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Short range model discussion - into 2018


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The occlusion will continue to move north this evening and overnight taking outbreaks of patchy snow with it affecting Wales, the Midlands, the north and N. Ireland whilst snow showers will continue in the north east and Scotland, Behind the front showery rain into the south west, Another very cold night with a widespread frost and ice. Still some uncertainty on far north the 'warmer' air will push along the south coast.

5a997bf15cdd4_occ1.thumb.JPG.2d00462442a814b9c031d5a426135856.JPG5a997bf787efc_occ2.thumb.JPG.bf1fa21227271ab86745b062a20e069a.JPG5a997bfe98cd9_occ3.thumb.JPG.1831c34a1bc18dc7cac82bbcdd79fd8c.JPG

min.thumb.JPG.00190b4d6866b46915bb81136ddd670d.JPG

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
28 minutes ago, SnowChance24 said:

As we’ve just had about two hours of moderate snow in Exeter when rain had been shown is the cold being more stubborn to shift? Is the situation still regarded as marginal?

Not at the moment I wouldn't have thought

exeter.thumb.JPG.b82d83f5915e9397164e2b375b108ff1.JPG

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Again not much to report vis the anomalies this evening. Still a lobe over NW Greenland and ridging in the NW Atlantic into the Labrador Sea and a trough over the south east Untitled States. Thus two energy flows leaving North America, one around the ridge and the other from the south east seaboard.

The former is the flow that influences the UK as it swings south east into the eastern Atlantic to the upper trough in that area running south adjacent to the UK giving a flow over the UK between NW and just south of west. This is a tad vague because there are differences between the orientation of the ridge and the trough. Keeping that in mind we are still looking at a pretty static scenario with low pressure in the vicinity of the UK with perhaps systems tracking into the south thus remaining unsettled with temps a little below average generally but prone to regional variation.

ecm_eps_z500a_5d_nh_11.thumb.png.581aebf3518e75b9fa2ec410a543b305.pnggefs_z500a_5d_nh_41.thumb.png.675ce657ed44fc9b8acccd19aa9c0894.png610day_03.thumb.gif.4b11c39edfaa747a2500dcc352136a90.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Canmore, AB 4296ft|North Kent 350ft|Killearn 330ft
  • Location: Canmore, AB 4296ft|North Kent 350ft|Killearn 330ft
12 minutes ago, knocker said:

Again not much to report vis the anomalies this evening. Still a lobe over NW Greenland and ridging in the NW Atlantic into the Labrador Sea and a trough over the south east Untitled States. Thus two energy flows leaving North America, one around the ridge and the other from the south east seaboard.

The former is the flow that influences the UK as it swings south east into the eastern Atlantic to the upper trough in that area running south adjacent to the UK giving a flow over the UK between NW and just south of west. This is a tad vague because there are differences between the orientation of the ridge and the trough. Keeping that in mind we are still looking at a pretty static scenario with low pressure in the vicinity of the UK with perhaps systems tracking into the south thus remaining unsettled with temps a little below average generally but prone to regional variation.

ecm_eps_z500a_5d_nh_11.thumb.png.581aebf3518e75b9fa2ec410a543b305.pnggefs_z500a_5d_nh_41.thumb.png.675ce657ed44fc9b8acccd19aa9c0894.png610day_03.thumb.gif.4b11c39edfaa747a2500dcc352136a90.gif

What do you make of this precip in the channel heading for the south coast? 

A6423813-BA87-4B95-A522-0FF43B3A7D56.png

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
18 minutes ago, c00ps said:

What do you make of this precip in the channel heading for the south coast? 

A6423813-BA87-4B95-A522-0FF43B3A7D56.png

Presumably it is the bunch of rain showers that were expected. The satellite at 2040

ch4.thumb.jpg.a8de207c74d8a3e1045c12e4dcd5a1e7.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

We are slowly coming to the end of, understatement of the year, a period of very interesting weather, and slowly moving into a period best described as more mundane albeit, being the weather it will not be without interest. A quick and very short overview. Our weather in the medium term will be dominated by a complex upper trough fed by energy running east from the south east US seaboard under the high pressure to the north.

gfs_z500a_natl_9.thumb.png.3c4ced72edb98f6bed6ff9bf34b6abc4.pnggfs_uv250_natl_9.thumb.png.4e4746a0ae8d7c6c2613810eb04b476a.png

Back to more detail. It looks like the UK is entering into a N/S split period and at 00 the low and wrap around occlusion were over the south west and central England whilst the north still in the cold showery easterly. This regime will continue during today whilst further south one occlusion will weaken whilst a band of snow, sleet and rain associated with the second will push north, mainly affecting the west, from the south. It is this that finally introduce warmer air generally and initiate the beginning of the thaw during the day in the south (The sat image is for 0400)

