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Model output discussion - into 2018


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

I’m a nervous wreck here after that 90 mins, need a GFS super pub run to calm the nerves :)

Edited by karlos1983
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13 minutes ago, lorenzo said:

There was a cool table kicking around a couple of yrs back that illustrated the variance from pressure to 850hPa temps - this provided a lens on what 'could' be expected. Sorry - boring I know - data loss - hopefully a hard core netweatherer can dig it out, had a dutch heading..

@nick sussex

it was the UKMO conversion table

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

ECM 15 day T2Ms best yet ....

A705A27D-F1D1-439A-8392-5EC9962DF1F5.thumb.png.3290360594d637d5659fde8bd07ab23f.png

Expecting the GFs 18z to continue its move...

 

Im not steve..

Its stubbornly useless and cannot resolve split jet energy.

It will be another day minimum..

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
17 minutes ago, lorenzo said:

There was a cool table kicking around a couple of yrs back that illustrated the variance from pressure to 850hPa temps - this provided a lens on what 'could' be expected. Sorry - boring I know - data loss - hopefully a hard core netweatherer can dig it out, had a dutch heading..

I had it saved it in favourites but when I dig it out now, it just gives me an error message.

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Posted
  • Location: Bury St Edmund's, Suffolk
  • Location: Bury St Edmund's, Suffolk

We've waited so long (years) for these synoptics, and now we seem to finally have them it's such a shame Europe isn't colder right now. I know the cold and uppers will eventually come, but waiting makes everything that bit more of a risk imo. But if everything plays out like the 12z ECM we will be more than happy!

Edited by Bobby93
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Posted
  • Location: Lowestoft Suffolk UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Lowestoft Suffolk UK
6 minutes ago, Sweatyman said:

What's this rubbish? Double figures!!

Maybe it's more because this chart doesn't show cold and snow which is what your yearning?? It's possible......we could end up drawing an easterly, then SE'rly then southerly by middle next week. Nothing is guaranteed however much you crave it.

Anyway.... lets have the GFS 18z :nea:

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1 minute ago, Hot & Sunny said:

Maybe it's more because this chart doesn't show cold and snow which is what your yearning?? It's possible......we could end up drawing an easterly, then SE'rly then southerly by middle next week. Nothing is guaranteed however much you crave it.

Anyway.... lets have the GFS 18z :nea:

Nothing about the lack of cold or snow, its just that the chart is completely bonkers and contradictory to a lot..

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Posted
  • Location: Bournville Birmingham
  • Weather Preferences: Hot n cold
  • Location: Bournville Birmingham
3 minutes ago, Hot & Sunny said:

Maybe it's more because this chart doesn't show cold and snow which is what your yearning?? It's possible......we could end up drawing an easterly, then SE'rly then southerly by middle next week. Nothing is guaranteed however much you crave it.

Anyway.... lets have the GFS 18z :nea:

Oh I yearn alright!!

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

Here it is, saved it to my photos @lorenzo 

87030887-E65D-4977-B1C2-DD46E697C14D.thumb.png.6e96c3e8825b2d9297a080475704d071.png

Edited by karlos1983
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Posted
  • Location: Lowestoft Suffolk UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Lowestoft Suffolk UK
Just now, BREIFMAN11 said:

Nothing about the lack of cold or snow, its just that the chart is completely bonkers and contradictory to a lot..

Why is it bonkers......it's a valid model chart and the evolution is completely plausible. Because it's contradictory to the lot doesn't mean it's wrong. 

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Posted
  • Location: Swineshead, Boston, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Swineshead, Boston, Lincolnshire
14 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Im not steve..

Its stubbornly useless and cannot resolve split jet energy.

It will be another day minimum..

Can you back that up? The way I see it, people only see what they want to see and god forbid a million $ super computer shows something you don’t like it’s useless. I watch all models and don’t take any as gospel but look at the trends! If in two weeks the GFS picked out a stonking run most would be saying it’s the best model in the world and has out done the ECM many a time...seriously let’s take on board all models and not pick and choose which one shows us the best outcome....

Edited by Frostbite1980
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

& here we go that’s 100% Swing to the Euro / GEM blend now over a space of 36 hours.

Watch the daytime maxima tumble on this GFS run with snow flurries in the E&NE

D443504A-42DD-44F2-A1FE-457C930B34A7.thumb.png.193d464db3880d58912586f95f31e4db.png

yes definitely better in the short term, a slight improvement in heights and uppers.

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Posted
  • Location: Bishop Auckland, Durham NE
  • Location: Bishop Auckland, Durham NE

Got to say, Steve has been spot on with his thoughts for the next runs for the GFS chasing the ECM/UKMO.

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
1 hour ago, feb1991blizzard said:

520's is low!!! - its much lower than what is being progged now Paul.

EDIT : I also got 6 inches in 2 and a half hours from that cold spell.

Oooooh You are naughty.....but I do luv you! :oops:

 

Couldn’t resist.....I think I may get rapped for that.

 

Anyway all remains on track, adjustments here and there, stonker, slight withdrawal etc etc......but general theme....looking wintry and cold

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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Posted
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le
  • Weather Preferences: snowy winters,warm summers and Storms
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le

Max Temperature of-5c Over the Highlands on Sunday:cold:

C.S

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Posted
  • Location: Swineshead, Boston, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Swineshead, Boston, Lincolnshire
Just now, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Oooooh You are naughty.....but I do luv you! :oops:

 

Couldn’t resist.....I think I may get repped for that.

 

Anyway all remains on track, adjustments here and there, sticker, slight withdrawal etc etc......but general theme....looking wintry and cold

BFTP

You can talk BFTP ?

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
10 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Someone says 100% swing. Someone else says slight improvement. No wonder folk find this place confusing!

To be fair They are the same thing. 

If you’d followed Steve’s commentary today/yesterday you would get it, understandable it could be confusing.

basically that small move from the gfs completes the 100% blend steve is referring to in essence, in the short term, not mid-longer term.

Edited by karlos1983
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