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Paul

Model output discussion - into 2018

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216..and the uppers are good swath-uk...

Jet looks ok..

And perfectly aligned pressure, for flow and the tap..of awaiting deeper cold pooling!!!

ECM0-216.gif

Screenshot_2018-01-03-18-50-31.png

Screenshot_2018-01-03-18-50-53.png

Edited by tight isobar

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The Ecm 12z is turning into an EPIC for coldies, patience gets richly rewarded on this run during the second half of next week..Brrrrrr:cold::drinks:

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1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

I meant on the ECM- Majority of jet heading W-E across top of the block

I know, I’m saying how can you say it’s moving towards the GFS on a +192 chart when the gfs is moving towards the Euros way way before that consistently in previous runs. Puzzler, unless that’s completely wrong and the gfs hasn’t been moving towards the euros 

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2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Steady Eddie @216 - uk cold pool evident

snow in SE along the kink

 

Indeed Steve - obviously lala land but Feb 09 redux would be nice!

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The Scandinavia block is now 1040...stronger....any northern arm jet will send energy north not east, better split jet.....Longer term much better.....ECM is better for a longer cold spell..

image.gif

Edited by FiftyShadesofWine

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5 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The GFS is the one that's drifting out to sea! :D

The ECM is similar to this mornings run , the cold pooling will vary between runs  because its impossible to get exactly the same on each output but the Med flow has been cut off and it will turn steadily colder when that happens.

Theres no chance of the Atlantic winning this battle and even the GFS can't manage that.

The uncertainty is more in relation to exactly how cold it will become. I'm happy with the ECM, no major drama .

If you're happy I'm happy😁

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2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Seriously...

if you fell in a barrel of tits you would come up sucking your thumb....

x

Don't you think we need lower 500mb profile though, for a classic.

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So from the 192 chart I was completely correct...Too much jet across the top of the HP and it sinks away, being pushed slowly SE.

ECH1-240.GIF?03-0

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1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

Just saying what I see Steve...

Far from a classic easterly. Look back in the archives to see what a classic snow bearing easterly looks like.

Looks good mate.

Nothing like GFS- its cold cold cold, so much better than recent jans, lets get the cold in and see how it pans out.

AND OF COURSE I WOULD LIKE TO SEE GFS show something similar.. :)

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Another ECM standing its ground and that high looks strong and stable ;) 

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Now the 240 looks promising for a dumping, fronts encroaching without warming the uppers enough to turn it to rain.

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Yeah the west sees snow day 10 :yahoo:

Screenshot_20180103-185749.png

Screenshot_20180103-185732.png

Edited by booferking

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It’s not anything like a classic Easterly, but still looks very good. It’s been 27 years since the last one, that’s how rare the real classics are. But who knows how it might evolve?

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240 looks like fronts stalling out west. Recipe for heavy snow with cold uppers over uk

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6 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

And true enough by 216 hrs the block is being pressured SE

ECH1-216.GIF?03-0

But what has that to do with moving towards the GFS?

A model run cannot be wrong at T+96 but right at T+216 can it? The only reason the GFS would be right is because it ALWAYS puts more energy in the Northern arm of the jet until about 2/3 days after the Euros.

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Day 10 ace - snow moving in from the west.

PS the pros at the MO really know their stuff!

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Very nice ECM that was nothing to be negative about the initial stage in getting the block going is looking good just the detail which needs to be resolved :)

 

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1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

Instead of people stressing out over output well into FI lets be thankful that the ECM is rock solid to T144hrs.

From that point its impossible for it not to turn colder because of where the energy from the Atlantic is going.

As soon as the Med flow is cut off the Continent will cool rapidly, any cold pool could well be upgraded nearer the time.

Here here to that!

We cannot grumble at charts like this:

ECH1-120.GIF.thumb.png.c26f07c53b5aa2033bdb4bf0a466f404.png

and this:

ECH1-144.GIF.thumb.png.f439fe63158a70ca0c914319113f5b69.png

To have these showing up and in January offer huge potential further down the line. All good!

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