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Model output discussion - into 2018

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1 minute ago, mulzy said:

Day 10 ace - snow moving in from the west.

PS the pros at the MO really know their stuff!

Why do you say that? It hasn’t happened yet. Nor is it likely to at T240!

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2 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

It’s not anything like a classic Easterly, but still looks very good. It’s been 27 years since the last one, that’s how rare the real classics are. But who knows how it might evolve?

I would class Feb 2009 as a classic convective easterly. It just didn’t last that long. 

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3 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

So from the 192 chart I was completely correct...Too much jet across the top of the HP and it sinks away, being pushed slowly SE.

ECH1-240.GIF?03-0

but would i not be correct in saying we now have the proverbial "battleground"?.....

ECH1-240.thumb.gif.14a55b3c03a452252885f6fda5a3e23a.gif

ECH0-240.thumb.gif.06baa7a2f6d4adf871fbb61a8b1a0823.gif

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And to top it off I have already had more snow this winter than the last 4 and we have not even had a proper cold spell yet just have a feeling this winter is going to do something different!

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14 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Steady Eddie @216 - uk cold pool evident

snow in SE along the kink

 

I was thinkin wer youd gone steve especially with such an amazing ecm!!

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Updated ensembles watch.

Highland Scotland

6z                                                                       12z

t850Highland.pngt850Highland.png

 

London

6z                                                                       12z

t850London.pngt850London.png

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1 minute ago, danm said:

I would class Feb 2009 as a classic convective easterly. It just didn’t last that long. 

But surely it’s the longevity that contributes to the classic status? I still say Feb 91 was the last real classic, not that I would say no to a Feb 2009 repeat!

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Just now, nick sussex said:

 

Of course we'd love to see a chunk of the PV drop south and the cold advected west but if its not to be then we'll make do with whats on offer which is a damn sight better than whats been served up in recent winters.

 

That's exactly what we're after. We shouldn't expect anything less :D

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Just now, CreweCold said:

The positive aspect of the day 10 chart is that the airmass encroaching from the W is of polar maritime origin- means that should the chart transpire as shown (unlikely as a day 10 chart) it would possibly be an all snow event.

Quite possibly ..............as it slides under the block and takes low heights into Europe and supports the block to allow a renewed burst of cold from the east...................well a man can dream can't he.  Lol

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10 days is along time in forecasting no matter what the models say.All it takes is something else to happen elsewhere in the world for it all to change either before or after.

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1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

That's exactly what we're after. We shouldn't expect anything less :D

Lol what’s your taste in women like Crew? Sharon stone :rofl:

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Pack away the violins people there not needed tonight :yahoo:

81T8HI8oPvL._SX355_.jpg

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Just a note to say you do NOT need to have -5 upper air temps for snow, evaporate cooling as well as dew points can also aid snow....famous snow falls I have had in 2013 for example had upper air of -3

Lets see if the GFS shifts it’s chip on its shoulder

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3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Not every easterly can be a classic and they're very rare.

Given some of the crud we could be dealt in January this is a welcome change, at least all that hideous wind and rain the UK has been suffering will soon be coming to an end.

The pattern is still evolving, lets just enjoy the ride.

Of course we'd love to see a chunk of the PV drop south and the cold advected west but if its not to be then we'll make do with whats on offer which is a damn sight better than whats been served up in recent winters.

 

Alert ⚠ time to activate the  traffic lights:cold:

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Just now, karlos1983 said:

Lol what’s your taste in women like Crew? Sharon stone :rofl:

What can I say? I'm a tough bloke to please :unknw:

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1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

That's exactly what we're after. We shouldn't expect anything less :D

Of course we'd love to see that but those classic easterlies are so rare.

We'll see what happens over the next few runs but I think to be honest Crewe I think its going to be a stretch to get that classic scenario.

Perhaps we might be served up entrecote not fillet , hopefully not chuck steak!

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4 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Of course we'd love to see that but those classic easterlies are so rare.

We'll see what happens over the next few runs but I think to be honest Crewe I think its going to be a stretch to get that classic scenario.

Perhaps we might be served up entrecote not fillet , hopefully not chuck steak!

At this point

ECH1-192.GIF?03-0

I'd actually like to see the Azores HP reinforce the block rather than help it on its way SE. A little bit more amplitude in the Atlantic and we could have seen the block encouraged NW rather than S. That is what annoyed me the most about this run!

These are the breaks we can't seem to catch in recent years.

Edited by CreweCold

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19 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Far from a classic easterly. Look back in the archives to see what a classic snow bearing easterly looks like.

I wonder if they were forecast to be classic easterlies 8 days in advance?

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3 minutes ago, Snowmadsam said:

Just a note to say you do NOT need to have -5 upper air temps for snow, evaporate cooling as well as dew points can also aid snow....famous snow falls I have had in 2013 for example had upper air of -3

Lets see if the GFS shifts it’s chip on its shoulder

Very much the case snowmadsam.....as I,m always reminding people the great southwest blizzard of feb1978 saw snow fall for 30 hours with drift up to 30 feet deep. With uppers of minus 2 .........so the greatest snow event of my life happended with warmer uppers than any of the others.

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