Model output discussion - into 2018

[Longtimelurker]

3 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Doom and gloom? It's not doom and gloom, it is what it is. As it stands, anyone hoping for a convective E'ly with snow shower after snow shower is going to be disappointed (could still change).

Those hoping for some kind of battleground snowfall may be pleased. Anyone who likes it cold will be pleased. Anyone wanting an extended cold spell may be feeling slightly disappointed tonight.

I think that's a fair assessment to be fair...unless others are seeing something different??

Agree 100%. IMO the last couple of runs haven't been as good but I never jumped on the joy train to begin with. The trend is your friend as they say. 

[karlos1983]

8 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Doom and gloom? It's not doom and gloom, it is what it is. As it stands, anyone hoping for a convective E'ly with snow shower after snow shower is going to be disappointed (could still change).

Those hoping for some kind of battleground snowfall may be pleased. Anyone who likes it cold will be pleased. Anyone wanting an extended cold spell may be feeling slightly disappointed tonight.

I think that's a fair assessment to be fair...unless others are seeing something different??

Yep that’s a fair assessment. I’m in the happy brigade .... I think .. for now

[Paul_1978]

7 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Doom and gloom? It's not doom and gloom, it is what it is. As it stands, anyone hoping for a convective E'ly with snow shower after snow shower is going to be disappointed (could still change).

Those hoping for some kind of battleground snowfall may be pleased. Anyone who likes it cold will be pleased. Anyone wanting an extended cold spell may be feeling slightly disappointed tonight.

I think that's a fair assessment to be fair...unless others are seeing something different??

I see doom and gloom and people constantly looking for negatives. Cold and battleground snow (as you mention) is what many would take. What’s not to like?

[chris55]

My main observations from tonight's euros are twofold

Firstly, the orientation of the high at 144 (at face value) is poor for the UK in terms of proper cold. Yes the surface will be chilly with a continental feed but snow chances are limited for now. 

EC and GEM at 144

 

Secondly, and more positive for coldies in a way,  is how much mild air is entrenched over Greece and the majority of central Southern Europe!

HOW MANY TIMES have we seen the "potential" cold flow modelled to hit us at 144 ultimately end up heading down there!

Though with the temperature gradient between the cold encroaching south and the warm air coming north (to our east) then surely those SPOILER SHORTWAVES that will enevitably appear may actually help us by spinning up at the cold/mild boundary and help to advect the cold air to our shores. 

Something to watch IMO.

[northwestsnow]

6 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Decent ECM EPS 192 mean.

Thats good to hear Feb.

[West is Best]

22 minutes ago, West is Best said:

GFS wins again.

How many times have we said it?

Gold standard model.

Folks I wasn't saying it won't be interesting and that we may see some fantastic developments. Merely that the sliding high scenario looks to have been called right by the GFS with the boundary event called by it. We shall see but I don't have any enthusiasm in suggesting it may have called this right.

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Thats good to hear Feb.

Its obviously not like the op because there is always some skewer to a 50 member suite but its more of an Easterly component than the 216 this morning, looks like more members would undercut.

[Daniel*]

5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Thats good to hear Feb.

For reference indeed.

[shotski]

14 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Decent ECM EPS 192 mean.

Unfortunately by t-300 the Atlantic comes into play. But too far out to be taken seriously. 

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, Daniel* said:

For reference indeed.

For a mean that is fabulous.

Cmon now Gfs stop playing silly buggers...

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, Weather toad said:

Unfortunately by t-300 the Atlantic comes into play. But too far out to be taken seriously. 

Does it look like bulldozing through or plenty of snow chances with battlegrounds though.

[Daniel*]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Does it look like bulldozing through or plenty of snow chances with battlegrounds though.

Doesn’t look like it wants to come in easily.. furthermore it’s typically more exaggerated at this range so there’s the possibility it could stay pretty dry but very cold for longer.

The Atlantic will no doubt make a challenge that is inevitable.. 12-13th to watch for frontal snow. 

 

[shotski]

2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Does it look like bulldozing through or plenty of snow chances with battlegrounds though.

