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Model output discussion - into 2018

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6 minutes ago, Johnp said:

Wtf such contradictions 🤣

IMG_3559.thumb.PNG.c8ed1cfb4ff8cc31a883b01231ebcac3.PNG

Classic cases of one posters interpretation of the output to another this pm

Some would benefit by sitting back a little rather than commenting on every 6h increment let alone every 6h run

 

 

Edited by winterof79

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1 minute ago, booferking said:

Yep uppers are baltic.:rofl:

Screenshot_20180103-164545.png

Its not about the uppers tho- the flow is continental - it will cold...

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Don’t worry everyone , ECM will be an awesome run just to help with the head scratching !! I hope

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1 minute ago, DOdo said:

UKMO= further downgrade, Lets be realistic

It isn't as good as this morning i agree.

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The problem again is that the really cold stuff was never anywhere near the reliable timeframe. And all this talk about the GFS stepping towards the Euros, implying that the Euros somehow have the correct solution. Amazing charts beyond the reliable will always get watered down as the time approaches.

Sadly a blended solution is no use for prolonged cold.

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Just now, northwestsnow said:

Its not about the uppers tho- the flow is continental - it will cold...

It's about a front pushing in with uppers +2 cold rain bud that's all, only chance us out west of getting snow from an Easterly is if the uppers get colder time for it to improve tho fingers crossed.

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3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Give the poor model a chance it’s only just worked out what’s happening let alone placement....

No real change tonight - GEM great - UKMO following with colder air day 7

ECM expected to be great...

S

I respect you fully Steve but we've seen this so many times, the UKMO is worse this afternoon as is the GEM, both seem to be pushing any cold further and further back. 

And with the GEFS not interested at all, it's not been a positive afternoon... something has to give eventually, hopefully not tonight's ECM

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Uppers gota be at least -1 -2 from the continent for a front to come in from the west and turn to snow!!

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As usual it's a big dilemma. My brain (and let's face it, the more realistic and typical scenario) is with the GFS, but my hope and heart is gunning for the ECM. I just have a bad feeling it will be the usual wishing for a triumph of hope over experience. 

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2 minutes ago, ShortWaveHell said:

Line of the day for me , genuine LOL moment 

Steve , your posts over the past 24 hours have been outstanding 

Hes right though hey!!ukmo still looks great!!gem looks great!!gfs has improved early on compared to this morning!!ecm could come out with a cracker jack of a run in a couple of hours!

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Just now, booferking said:

It's about a front pushing in with uppers +2 cold rain bud that's all, only chance us out west of getting snow from an Easterly is if the uppers get colder time for it to improve tho fingers crossed.

well its only my opinion but i suspect the ukmo would lead to an undercut and the flow would continue off the continent leading to snow across the UK  as the Atlantic moves in-as per meto update...

:)

 

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2 minutes ago, Singularity said:

Actually I must eat my own words regarding the 12z GEM in the later stages, as there is a sag to the SE that the Meteociel view downplayed a bit.

Still cold at the surface thanks to the earlier easterly alignment, but yes, not on a par with the previous few GEM runs. Does back up my chilly high thoughts though.

Tend to agree S,a chilly high looks favourite next week,dry and cold at the surface.

The constraint in the earlier stages is the lack of sufficient amplification from the Azores high to really pump up a solid block to the ne.What we are seeing is ridging from the sub-tropical high evolving to a fairly modest cell around 55/60N.

UE72-21.GIF?03-17UE144-21.GIF?03-17

The low heights across the north are the constraint so at best the high can only hold it's position for so long before it leaks away south east.This is where we need low pressure further south around Italy to prevent this.

 

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Oh really,

did you all expect -10 uppers and a new Arctic? Course there was going to be some moderation on this cold snap. It’s better than Zonal, I think the UKMO does represent the realistic middle ground

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2 minutes ago, warrenb said:

You were all moaning about uppers last month and lo and behold a lot of you got snow at -2 uppers

Correct warren, just correct!!

:)

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9 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Give the poor model a chance it’s only just worked out what’s happening let alone placement....

No real change tonight - GEM great - UKMO following with colder air day 7

ECM expected to be great...

S

But its the movement of the other models that makes it a non event. 

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9 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Classic cases of one posters interpretation of the output to another this pm

Some would benefit by sitting back a little rather than commenting on every 6h increment let alone every 6h run

 

 

Sorry was just a case if me stating the truth and not beating about the bush charts are always provided to back this up.

Screenshot_20180103-164545.png

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Think I've now completely lost the plot.

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2 minutes ago, booferking said:

 

Sorry was just a case if me stating the truth and not beating about the bush charts are always provided to back this up.

Screenshot_20180103-164545.png

Please refer to Phils post above- it would be dry and cold at the surface.....

Edited by northwestsnow

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All these runs tell us is that there is still much to be resolved, and experience should tell people that the model output always takes a while to resolve such scenarios.

Chill, before we all literally chill :cold:

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Just now, Bogman said:

Think I've now completely lost the plot.

I don't even know what plot I am supposed to have lost 

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6 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Correct warren, just correct!!

:)

Just 4 degrees colder and were all happy then.:rofl:

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