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Model output discussion - into 2018

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18 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

3 recent posts,

ukmo not as good

ukmo  ok

ukmo very good...

Love this site but it can be a tad confusing at times:D:crazy:

The high at 144h seems to have sunk compared to the 0z but I'm no expert 

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Just now, northwestsnow said:

UKMO 144 has cold air in place-

And i'm sure it will show the Atlantic undercutting thereafer- 

GFS is dreadful, again.

UW144-7.GIF?03-17

Not really, But the movement of the high from 120 to 144 is north

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15 minutes ago, Danny* said:

Cracking GEM again

GEM.thumb.png.6b4815267864916a7c83881dfa7903a9.png

UKMO is okay but not as good as this mornings run. GFS continuing not to budge.

I do get a horrible feeling this is the beginning of the climbdown.

Maybe with no zonal flow... but hows it cracking....No Candy there at all :sorry: in fact the 850's are very disappointing

gem-1-192_qjn9.png

Edited by Dancerwithwings

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1 minute ago, frosty ground said:

UW144-7.GIF?03-17

Not really, But the movement of the high from 120 to 144 is north

The 850s are not relevant on ukmo - it will be very cold at the surface :)

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3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

The 850s are not relevant on ukmo - it will be very cold at the surface :)

And if a front hits those uppers its going to be rain

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Just now, frosty ground said:

And if a front hits those uppers its going to be rain

Hopefully the high will extend north thereafter and introduce colder 850s..

Have to say though, UKMO is a step backwards from this mornings run,which is a concern for me .

 

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3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

The 850s are not relevant on ukmo - it will be very cold at the surface :)

Yea but what about the front pushing in from west Ireland when uppers are +2 are more???

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1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

UKMO 144 has cold air in place-

And i'm sure it will show the Atlantic undercutting thereafer- 

GFS is dreadful, again.

yes the GFS is still not great but its slowly catching up with each passing run after 9 years of model watching one thing i have learned of the GFS it consitly sends to much energy north i have seen at least a dozen times over the years with these colder setups being forecasts

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Highland Scotland

0z                                                                       6z

t850Highland.png&key=45571cce929cf52820ct850Highland.png

 

London

0z                                                                       6z

t850London.png&key=99ef8f6d6390ec84b0f1dt850London.png

 

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Actually I must eat my own words regarding the 12z GEM in the later stages, as there is a sag to the SE that the Meteociel view downplayed a bit.

Still cold at the surface thanks to the earlier easterly alignment, but yes, not on a par with the previous few GEM runs. Does back up my chilly high thoughts though.

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06z run for sat into sun from the GFS

5a4d06ec5155f_ScreenShot2018-01-03at16_37_18.thumb.png.77178a30fce9130fa3a05b81ce3f7e5d.png

12z run GFS for same time

5a4d06f499c07_ScreenShot2018-01-03at16_37_31.thumb.png.424486dda9c005ad3c1604646c9383fc.png

I think you have to look very closely but this will be the turning point for the GFS, a very small eastward move of lower heights towards southern France from southern Spain and a slightly more southern trajectory of energy once again for the moving block formation. It all appears to be moving in the direction of the ECM / GEM outlook. Slowly but surely for Coldies. 

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2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

No time to post just yet

but look at the GFS - how much it’s transformed to the euros

16473A5A-98CB-48A4-A139-C4874D137EF4.thumb.png.34646991951bfad5f51a3063707ccf41.png

 

todays swingometer

UKMO / GEM 10% to GFS

GFS. 60% to Euros

original estimate 80/20 looks to be about right...

But that swing to the GFS has removed the chance of Block in a good position to around zero!

Has it has been said many times by many people No one Model is ever right hat far out and what we always see is a convergence, unfortunately in this case any movement away from the GEM/ECM/UKM leads to not much of anything.

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1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

No time to post just yet

but look at the GFS - how much it’s transformed to the euros

16473A5A-98CB-48A4-A139-C4874D137EF4.thumb.png.34646991951bfad5f51a3063707ccf41.png

 

todays swingometer

UKMO / GEM 10% to GFS

GFS. 60% to Euros

original estimate 80/20 looks to be about right...

Problem is if we end up with a blend it's no good really. It's either full undercut or bust/wait for another shot.. this afternoon runs don't shed much further light, the ECM will be vital.

i have a bad feeling, based on previous scars.

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7 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

And if a front hits those uppers its going to be rain

Not necessarily, it all depends on if the blue can get in ahead of the front, classic battle ground scenario. Freezing rain could be a problem though.

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5 minutes ago, Singularity said:

h850t850eu.png

For once, GFS is doing roughly the sort of thing it looked like it ought to :laugh:

Some of the analysis has been too jumpy so far this evening... let's not let standards slip, if we can?

- and yes, I'm well aware that this run still looks too aggressive upstream to deliver what we'd like to see, but it's significantly closer to that than the 06z was, and that's an important gain in my book :) 

Looks like a correction on the latest GFS run, now showing some type of developing low to the SW during middle week and a strengthening of the Scandinavian through the upper layers as well. We can expect some correction the way from the big models as well , but in the end I think a middle ground concensus will evolve and then the weather will do what it does best to be unpredictable . Just think we could even get a Stella Run for 18z from GFS. Its to a change in direction.

 C

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2 minutes ago, Johnp said:

Wtf such contradictions 🤣

IMG_3559.thumb.PNG.c8ed1cfb4ff8cc31a883b01231ebcac3.PNG

Yep uppers are baltic.:rofl:

Screenshot_20180103-164545.png

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3 minutes ago, Johnp said:

Wtf such contradictions 🤣

IMG_3559.thumb.PNG.c8ed1cfb4ff8cc31a883b01231ebcac3.PNG

Not really contradictions...just differing opinions on the output...its what makes this thread so good in winter.

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A blend is what we are likely to get I’m afraid. It’s nearly always the way. Expect them to converge on a middle ground in 24hrs. UKMO is probably closest to the mark at the moment IMO

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UKMO= further downgrade, Lets be realistic

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