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Model output discussion - into 2018


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2 minutes ago, ArHu3 said:

February 2012 broke a few century old minimum temperature  day records over here, with temps as low as - 25C over where I lived. I never experienced such cold before 

was -36c here last week..don't know what all the fuss is about...roll on spring!:crazy:

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An ode to the model output thread... "In days of old, when Thatcher was bold and Kettley was a weatherman, Tales are told of winters cold, and snow lay everywhere, man.   The World Wide Web

We should rename thread the ‘miserable git’ thread -  So much negativity & misery in here I’m surprised people even make it out of bed. updated 06z JMA joins the euro party to 84

Find 1 post that I said it would be a convective Easterly - The problem with you ( & many others ) is you read one thing but assume another. The forecast was a blend of the GEM / ECM 

Posted Images

Worth pointing out that the 18z op was a mild outlier, just, at D5 and If its wrong at D5, well whats that telling you?:)

graphe_ens3-1.gif

Edited by snowray
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22 minutes ago, Paceyboy said:

Over the last 24 hours or so we have seen constant strengthening of the modelled Scandinavian high , especially in the euros.

Ultimately I am encouraged by the timescale at which this is occurring - 120 hrs onwards. As this gets even nearer into the more reliable timeframes i think a significant spell of cold weather will materialise. It has the feel of a classic build up to a synoptic pattern that is quite so rare - the familiar story of its development. It differs from previous(poor) attempts since 2013 in that more robust heights over the scandi region are continually being modelled.

850 temps really only need a day or so of modelled upgrades to become much more noteworthy, it has happened. The failed easterly of Feb 2012 was an example of incredible promise then let down. I would not like to see modelled -10c to -15c modelled only to be let down. As long as things keep trending positiveley tomorrow then i think we will be surprised by what may start to show regarding depth of cold.

Finally: ECM 12z De Bilt ensembles really starting to show agreement on the type of frigid weather we are looking for.

 

Try -17c then.

ECH0-168.GIF?12

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1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

Now that's a PROPER thrust of cold from the E...well could have been :p

Yes - for reference purposes, when people keep asking me why I've called something a downgrade or rubbish and ask what I expect - that's your reference point.

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4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Try -17c then.

ECH0-168.GIF?12

We may not have got those uppers in Feb 2012, but there was a great cold spell with significant snowfall for the SE & E of England on about the 4th from an advancing front from the west pushing up against a cold block. 

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5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Try -17c then.

ECH0-168.GIF?12

That spell was amazing down here. A couple of days maxed out at -3c and nights down to -10.

Further north in Bordeaux the river started freezing over.

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Looking at Crewecolds excellent analysis earlier I would rather have taken my chances with cold zonality than the mildish easterly that is on offer.

Its just a colder version of the dull anticyclonic crap that we endured for 3 months last year.

I wouldn't discount the GFS solution either ECMhas led us up the garden path too many times.

Andy

 

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Just now, danm said:

We may not have got those uppers in Feb 2012, but there was a great cold spell with significant snowfall for the SE & E of England on about the 4th from an advancing front from the west pushing up against a cold block. 

I remember it well, a real let down up here, we only got about 8-10cm of snow although it lasted, the same weekend, the Met Office 30 dayer collapsed from very promising to completely zonal in 2 updates, a very very bitter ending and not in the way I wanted.

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1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

That spell was amazing down here. A couple of days maxed out at -3c and nights down to -10.

Further north in Bordeaux the river started freezing over.

Yes I remember, it was record breaking in france, we needed the pattern 1000 miles further North really to deliver for us.

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Just now, Penrith Snow said:

Looking at Crewecolds excellent analysis earlier I would rather have taken my chances with cold zonality than the mildish easterly that is on offer.

Its just a colder version of the dull anticyclonic crap that we endured for 3 months last year.

I wouldn't discount the GFS solution either ECMhas led us up the garden path too many times.

Andy

 

Cheers mate, that actually means a lot given some of the flak thrown around in here 

:good:

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7 minutes ago, danm said:

We may not have got those uppers in Feb 2012, but there was a great cold spell with significant snowfall for the SE & E of England on about the 4th from an advancing front from the west pushing up against a cold block. 

Quoting my own post, here is the BBC weather forecast from 4th Feb 2012. Heavy snow for central, southern and eastern areas. Turned to rain in the west, had all snow down here in London from this with several inches:

 

Proves the old saying of get the cold in first etc...

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1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes I remember, it was record breaking in france, we needed the pattern 1000 miles further North really to deliver for us.

I had to keep a lowish profile in here as the coldest 850' s kept getting shunted sw through central Europe into France! :D

The problem is Feb these really bitter easterlies with that upper air are now so rare. It would be great to see another one and seeing as I'm nice you can have the coldest uppers directed right into the UK! :cold-emoji:

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12 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Try -17c then.

