889262a512c8ed169fb27d.pnggefs_z500a_5d_nh_39.thumb.png.f442b19261462682b72ba289f79232fe.png610day_03.thumb.gif.ea96ee067904617738f1443a17d461ab.gif

gefs_t2ma_5d_nh_39.thumb.png.ed24816043e43eb411dea81f6a993b41.png

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The front and rain will continue to track north east through today leaving sunny intervals and the odd shower in it's wake. The rain will fall as snow on the high ground in northern and eastern Scotland where it will become increasingly windy. Later in the day another belt of rain will affect the south west and also track north east. Temps continuing above average in most of England and Wales but cooler in the north and Scotland.

PPVA89.thumb.gif.9010198e6d5d1a95bf66750fd0e6c59c.gifPPVE89.thumb.gif.95a50b5a3c17c66f1c0b7059707d356a.gif

5aa9f4ee50026_rain1.thumb.JPG.451a1c3f1bcb3e273272d8f67907001a.JPG5aa9f4f377a50_rain2.thumb.JPG.d12c8f2d9338dd9c1e97d6de8dfe8e96.JPG5aa9f4fab2de1_rain3.thumb.JPG.cb8a84358132376bb5c31d91d08c8d66.JPG

5aa9f50ca373e_rain4.thumb.JPG.a6d20a5de6c434ec368461e083e28659.JPGgfs_t2max_c_uk2_4.thumb.png.7e758a94daa0aa4bd4dd1349ed6029ee.png

Through tonight and into Friday the wet and windy weather will continue in the north east and Scotland where accumulations of snow on the higher ground are likely whilst elsewhere sunny intervals but perhaps frequent heavy showers around the aforementioned belt tracking north east. Still temps holding up in the south but quite a N/S gradient and by 1800 the withchimg hour is upon us with a front approaching the north east coast preceding the colder air behind which is about to track south west.

5aa9f80422135_rain5.thumb.JPG.7e444d5a9463e92704e918e2707fe7a9.JPG5aa9f80abcb29_rain6.thumb.JPG.c0a405831be17a23d4f1c9ea9ce1d631.JPGgfs_t2max_c_uk2_8.thumb.png.c37b50f4fd22720f353db85f837f5ecf.png

gfs_precip_thick_eur_8.thumb.png.66a291ed37b911f68ffcaa382ec763b4.pnggfs_t850a_natl_8.thumb.png.3a78dcbb4499ad6bc205a231ae1ea96b.png

Over the next 12 hours the front does travel south west perhaps accompanied by light snow in places and clearing by early morning which then establishes a very cold and quite strong easterly wind over all of the UK with snow showers in the east.

gfs_precip_thick_eur_10.thumb.png.5c238290fe858c67fbbd547ead294892.pnggfs_precip_thick_eur_12.thumb.png.2f4add11910bcc55d7c6eceefd7503e4.pnggfs_t850a_natl_12.thumb.png.14f56675c839ce96fe7eacb02c505bca.png

gfs_t2max_c_uk2_12.thumb.png.ac0872b831a3a85a84f2f0001e5e8762.png

This scenario quickly becomes more complicated over the next 12 hours with the arrival of the upper low from the east to be over northern France accompanied by a cold pool. So now we have the continuation of the showers further north ingressing inland but also snow moving west from Kent along the Channel coast. Fine lines here and the detail certainly not set in stone at the moment,

gfs_z500a_natl_14.thumb.png.016844e54529c360dc821f1c76ea98b5.pnggfs_thickness_natl_14.thumb.png.c678382f8ab1abcfdc249e8d96259867.pnggfs_precip_thick_eur_16.thumb.png.b922c2e574a3722aa07fb3113bbcd233.png

As can be seen from the last chart the Azores is starting to ridge in the west towards the high cell and this continues into Monday shunting the very cold air south, note the WAA into Iceland and Greenland but there we must leave it.

gfs_z500a_natl_19.thumb.png.e91cd791f7d7b25aaf9fe7ce75fb470d.pnggfs_t850a_natl_19.thumb.png.557d1e3337bc4252ce9acd1eab74ce00.png

 

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The ecm has a fair covering of snow in the north as the front tracks south west Friday/Saturday and a fair ingress of snow showers in th NE of England and the south east east of a line Suffolk to Portsmouth through Saturday.

On Sunday with the upper low tracking along the south coast and the cold pool a little further north than the GFS there could be a fair mount of snow along the south coast and further north showers reaching well inland.

The wind chill will be the significant feature of Sunday with max temps struggling to get above freezing in many places.

