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Model output discussion - into 2018

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3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Ensembles aren't backing these fanciful op solutions though in any quantity, its still the outsider solution.

Yes, fair enough Feb- the EC mean is not in the same ball park as the OP- 

UKMO on board at 144 does increase our insurance policy though but i take your point...

exeters view will be very interesting- i think it will be a shift in the cold direction.

Edited by northwestsnow

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2 minutes ago, D.V.R said:

That's heights in meters at which snow can settle.. isn't it? - not temperature. 

Height of 0c isotherm so lower is better - purple = good as its closer to sea level.

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4 minutes ago, D.V.R said:

That's heights in meters at which snow can settle.. isn't it? - not temperature. 

No that’s just simply where the freezing level is.

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6 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

TBH i don't blame anyone who has reservations- we have been burnt that many times- i've stuck my head out and said GFS will NOT trump EC AND UKMO at 120 -144.

Added to that the GEM - which has performed quite brilliantly over the recent 2or3 days, IF it has the right handle-

IF  GFS wins the duel then well, i think we are eternally cursed.

It doesn't matter to us pal imby.

We can have perfect sypnotics and still get  naff all, like this winter so far.

Slider too far south, Slider too far north.

Showers missing us to the east, west etc etc etc

So with that in mind there is no need to look what can go wrong at t144 as we've been done at t12 or less several times in the last month!!

Back to the models, ECM/Ukmo vs Gfs probably works out greater than 90-10%.

There is a small chance the gfs is correct but you wouldn't put money on it.

 

 

 

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6 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

But its ok to trot out the GEM when it shows what you want but not the GFS when it shows what you don't want.

Please show me where I trotted out the gem old bean.

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3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Height of 0c isotherm so lower is better - purple = good as its closer to sea level.

4 minutes ago, Dennis said:

its not 2m temps true - its where the zero degrees lvl is

 

2 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

No that’s just simply where the freezing level is.

Thanks guys.

:good:

 

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The issue isn’t the overall pattern but the handling of the block to the ne.

There’s little difference in the longwave pattern between the outputs.

You can’t use the simple 850 values shown in the GEFS in this set up as they don’t tell the full picture .

We’re not talking of a disagreement between full on zonal and blocking. Many of the GEFS show trough disruption upto day ten, and have  some form of blocking to the east/ne.

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2 minutes ago, Ramp said:

Please show me where I trotted out the gem old bean.

I didn't say you did but did you criticise those who have been like you criticise me for mentioning the GFS?

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Even though at the surface, the GFS solution is different, at a broadscale level (500Mb) it is not significantly out of kilter.  It is well within the envelope of possible solutions.  Dismissing it out of hand is not advisable.

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The GFS and its ensembles have been wrong at 72 along with the ECM when an epic Easterly just disappeared from sight. 

UKMO was the model to call it right that time. Just like in Jan 2013 it was the only one to bring the shortwave SE for a time before the ECM and later GFS caught on.

Follow the side that UKMO is on and you should be safe.

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4 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

ECMAVGEU00_240_1.pngGFSAVGEU00_240_1.png

The ECM mean 240hr and GFS 240hr mean chart 

They are actually not too far off from each other.

For me Kevin they are noticeably different-EC mean has the high extending into Eastern Greeland whereas GS has the vortex in that position- the knock on effect is the jet has dug further into Europe on the EC.

:)

Thats only my opinion tho, and there are some similarities..

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Today is the day, where we will see if (as thought) the gfs will be dragged kicking and screaming?! Or indeed as well as the odd one out-is also the the lead decipher model, in regards to an, evolved quicker breakdown of our cold easterly incursion.

Taking ukmo/ecm/gem-and indeed gfs @120hrs...its clear to see the different evo-is the gfs!..via micro dynamics.2

'However' i've been saying for the last few days i thought gfs would have to be dragged by the scruff, to align-with other mods...given gfs smells trends 'quite often' before other raw data...however on the other side of the coin (as now) can become quite tedious/bipolar in decipher, once a pattern is nailed.

Would be easier if the 6z gfs falls into line....but that would be to simple....surely.