ECH0-168.GIF?12

That was a pretty memorable day, never experienced such intense cold, it literally  just took my breath away, on the surface the temperatures even got lower than those 850s

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51 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Saturday – coldish easterly progresses southwards across the UK Very cold in Scotland, less cold further south. Some snow showers on north-east coasts maybe getting further inland.

Sunday – High pressure over the UK very cold up north but settled. Less cold in the south due to stronger winds easterly winds with higher uppers.

Monday – Milder air pushing from the SE, however here is where things begin to get uncertain.

What strikes me is how similar to last February this pattern is. If pressure to our far SE is too high then the easterly can actually turn very mild. February 2017 is a great example of this.
image.thumb.png.f2a01cc6125b806448ef6e1a67e61442.pngimage.thumb.png.b0623127cec458d7751882b563236a87.png   

However due to exceptionally warm temperatures to our east, it will take a while to import some really cold uppers (thanks climate change!). So we may need a lot of patience but the final chart shows that the Scandi high could at least allow some cold pooling to our far east as the final diagram shows. The winter has been very mild across Eurasia and Europe so far and the UK was very lucky to fall in the small pocket of cold during December. If we get cold air to our east that would be a great help.

image.thumb.png.87f97bd364b34fc3fc3f247d72b7d1a9.png

 

I have to disagree with some of your comments. 

1) Sunday is in fact looking colder than Saturday, could you explain why stronger winds results in less cold conditions in the far south possibly this will reduce risk of a severe frost. However it will feel even more bitter, with that windchill. Higher uppers does not equate to it being warmer on the surface, too often folk are making this mistake, it could be +5C 850hPa temps from E and still be very cold. 

F7C0EAB8-0407-4DB9-9FCB-5493FAB1B2A8.thumb.gif.e77be11f9d81b877d5b8f854bae71808.gif

2) You cannot compare early January with the middle of February come by that time it becomes increasingly difficult for the continent nearby to cool quick and establish a cold pool, due to increasing sun strength.

So an unfair comparison IMO. 

I also don’t agree it will take a while...BBC extended forecast mentioned possibility of deeper cold coming in from northern/eastern Europe as such initial cold wave less so aloft may just be a taster. 

A lot of interest is there for a decent cold spell. Just look at EPS mean! I’m losing no sleep over GFS. I for one am really struggling by what some folk are seeing - I’m happy. :) 

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38 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Try -17c then.

ECH0-168.GIF?12

That was the last major cold spell for Western Europe I’m sure some record lows tumbled in Holland and other places it was a bitter first half but largely dry unfortunately. We had a good snow event in London I recall. 

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39 minutes ago, Penrith Snow said:

Looking at Crewecolds excellent analysis earlier I would rather have taken my chances with cold zonality than the mildish easterly that is on offer.

Its just a colder version of the dull anticyclonic crap that we endured for 3 months last year.

I wouldn't discount the GFS solution either ECMhas led us up the garden path too many times.

Andy

 

Where’s the fun in same old? Higher risks > bigger rewards. I for one am sick as many of us are, of cold zonality it’s not proper cold in my books - I know the Midlands has done very well out of systems within the flow, but really in December we struck really lucky to have multiple snow events. An easterly at this time of year is never mild remember last winter there were flurries from positive uppers that continent was that cold, while yes that’s not the case for the immediate future. I’m quite stunned GFS is being given such a pedestal, it’s like man going against god.  It’s really uncertain, so do not rule out anything it might not be a so boring easterly..

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8 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

I have to disagree with some of your comments. 

1) Sunday is in fact looking colder than Saturday, could you explain why stronger winds results in less cold conditions in the far south possibly this will reduce risk of a severe frost. However it will feel even more bitter, with that windchill. Higher uppers does not equate to it being warmer on the surface, too often folk are making this mistake, it could be +5C 850hPa temps from E and still be very cold. 

F7C0EAB8-0407-4DB9-9FCB-5493FAB1B2A8.thumb.gif.e77be11f9d81b877d5b8f854bae71808.gif

2) You cannot compare early January with the middle of February come by that time it becomes increasingly difficult for the continent nearby to cool quick and establish a cold pool, due to increasing sun strength.

So an unfair comparison IMO. 

I also don’t agree it will take a while...BBC extended forecast mentioned possibility of deeper cold coming in from northern/eastern Europe as such initial cold wave less so aloft may just be a taster. 

A lot of interest is there for a decent cold spell. Just look at EPS mean! I’m losing no sleep over GFS. I for one am really struggling by what some folk are seeing - I’m happy. :) 

Hello :)

1) In northern areas, yes I expect it to remain very cold on Sunday. However in the South and SE I expect temperatures to increase to around 5-7C later on in the day as the milder uppers are coming in. You are right that +5C uppers can bring very cold weather in certain conditions. However the lack of snow cover and cold over the nearby continent means a lack of surface cold being carried by the easterly. Small adjustments could make sunday colder for the south though.