Monday also sees the Azores ridging to the west and the very cold air shunted south.

ecm_z500_anom_eur_4.thumb.png.5aa5dfdb8b9c06c64c2952eff197a9c8.pngecm_z500_anom_natl_5.thumb.png.ca349eefb28c7d8487025d317fad3d7b.pngecm_t850_anom_natl_5.thumb.png.3bcc7eed9f014904fcc008bba35d64d9.png

 

 

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The cold pool at 700mb on the 0600 GFS is quite impressive with the 700mb temp in the region of -24C and quite moist in the lower 10,000 feet.so a good lapse rate. Even the 500mb temp is in the -35C region An ideal environment for some hefty convection and snow showers.

gfs_T700_eu_12.png

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
1 minute ago, knocker said:

Excellent high res. MODIS at 1130 (Courtesy DSRS) showing the band of rain tracking north east

ch38.thumb.jpg.c1200b8b1cb95d44bd7ee422d8b19828.jpg

What is it like to see that yellow thing they say shines from the sky? Also to have double digit temperatures? At least wgen the 2nd beast arrives the temperature drop may not be quite as high!

Roll on proper spring.

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
1 minute ago, johnholmes said:

What is it like to see that yellow thing they say shines from the sky? Also to have double digit temperatures? At least wgen the 2nd beast arrives the temperature drop may not be quite as high!

Roll on proper spring.

I'll second that in spades. Had a quick taste down here on Tuesday but as you know there are no obvious signs of Spring warmth at the moment. Actually it hasn't been a bad sunny morning but it's going rapidly downhill with total As cover now

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

During this evening and overnight and through the first part of tomorrow the band of rain, snow on the higher ground, currently over the north of the country will continue to move slowly north east before coming to a halt. Thus it will remain wet with some snow accumulations in Scotland and the north east whilst at the same time another band of showery rain will also track north east from the south west into the Midlands.

It comes to halt because energy from the NE with the high cell moving south west starts becoming the dominant factor and a front starts tracking in the reverse direction to the south west from the north west bringing with it snow and much colder air by 00 Saturday. This heralds the start of the pattern change and the snowy and very cold weekend.

5aaa8dfe401df_rain1.thumb.JPG.e1b5ee198c8dd670f8fd776b3a8f4481.JPG5aaa8e0459e28_rain2.thumb.JPG.727dd387efd506eeee58205a1edcdad5.JPG5aaa8e0aea318_rain3.thumb.JPG.aa85f00f17c510681bca597047dfc0b4.JPG

5aaa8e10998dc_rain4.thumb.JPG.f5ad75ccb8e13ec669cc06bef147bedd.JPG5aaa8e15f3a95_rain5.thumb.JPG.815da75cae4356667435d5fbe23e49b2.JPG

dew.thumb.JPG.4a1faf8d5f343be96495e7c5e8b1b445.JPG5aaa8e24ee6ec_dew1.thumb.JPG.64cd7eb9a7cbb6d84ae46408fb82fe3e.JPG

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Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

By Sat am that windchill really kicking in for many away from the far south west at this stage

viewimage.pbx?type=nmmhi;date=20180315;tviewimage.pbx?type=nmmhi;date=20180315;t

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The updated fax charts for 122, Friday, 00 Saturday and 12 Saturday. Showing the fronts stalling and reversing tomorrow joined by the cold front and then all tracking south west clearing the there by 1200 Saturday.when there is also a convergence line into the Wash

PPVE89.thumb.gif.c0f00e5edc5868220fb9a3b91bf40f1d.gifPPVG89.thumb.gif.f1fd34ac1fe82a1bd81735b20e088303.gifPPVI89.thumb.gif.1cdca081e2971ab1bca0a8fa280185cd.gif

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
6 minutes ago, knocker said:

The updated fax charts for 122, Friday, 00 Saturday and 12 Saturday. Showing the fronts stalling and reversing tomorrow joined by the cold front and then all tracking south west clearing the there by 1200 Saturday.when there is also a convergence line into the Wash

PPVE89.thumb.gif.c0f00e5edc5868220fb9a3b91bf40f1d.gifPPVG89.thumb.gif.f1fd34ac1fe82a1bd81735b20e088303.gifPPVI89.thumb.gif.1cdca081e2971ab1bca0a8fa280185cd.gif

 

Very similar to the latest HIRLAM. Rain to snow early Saturday am for my neck of the woods by the looks of it. Real frontal snow this time unlike the convective showers last time out. The amount that settles dependent on the intensity, as ever.

Will my U10s big game vs Dersingham Rovers survive the pitch inspection?:unsure2:

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