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Model output discussion - into 2018

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3 minutes ago, Catacol said:

 

 

EDIT - what on earth has happened to that graphic? Weird. Cant seem to change it....

You got an old version? That seems to happen when you deeplink to a graphic which is updated continuously and someone linked to it on the forum before, everything seems fine until you actually post. As a workaround download that image and re-upload to the forum

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9 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

It shows higher than normal heights over Scandinavia and lower than normal heights to our south, with winds coming from an easterly direction.

Drawn with Crayons :D

There spaghetti plots..and your about correct!

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MOGREPS may be suppprting the ECM, given the positive Met Office update.

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Some good news from the enso. The latest update shows a weakening of La Nina with the only exception the far east of the basin. Region 3.4 is now -0.6c below average which is weak La Nina.

Hopefully this will encourage the eastward move of the next MJO wave.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

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13 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

I'm only echoing what the met office are saying ( superb update for coldies )and what I'm seeing from the latest output..especially the Ecm!!!!:)..Brrrrrrr:cold-emoji::D

 Indeed  frosty The met have changed  their latest forecast ,they expecting cold to last all next week with maybe snow later as front try to get in from the SW.They never use the gfs anyway I think for their long range forecasts.

their own models must be favouring the cold lasting now.They use mogreps  I think as well as the UKMO

Time to bin the gfs output now I think.It would appear it’s very unlikely to verify now,with even the Met going against it.

 

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5 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

MOGREPS may be suppprting the ECM, given the positive Met Office update.

Could you possibly give me a link their pm update as I see no update on our further outlook thread other than 02.46.

 

Thanks

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1 minute ago, winterof79 said:

Could you possibly give me a link their pm update as I see no update on our further outlook thread other than 02.46.

 

Thanks

Same, I am only seeing the 02:46 update.

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MT8_Manchester_ens.png

I do not see much in the METO update from 02.46 that allows us to bin GFS and its ensembles entirely. They expect the breakdown much later I suppose.

 

Any how I think we have been side tracked by a post suggesting there was new info...TBC

Edited by winterof79

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I concur that MO update is very encouraging.

Gfs is nothing like the conditions they expect all out to 18th jan.

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8 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

MT8_Manchester_ens.png

I do not see much in the METO update from 02.46 that allows us to bin GFS and its ensembles entirely. They expect the breakdown much later I suppose.

 

Any how I think we have been side tracked by a post suggesting there was new info...TBC

It was at 1120, I’ve sent you the update - it certainly reads better for coldies 

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I have looked though the eps clusters now and apart from the uncertainty re the manifestation of the easterly and its duration, the extended looks much more mobile leaning (re cluster percentages) than previous output. Have to wait and see what the 12z thinks about that 

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21 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

 Next week is far from uncomplicated. 

 

The good news is it looks cold complicated..definite upgrades..hope they continue:):D:cold-emoji:

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1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

I have looked though the eps clusters now and apart from the uncertainty re the manifestation of the easterly and its duration, the extended looks much more mobile leaning (re cluster percentages) than previous output. Have to wait and see what the 12z thinks about that 

AKA the Extended EPS has changed yet again.

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13 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

AKA the Extended EPS has changed yet again.

It’s been very consistent for a while now 

clusters have been changing  their probability drift undercut/mobile though (as would be expected) 

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What a teaser that is @carinthian I especially like the southern threat of snow bit .....(licks lips) sort of ties in with Meto thoughts as well.

Appreciate the update. :)

 

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