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Paul

Model output discussion - into 2018

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Just now, karlos1983 said:

What a teaser that is @carinthian I especially like the southern threat of snow bit .....(licks lips) sort of ties in with Meto thoughts as well.

Appreciate the update. :)

 

I'm liking the southern threat bit as well Karlos and it does tie in with other things but as ever I 'll believe it when I see it.

Edited by Broadmayne blizzard

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8 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

I say what I often say in winter IF we have a block around. Timing the end is the devil. It was prior to computer models, we always tried to move the cold block before it actually went. Identical now with the models, in spite of all the changes and tweeks the forecast centres have added over the years.Instead of 48 hours prior to computers, as far as a human can predict on their own using basic meteorology, it is now 4-7 days out at times with the models, due to them being able to predict so much further ahead. If you don't get what I'm saying then 40 years or so ago we would not have had the remotest idea that the cold would be here into the weekend and would still probably be looking into the Atlantic for the next storm wondering when a weather ship might show something odd happening. True-believe me.

Cold air is dense so milder, less dense air has quite a job to shift it, even in our locality. On a larger scale see how long the major winter high over Russia and China takes in the spring to get broken down.

How long it will take is hard to tell but I will be very surprised if milder air has made much progress 7 days from now and not much more surprised if it 2-3 days even further on before it really gets in. As to what happens beyond then that is outside, what do they say (?), my pay grade!

 

:hi:

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1 minute ago, Purga said:

The latest guidance is MOGREPS only goes out to T+168, at that range only 1 of the 36 did not have a easterly or south easterly in place this morning.

Reasonabe outlook for coldies.:)

Where did you get that gold from Purga? 

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13 minutes ago, comet said:

You have to remember nothing is set in stone.

Eh? But, not only are most of the models and the Met on board, but all the building blocks are nearly in place...What could ever go wrong!:D:cold:

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3 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Where did you get that gold from Purga? 

It's just been quoted by a reliable man from UKMET Karlos - I'll PM the source if you like? :)

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6 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

 

Wow that is tempting fate, potentially absolutely anything and everything! :oops:After all we are talking about a potential easterly and I am old enough and been on here long enough to have seen lots go wrong in the past 10 years or more.

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3 minutes ago, Purga said:

It's just been quoted by a reliable man from UKMET Karlos - I'll PM the source if you like? :)

not questioning it, but if there's something worth a read, yes please bud! :) 

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17 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

all the building blocks are nearly in place...What could ever go wrong!:D:cold:

A strong gust of wind from departing storm eleanor could blow the building blocks down but I seriously doubt it:D:santa-emoji:..I'm confidently looking forward to a cold / very cold spell:cold-emoji:

Edited by Frosty.

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It’s only the icon but I hope the ukmo and ecm dont follow it too closely at day 5 ........

Edited by bluearmy

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5 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

It’s only the icon but I hope the ukmo and ecm dont follow it too closely at day 5 ........

Quite a change from its earlier output that was holding the block firm.

Very gfsesque! 

Edited by karyo

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4 minutes ago, karyo said:

Quite a change from its earlier output that was holding the block firm.

Any Links? Never Mind seen it nowicon-0-120.png?03-12

Edited by frosty ground

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Man this has an inevability of gfs being right here!!aint seen the 12z so i could be wrong but its nerve wrecking!

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8 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

It’s only the icon but I hope the ukmo and ecm dont follow it too closely at day 5 ........

Severe snow storm?

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Remember guys getting a true easterly for our part of the world is as rare as hens teeth. Let’s see if the gfs pulls this one off over the euros.

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gfs-0-84.png?12

The Low over Spain is further east and the Heights are lower, if you wan to see a decent Easterly blast you need both Low heights and Low Pressure to be closer to Italy.

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h850t850eu.png h850t850eu.png

Without the strong enough initial ridge to pull the cold in that way, you can see here how a shorter-term sacrifice is needed in order to prevent the ridge from 'sagging' to the SE as per recent GFS runs; the required further-east positioning of the Euro trough means that more in the way of warmer upper-level air is driven into the flow upstream of the UK.

This being why the ECM 00z had that mediocre-to-interesting sequence of charts.

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Another small "correction" from GFS toward ECM will please Steve.

gfsnh-0-108.png?12

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h850t850eu.png

Sigh... still taking the jet more SE than S over Scandinavia which keeps it away from the likes of the ECM 00z in terms of the cold air being moved down to our east then southeast ready for import later.

It'll be a longer road to getting anything of note even if GFS disrupts the trough sufficiently.

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3 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Another small "correction" from GFS toward ECM will please Steve.

gfsnh-0-108.png?12

Yup nerves have just settled down now with that correction towards the euros!!not watch ukmo bodge this up lol!!

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