Model output discussion - into 2018

[Troubleatmill]

1 minute ago, booferking said:

There it is dumping battleground with snow showers following in behind.

Yeh, bugger off block we need it to move east before decaying ?  ??

[blizzard81]

Everybody has basically summed up the ecm run already. The key word is 'perspective'. I am confident this will not be a classic easterly and yes, the last classic one was 1991. Even though they are rare, 27 years is just taking the mick. However, back to the word 'perspective'. This output is still the best we have seen in 4 years. Glass half full or glass half empty - take your pick. 

[feb1991blizzard]

4 minutes ago, The Enforcer said:

I wonder if they were forecast to be classic easterlies 8 days in advance?

No because the models were nowhere near as reliable then.

[koeleboe]

Snow first moving in from the southeast, then from the west, but that is miles away

 

 

[danm]

14 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

But surely it’s the longevity that contributes to the classic status? I still say Feb 91 was the last real classic, not that I would say no to a Feb 2009 repeat!

Classic in the sense that all the ingredients were there for significant convection, and it’s delivered. It gave the most snow to this part of the world (London) since Feb 91. 

[Methuselah]

7 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

As a coldie..obviously..I really ?tonight's Ecm 12z..please make it so...s n o w

It might even snow on my birthday again, Frosty?? It did in both 1987 and 1968!

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just for reference, this is what happens when Azores High interference goes right and you have more amplitude upstream

Rather than a sinking HP you get heights building NW. This was the ECM yesterday.

If you want an extended period of cold, then this is what you set the standard at.

Edited January 3, 2018 by CreweCold

[Methuselah]

2 minutes ago, koeleboe said:

Snow first moving in from the southeast, then from the west, but that is miles away

 

 

And like all the best things in life, it'll be coming from Brussels!

[blizzard81]

1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

Just for reference, this is what happens when Azores High interference goes right and you have more amplitude upstream

Rather than a sinking HP you get heights building NW. This was the ECM yesterday.

Good post. The ecm run tonight highlights the post earlier by BA about the 00z ecm clusters going mobile in the extended. 

[January Snowstorm]

Important to keep in mind that a middle ground in the medium term could well scupper the whole event. Simply from watching charts over many years I see a very fragile Easterly even by the ecm. Any proper cold uppers seem to be forever at the +192hrs 

Snow for some looks a certainty but we are far from a proper event in my amateur opinion

[Daniel*]

I knew it would be a good one, judging by the 118 new replies! Hard to keep up, the chance of snow this weekend has diminished perhaps this may come as a disappointment to some - however the surface will be cold aloft not cold enough for snow, well there are exceptions. EC shows it going very cold it will be bitter, days barely above freezing with a big widespread snow event to finish it all off, you can’t moan with that surely? 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

9 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Just for reference, this is what happens when Azores High interference goes right and you have more amplitude upstream

Rather than a sinking HP you get heights building NW. This was the ECM yesterday.

That’s going no the wrong way imo, ( I know it’s for referenceonly Aaron) there will be an assault from the west, but the block will be very stubborn indeed, and for the record when the block gives way....displaced PV scenario leading to even colder advection backend of the month 

Before then....countrywide winter event approaches....some will have better start others better backend. Great ECM, UKMO still pretty good, GEM still very good....GFS...more time

BFTP

Edited January 3, 2018 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Cheshire Freeze]

2 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

Important to keep in mind that a middle ground in the medium term could well scupper the whole event. Simply from watching charts over many years I see a very fragile Easterly even by the ecm. Any proper cold uppers seem to be forever at the +192hrs 

Snow for some looks a certainty but we are far from a proper event in my amateur opinion

You're not wrong...but some people won't be told.

You can lead the horse to water etc etc...

The height profiles are all wrong for proper convective stuff from the E, though likely to be flurries in eastern areas. ECM shows the potential for a battleground event at some point. After that it looks like it would go mobile once again.

Despite this, it sure looks a cold outlook...

[bobbydog]

the way i see it, either the block holds firm and we have steady prolonged easterlies and all that comes with it. or... the block slips slightly east and we have a (possibly extended) battleground scenario with, as the Met Office put it - "one or more significant snow events".

'win-win' situation....

Edited January 3, 2018 by bobbydog

[bluearmy]

5 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Good post. The ecm run tonight highlights the post earlier by BA about the 00z ecm clusters going mobile in the extended. 

It could be the other way around tonight ! 

Thinking out aloud, I wonder if we will see this attempt at breaking the block down actually build a new one with the original exiting stage southeast or if the Atlantic does actually come through (the day 10 chart whilst it would never look like that) we could easily see the Atlantic trough dive and slide like early December did. 