Unfortunately the high slips east & South and the trough is sat over us. 

[Dancerwithwings]

20 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Decent ECM EPS 192 mean.

op seems to be out there on it's own.

[Glacier Point]

Eps is excellent support for the op and has further cooled through days 7-11. Plotted the last two ops are bang on the mean for down scaled T2 (not raw model). You couldn't want anything more for model consistency.

One thing that looks highly suspect from both extended range eps and gefs means is a notable lack of any discernible wave pattern across the NH. That never happens, so something will fill the void...

Edited January 3, 2018 by Glacier Point

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Doesn’t look like it wants to come in easily.. furthermore it’s typically more exaggerated at this range so there’s the possibility it could stay pretty dry but very cold for longer.

The Atlantic will no doubt make a challenge that is inevitable.. 12-13th to watch for frontal snow. 

 

Sorry I was on about later on, yes I cant see it bulldozing through in the medium range.

[lorenzo]

As per above can someone post the link to the Iceland Met EPS ENS again, laptop death = links gone ! EPS last night and showed the Op as an outlier - interesting to see  if the clustering has moved in line with the old adage the pack following the Hi Res..

[Yarmy]

14 minutes ago, West is Best said:

Folks I wasn't saying it won't be interesting and that we may see some fantastic developments. Merely that the sliding high scenario looks to have been called right by the GFS with the boundary event called by it. We shall see but I don't have any enthusiasm in suggesting it may have called this right.

I don't know what will happen at T0, but to suggest the GFS has "called this right" is somewhat at odds with the evidence:

GFS 12z T216 31st Dec

GFS 12z T192 1st Jan

GFS 12z T168 2nd Jan

GFS 12z T144 3rd Jan

 

I'd call that a pretty substantial backtrack. 

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, Glacier Point said:

Eps is excellent support for the op and has further cooled through days 7-11. Plotted the last two ops are bang on the mean for down scaled T2 (not raw model). You couldn't want anything more for model consistency.

One thing that looks highly suspect from both extended range eps and gefs means is a notable lack of any discernible wave pattern across the NH. That never happens, so something will fill the void...

Its well outside the spread 850's wise though.

[shotski]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Sorry I was on about later on, yes I cant see it bulldozing through in the medium range.

Actually looking again, does look more battleground possibly. 

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, lorenzo said:

As per above can someone post the link to the Iceland Met EPS ENS again, laptop death = links gone ! EPS last night and showed the Op as an outlier - interesting to see  if the clustering has moved in line with the old adage the pack following the Hi Res..

http://brunnur.vedur.is/kort/ec-ens/

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, Weather toad said:

Actually looking again, does look more battleground possibly. 

I like the chart with the contours, may I ask is that a subscription site or is it free?

[shotski]

Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

I like the chart with the contours, may I ask is that a subscription site or is it free?

This ones a subscription site, but not expensive. 

[The Enforcer]

9 minutes ago, Dancerwithwings said:

op seems to be out there on it's own.

But the mildest solution on 7th.

[Paul White.]

Lol I’ve been reading this thread since 2004 and what I notice from reading the thread and looking at the charts is the amount of  IMBYizm. For all of the new members if most of the weather models are showing the weather coming from the east like they are showing currently it’s hard not to notice the posters from Ireland and the south west and west Pennines dislike it. They dislike it because they know that most easterlies fail to deliver to there back yard. However if the weather is coming from North or North west then those posters become excited, at the same time some south and eastern contingent complain about all of the snow being wasted on the back of sheep on some northern hill. Don’t even get me started on wishbones lol.

I disagree about the topic from a earlier post describing the GFS as a “GOLD standard model” IB had three letters that he used a few years ago to describe  THAT ECM. 

Not one model is gold standard however I expect the outcome to be a close blend of UKM and ECMWF models for the next 7 to 10 days and all of the models are showing a Temperature decrease to fall below average for the foreseeable will that bring snow? Yes where ? No idea but I hope that to keep harmony within the forum snow is spread evenly throughout the UK 

 

Happy new Year