2) Again this is another issue of snow cover. If the continent has a good amount of lying snow over Europe the surface cold will quickly develop and eventually allow a cold pool to build. The sun is stronger later in winter but it can still turn very cold even in late Feb. This chart from late February 1955 produced temperature as low as -25C over northern areas of the UK despite the rather unremarkable setup.

NOAA_1_1955022318_1.png

The problem with SE'ly flows is that if its not an airmass that has been bought in from the east it will bring some dull weather if we are unlucky. This isn't limited to February when the sun is stronger. January 1969 for example was a month which saw milder conditions arrive from the SSE at times because in the below instance milder African air moved towards the UK, rather then an airmass sourced from Eastern Europe/ SE Russia.

NOAA_1_1969011018_1.png

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4 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

That was the last major cold spell for Western Europe I’m sure some record lows tumbled in Holland and other places it was a bitter first half but largely dry unfortunately. We had a good snow event in London I recall. 

Some snow fell in the week before that epic cold day 2 weeks later things still looked like this 

2012-02-12 12.06.04.jpg

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1 hour ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I remember it well, a real let down up here, we only got about 8-10cm of snow although it lasted, the same weekend, the Met Office 30 dayer collapsed from very promising to completely zonal in 2 updates, a very very bitter ending and not in the way I wanted.

Was during this cold snap that Holbeach observation station recorded a bone chilling -16c! I remember how frustratingly close the brutal cold was from our shores, almost like a white walking army the other side of the North Sea, but sadly got pushed away during the battleground scenario! 

Pub run looks like it's having a dry January maybe?!! On its own yet again for the medium term timeframes. It's all about how that bombing low pans out, and how much WAA it can advect to build heights to our N/NE. Expecting some very topsy turvy runs over the next day or so. 

I think we will see things meet in the middle however, with the models coming more together from both extremities. 

Edited by East_England_Stormchaser91
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33 minutes ago, ArHu3 said:

Some snow fell in the week before that epic cold day 2 weeks later things still looked like this 

2012-02-12 12.06.04.jpg

This was the year that the Adriatic had its lake effect snow that lasted for days, they were skiing on the beaches in Rimini, many places snowed got 1/2 meters of snow. Early Feb 2012.

 

We are surely due that sort of a dump from the North Sea, Pert 18 looks good there.:D

neve.2.jpg

pennabilli.jpg

gens-18-0-336.png

Edited by snowray
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This page should be called Model Disgusting ENGLISH THREAD ONLY ' I know the regionals are out there but come on ' let us in on this please we are in the UK as well ' Reminds me of North to South KOREA in here ' we are all family and rule BRITTANIA .

So many allies and many Trumps wanna push a Button in here .

My way on things is ' Get the cold in and then Cold ice days with ATLANTIC stalling fronts .

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1 hour ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Hello :)

1) In northern areas, yes I expect it to remain very cold on Sunday. However in the South and SE I expect temperatures to increase to around 5-7C later on in the day as the milder uppers are coming in. You are right that +5C uppers can bring very cold weather in certain conditions. However the lack of snow cover and cold over the nearby continent means a lack of surface cold being carried by the easterly. Small adjustments could make sunday colder for the south though.

2) Again this is another issue of snow cover. If the continent has a good amount of lying snow over Europe the surface cold will quickly develop and eventually allow a cold pool to build. The sun is stronger later in winter but it can still turn very cold even in late Feb. This chart from late February 1955 produced temperature as low as -25C over northern areas of the UK despite the rather unremarkable setup.

NOAA_1_1955022318_1.png

The problem with SE'ly flows is that if its not an airmass that has been bought in from the east it will bring some dull weather if we are unlucky. This isn't limited to February when the sun is stronger. January 1969 for example was a month which saw milder conditions arrive from the SSE at times because in the below instance milder African air moved towards the UK, rather then an airmass sourced from Eastern Europe/ SE Russia.

NOAA_1_1969011018_1.png

Hello, I still think temperatures will really struggle irrespective of warmer uppers they’re still negative. Sunday I would expect a high of 5C for London typically warmest spot in the country, generally a little colder elsewhere, 7C possibly for the extreme south west IMO. I can’t see this slight warm up you talk of - it looks to remain cold to very cold across country as you can see by the ensembles for London. 

E5C3652F-4B85-416B-B18C-29C331CD7D21.thumb.gif.646785be257b91d6df0d09668995c1e4.gif9E684ED5-81AF-4311-8B08-A1DD4D8C6B1B.thumb.gif.9abbfc3d4df5279ad4ab5615f4841848.gif

The coldest uppers will relax, but this does not mean the cold on the surface will. Afterwards another injection of cold uppers is expected being signalled around the 10th and that’s when things might get very interesting in my opinion. Furthermore well basing this off ECM 12z it isn’t completely dry there’s a snow event for Southern England at D9 precip coming east to west, and the flow is generally E than SE perhaps a tad ESE.

F401646D-CF40-4BF2-8BFD-88D24435CDDA.thumb.png.4f8ad3d0b4867188cd0124386ec6b0b2.png

Edited by Daniel*
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