We are a long way from knowing the detail on this - what is clear is that the eps seem to have got the uppers right in the pre day 6/7 period. They have never been keen on deep cold and neither have the spreads. 

We should be looking to see how the pattern is firming up on the eps, days 6 to 8. Comparison of two days ago with today - I will have a look later. 

 

[West is Best]

GFS wins again.

How many times have we said it?

Gold standard model.

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, West is Best said:

GFS wins again.

How many times have we said it?

Gold standard model.

I must be looking at different models to some on here tonight...

[Paul_1978]

56 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

I think some are being a little picky here, I mean come on, when did we last see this for heavens sake 

If that doesn’t scream cold and potential, I really don’t know what does 

 

58 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

Not sure what the nitpicking is about. Looks on course to me. A bit here, a bit there, whatever.

+168 is fine...

 

These ^^^ ?? Nail on head. 

There’s far too much doom and gloom in here from some people. Downgrade this, downgrade that. 

It’s an evolving situation! You’re always going to get inter-run variances. The bigger picture is stil the same. 

Some people just need to chill out and enjoy the charts for what they are. 

[bobbydog]

1 minute ago, West is Best said:

GFS wins again.

How many times have we said it?

Gold standard model.

if you could just let me know next saturdays lottery numbers that would be great. thanks. 

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just now, Paul_1978 said:

 

These ^^^ ?? Nail on head. 

There’s far too much doom and gloom in here from some people. Downgrade this, downgrade that. 

It’s an evolving situation! You’re always going to get inter-run variances. The bigger picture is stil the same. 

Some people just need to chill out and enjoy the charts for what they are. 

Doom and gloom? It's not doom and gloom, it is what it is. As it stands, anyone hoping for a convective E'ly with snow shower after snow shower is going to be disappointed (could still change).

Those hoping for some kind of battleground snowfall may be pleased. Anyone who likes it cold will be pleased. Anyone wanting an extended cold spell may be feeling slightly disappointed tonight.

I think that's a fair assessment to be fair...unless others are seeing something different??

[ghoneym]

Someone may know the answer to this. How rare is a middle of winter easterly? Are they typically front end or rear end of winter? Loving seeing this setup modelled, hope the GFS isn't the party pooper that steals the microwave and poops in the kettle!

[Spah1]

While there’s a lull before the pub run I thought I’d just re-post the model output times for newbies who may want to start having a look for themselves on Meteociel. If someone can add the GEM (considering it’s recent output) that would be great. I assume all these times are still roughly correct.  

Information on where to find model output and what time of day they update.

Global Forecasting System (GFS)

 GFS Viewer

 (approximate)

00Z 0330-0445 | 06Z 0930-1045 | 12Z 1530-1645 | 18Z 2130-2245 (GMT)

00Z 0430-0545 | 06Z 1030-1145 | 12Z 1630-1745 | 18Z 2230-2345 (BST)

Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS)

 GEFS Viewer

 (+/- 10 mins)

00Z 0550 | 06Z 1150 | 12Z 1750 | 18Z 2350 (GMT)

00Z 0650 | 06Z 1250 | 12Z 1850 | 18Z 0050 (BST)

European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)

 ECMWF Viewer

 (approximate)

00Z 0600-0700 | 12Z 1800-1900 (GMT)

00Z 0700-0800 | 12Z 1900-2000 (BST)

United Kingdom Met Office (UKMO)

 UKMO Viewer

 (approximate)

00Z 0500-0600 | 12Z 1700-1800 (GMT)

00Z 0600-0700 | 12Z 1800-1900 (BST)

United Kingdom Met Office FAX (FAX)

 FAX Viewer

 (approximate)

00Z 1030 | 12Z 2230 (GMT)

00Z 1130 | 12Z 2330 (BST)

Non-Hydrostatic Mesoscale Model (NMM)

 Netweather Extra Only

 (approximate)

00Z 0430 | 06Z 1030 | 12Z 1630 | 18Z 2230 (GMT)

00Z 0530 | 12Z 1130 | 12Z 1730 | 18Z 2330 (BST)

[Had Worse]

We all must remember that mother nature holds a card hand.

The models are trying to guess that hand.

If its the weather cards that we like or dislike makes no difference. She might have an Easterly, she might not.

 

No point worrying.

[feb1991blizzard]

Decent ECM EPS 192 mean.

[Frosty.]

7 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

I must be looking at different models to some on here tonight...

I think he was joking..anyway, from a coldies perspective, lots and lots to be encouraged about. We have seen another Ecm upgrade compared to last nights too..steady as she goes, I think a significant cold spell is on the way with an initial cold surge from the north towards the end of this week which appears to just whet the appetite for the main course during the second half of next week and hopefully beyond!!