PPVA89.thumb.gif.24c34d70921938d54c2b37490234ba6f.gifch4.thumb.jpg.7be0db62d592da00291c1209ee54bf79.jpgPPVE89.thumb.gif.bd69c19a9c15adea7186151bbeaf09ac.gif

 

gfs_t2max_c_uk2_4.thumb.png.24f1788db9ed76f53f58340d4de02736.pngoverview_015.jpg?2018030300

So in a nutshell tonight pretty cloudy in England and Wales with patchy rain and sleet in the south and snow further north in Wales and the Midlands and snow showers continuing in the north east and Scotland.

overview_030.jpg?2018030300gfs_t2min_c_uk2_6.thumb.png.5106ce887c4e3233e99bb5bd0018a8a2.png

By Sunday the N/S split is quite marked with low pressure dominating the UK with the centres to the south west. This leaves Scotland, N. Ireland and the far north of England still in the showery south easterly whilst the rest of the country is under a patchy rain, sleet and snow regime with the slow thaw continuing.

gfs_ptype_slp_eur2_7.thumb.png.1018a0fdd1ebce697ea9ffb3ca1b0f11.pnggfs_t850a_eur_7.thumb.png.e8c2827ccd68ec54eb5bd28810cfa37c.pnggfs_t2max_c_uk2_8.thumb.png.4ea06e44ac1b3a3704a7d2327ecc9f18.png

Keeping in mind the opening comments of this post vis the upper trough this is essentially where we stand Monday-Wednesday with low pressure influencing proceedings, Colder with snow showers in Scotland and the snow, rain and snow mixture continuing elsewhere as the slow thaw continues. The detail of this will vary but these are the gfs spot charts for the three days

gfs_ptype_slp_eur2_11.thumb.png.03ac8cbe4941cbbb803d77a9a8d8535f.pnggfs_ptype_slp_eur2_15.thumb.png.32694e6efc72106f4b096e39780beed8.pnggfs_ptype_slp_eur2_19.thumb.png.61d46aa004db0dc13659291b52fe5b8f.png

I've mentioned a slow thaw a few times and temps are certainly creeping up but realistically Spring is not yet bursting forth and temps are still below average.

gefs_t2ma_5d_eur_21.thumb.png.938d3f4d479ee20a0512e298e0a697a7.png

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Interesting to note that on the Albermarle midnight sounding the strong easterly cold advection in the lower layers with the much warmer air above a massive inversion of -12C at 796mb -7C at 706mb with the wind veering and becoming negligible.Gone is the convection heaven from the beast from the east.

2018030300.03238.skewt_parc.thumb.gif.4e83e1fe9e74bb1edfb0c49aa5de1099.gif

 

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Plenty of mist and fog in the south and moderate rain in the south west The Chiefs game should be okay this PM unless it's already been posponed

 

2018030309_uk.jpg

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Another classy high res, MODIS at 1100 (courtesy Dundee Satellite receiving Station) showing the low over the south west and the occlusion across France and interesting cloud over Scotland

ch38.thumb.jpg.9db346b924fc4988781af35d2af97da7.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

The notable cold spell is now on it's last legs with warmer and moister air already mixing out the cold further south and over the next 24hrs will make further inroads northwards.

Before then NWshort range model indicates one last band of snow moving north this evening and tonight ahead of the occlusions before dew points,850/1000hpa thicknesses and finally surface temperatures rise bringing in the inevitable thaw.

Images for midnight tonight

 viewimage.pbx?type=nmmhi;date=20180303;tviewimage.pbx?type=nmmhi;date=20180303;tviewimage.pbx?type=nmmhi;date=20180303;tviewimage.pbx?type=nmmhi;date=20180303;t

A look at the fax for Sunday 12z shows the frontal systems moving up the country continuing to change the air mass.

fax36s.gif

By early next week we will be under a less cold and rather damp regime with low pressure setting up shop for a while under a quite slack setup,a far cry from the crisp,clear and bitter Siberian air of this last few days. 

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Something that cropped up whilst discussing the anomalies yesterday, the two upstream energy flows. One exiting nortthern Canad and the stronger one the US south east seaboard. Something like like this leading potentially to what ? :shok:

gfs_uv500_natl_18.thumb.png.cb41d3ac0c65bc13a8d5727787b09243.pnggfs_t850a_natl_18.thumb.png.133dea45d8b937c4b42e2b888d3c0e06.pnggfs_ptype_slp_eur3_18.thumb.png.5931213e41be4358861fb5e320643574.png

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Varied and not extreme.
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
1 hour ago, knocker said:

Something that cropped up whilst discussing the anomalies yesterday, the two upstream energy flows. One exiting nortthern Canad and the stronger one the US south east seaboard. Something like like this leading potentially to what ? :shok:

gfs_uv500_natl_18.thumb.png.cb41d3ac0c65bc13a8d5727787b09243.pnggfs_t850a_natl_18.thumb.png.133dea45d8b937c4b42e2b888d3c0e06.pnggfs_ptype_slp_eur3_18.thumb.png.5931213e41be4358861fb5e320643574.png

Some quite wet weather?  I must admit I'm not very good at understanding what happens when these are two distinct arms of the jet leaving the North American continent.