Im of thought that gfs-is atm the wobbly one via cross modeling...all will be revealed...shortly.

The cold is coming.

 

 

 

 

UW120-21.gif

ECM1-120.gif

gem-0-120.png

gfs-0-120.png

Edited by tight isobar

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Just now, northwestsnow said:

EC is frigid - 850s dont look inspiring 120-168 but it will be bitterly cold with the high parked to the north of scotland..

Frigid and dry if thats what you like but having synoptics like this without widespread snow just seems such waste. Uppers cold enough for convective snow don't really show until well outside the reliable timeframe..

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Just now, Broadmayne blizzard said:

Frigid and dry if thats what you like but having synoptics like this without widespread snow just seems such waste. Uppers cold enough for convective snow don't really show until well outside the reliable timeframe..

But isn't that how easterlies work?

A gradual reduction in 850s?

:)

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3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I didn't say you did but did you criticise those who have been like you criticise me for mentioning the GFS?

I didn't criticise you or anyone for that matter, I did laugh at it being described as a top model though.

It has been shambolic over recent years and has the strike rate of a broken clock.

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We are effectively dealing with a difference of opinion between T72 and T96hrs.

The handling of shortwave energy near Iceland , the Euros eject a shortwave east cleanly the GFS doesn’t and because of that this shortwave pulls the energy from the upstream trough with it.

And then you domino effect because as the upstream pattern sharpens up with the trough digging further south the energy heads ne over the top of the high Instead of that more triangular high nosing into Iceland.

Because the longwave pattern is agreed on you don’t need to sit through the drama upto day ten although of course who could resist it! :D

By T96 hrs you’ll know whether the GFS is making a big move to the others .

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Although the GFS is not too well liked here this morning, one imagines it could have another go after mid month and during that time open to colder zonal and some potent PM shots at times. Not exactly a disaster ;-)

 

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Just now, northwestsnow said:

But isn't that how easterlies work?

A gradual reduction in 850s?

:)

yes but only if the block holds in the correct position for long enough and you get a cold pool (preferably chunk of vortex) coming round the back and then west and if you do a close check you'll that between 192 and 240 on this run the 850's warm up not get colder.

Edited by Broadmayne blizzard

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Ooz london ens..illustrated well why the gfs may well be wobbling.. 

A dip in members then the highlighted- snap of an' upward spike...before everything drops/tapers again..

Very telling imo!!!!!

Edit;..so my thoughts on the 6z being a tad too early for alignment with other models..may come to pass??

And may very well be the opening of cross suite agree!!! 6z-gfs.

Screenshot_2018-01-03-08-43-13.png

Screenshot_2018-01-03-08-43-26.png

Edited by tight isobar

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3 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Ooz london ens..illustrated well why the gfs may well be wobbling.. 

A dip in members then the highlighted- snap of an' upward spike...before everything drops/tapers again..

Very telling imo!!!!!

Screenshot_2018-01-03-08-43-13.png

Screenshot_2018-01-03-08-43-26.png

Hi Tight Isobar, I am a fan of yours :-) just wondering what you make of the ensembles for the Netherlands from the ECM which have just come out? Does that not imply that the ECM Op is on the cold side compared to the rest of the suite?

image.thumb.png.d65978399e30435043b63393139dc8ab.png

 

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50 minutes ago, Matthew. said:

One thing what is puzzling me is how are we getting all this blocking to the NE with zonal winds are 52m/s although they do drop off to 40m/s in a week but still

Whilst zonal flow is strong high up, it isn't getting down and you can see even gfs predicts an anomolous weak flow in the trop

 

IMG_0729.thumb.PNG.fca39ed99b2cd0d1277b5c9b97ff0101.PNG

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3 minutes ago, grca said:

Hi Tight Isobar, I am a fan of yours :-) just wondering what you make of the ensembles for the Netherlands from the ECM which have just come out? Does that not imply that the ECM Op is on the cold side compared to the rest of the suite?

image.thumb.png.d65978399e30435043b63393139dc8ab.png

 

It does however there is a decent cluster with it 

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