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On 3/2/2018 at 10:52, Interitus said:

Good question about the CET - the provisional values go to Feb 28th at the moment, which at -3.8°C would equal the daily record from 1785

The coldest March 1st is -3.5°C from that same year

Remarkably, the provisional value for March 1st is -3.5°C so tying the CET record daily lows from 1785 two days in a row!

But on checking the finalised value for 28th Feb fell short at -3.6°C

Edited by Interitus
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
19 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

Some quite wet weather?  I must admit I'm not very good at understanding what happens when these are two distinct arms of the jet leaving the North American continent.

Wet and windy a distinct possibility i would think but maybe favouring the southern end of the country.

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Pretty good agreement on the overall pattern with tonight's anomalies but disagreement on the  intensity and alignment of the ridge/trough combination in the arena of the amplified Atlantic.

Essentially still a secondary lobe NW Greenland and a trough over the south east US with the ridge/high cell in between around the Labrador Sea area. Thus two energy flows, one around the ridge to the north and the other stronger one exiting the seaboard of the south east United States, The two flows coalesce in mid Atlantic but there is no agreement on this because of the varying configurations of the trough in the eastern Atlantic as previously mentioned. Until this is sorted the detail of the evolution will be problematic as the area of the coalescence is an environmentally friendly zone for cyclogenesis  Suffice it to say at this stage looking like an unsettled period with the upper flow from the westerly quadrant, perhaps quite windy, with temps average or a little below.

ecm_eps_z500a_5d_nh_11.pnggefs_z500a_5d_nh_41.thumb.png.beaee77a7f852778f3469fcb561ff4b4.png610day_03.thumb.gif.df143a22a6d109011c5da38acf47ffd4.gif

 

 

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The slow change to a different pattern continues  with low pressure dominating our weather for the foreseeable with upper troughs and associated surface lows being the guiding feature. It's been awhile since we had to look W/SW for developments.

gfs_z500a_natl_11.thumb.png.c1c5d6c0fc3a0170cbf027496880318f.pnggfs_uv500_natl_11.thumb.png.037f59264ada7b9b785b3d14a204bbdb.png

So today with low pressure and a couple of occlusions drifting north sees patchy rain sleet and snow doing the same over England and Wales and N. Ireland leaving heavy rain showers in the south west  Further snowfall  expected in Scotland particularly the north east The 'warmer' air and slow thaw also moves slowly north and has already reached the south Midlands this morning but Scotland will remain cold.

https://wow.metoffice.gov.uk/

PPVA89.thumb.gif.5348f03026df4a805cab0014ef9f78a2.gifgfs_ptype_slp_eur2_3.thumb.png.2ff45869f0c7a7957a8b86319a101abe.pnggfs_ptype_slp_eur2_4.thumb.png.d347db1139a787e52753a732a1332b8f.png

PPVE89.thumb.gif.834ad4c580408dc51c39504cc2210d1c.gifgfs_t2max_c_uk2_4.thumb.png.f0261e66cd3a2f8ecc151e10bbaf2701.png

The snow showers will persist overnight in north east Scotland whilst elsewhere  will be partly cloudy with mist and fog patches developing and this will be the general theme through Monday with persistent snow still across NE Scotland with showers developing across England and wales. But later in the day a band of more concentrated rain rain will track north affecting the western side of England and Wales and by now temps have recovered to be near average.

gfs_ptype_slp_eur2_7.thumb.png.c173eafc81bb08847dd2425cd30ba2bf.pnggfs_ptype_slp_eur2_9.thumb.png.7456ffadbb24dab7d833dc877d0b503d.pnggfs_t2max_c_uk2_8.thumb.png.d015ab8db9b22cdea9e238f0240550bc.png

At the risk of sounding like a stuck record this relatively mundane weather will be the order of the day through the middle of this week; Namely scattered showers with some longer periods of rain and still a chance of snow on the higher ground, some mist and fog overnight and in the mornings and temps still recovering.

gfs_ptype_slp_eur2_11.thumb.png.f9de27e88ba93dd58e3d355e729455d7.pnggfs_ptype_slp_eur2_15.thumb.png.d407d10462bbd047dfdc1646efe9d2be.pnggfs_ptype_slp_eur2_19.thumb.png.1dea50f2476c77381b89255ba7f5635b.png

gefs_t2ma_5d_eur_21.thumb.png.9b99b3217808cd3c7a163bc59fee897e.png

 

 

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