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Model output discussion - into 2018


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Posted
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...
  • Weather Preferences: extremes n snow
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...
    4 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

    This is still a worry for me....GFS is a good model and shouldn’t be dismissed 

    In 2010, GFS was the model which kept trying to show the breakdown coming in, for weeks it tried. ...

     

    I think it just has too much of a SW wind Atlantic flow bias in situations like this.

    Edited by matty40s
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    An ode to the model output thread... "In days of old, when Thatcher was bold and Kettley was a weatherman, Tales are told of winters cold, and snow lay everywhere, man.   The World Wide Web

    We should rename thread the ‘miserable git’ thread -  So much negativity & misery in here I’m surprised people even make it out of bed. updated 06z JMA joins the euro party to 84

    Find 1 post that I said it would be a convective Easterly - The problem with you ( & many others ) is you read one thing but assume another. The forecast was a blend of the GEM / ECM 

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    2 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

    This is still a worry for me....GFS is a good model and shouldn’t be dismissed 

    Dont worry Ali, jus think Benny hill music when looking at GFS..

    Image result for BENNY HILL GIF

    PS the guy in the glasses is GFS..

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: Bitter Cold in winter and Extreme heat in summer
  • Location: Leeds

    I agree. We should all be cautious. Every year one model stays away from the others when they're showing awesome charts. And the party pooper always seems to be correct. I would need to see a shift on the 6z to be comfortable. However I would have expected the shift on the 0z. 

    MO update overnight is unchanged. Again a shift from that surely this afternoon 

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    Posted
  • Location: Remote North Yorkshire 474ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: All seasons veteran of the 1981 winter
  • Location: Remote North Yorkshire 474ft ASL

    I personally don't think that GFS is wrong it's been fairly consistent for some time in fact several days now .

    GFS showed the Weak Scandinavian high before ECM and UKMO .

    And has been consistent in lasting around 72hrs before been replaced by a more milder and blustery NWW direction....

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    Posted
  • Location: Marton
  • Location: Marton
    1 minute ago, Frosty. said:

    I'm very happy, the initial cold surge from the north later this week is in the bag with showers turning increasingly to snow and widespread frosts..then next week we have our best chance for years of seeing a prolonged easterly!..if you're a coldie, the potential is huge..enjoy the ride, I am!:drinks::cold::santa-emoji:

    Yes agree. I can’t see it falling apart now with UKMO supporting the ecm. A different winter this time you can tell

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    Just now, Dennis said:

    weekend is setup for cold air

    54.png

    And this is just nicely cooling the ground temps in preperation for the main course -

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Leigh-on-Sea, South East Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Snow!
  • Location: Leigh-on-Sea, South East Essex
    10 minutes ago, sorepaw1 said:

    I personally don't think that GFS is wrong it's been fairly consistent for some time in fact several days now .

    GFS showed the Weak Scandinavian high before ECM and UKMO .

    And has been consistent in lasting around 72hrs before been replaced by a more milder and blustery NWW direction....

    It hasn’t been any more consistent than ECMWF and GEM though.....just consistently in another direction.

    Edited by ThamesStreamer
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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE

    Enough already GFS!

    Quite unbelievable to see this earlier continued disagreement however the GFS has moved towards the others if you look at its T168hrs chart the ridge extending north and that ridge from the other side of the Pacific are similar.

    The UKMO remains on board and that's the one which normally plays difficult in these set ups.

    Even with the GFS dragging its heels it stills disrupts the trough to the west.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Newhey, Lancashire ( 165m a/s/l )
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Newhey, Lancashire ( 165m a/s/l )
    9 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

    This is still a worry for me....GFS is a good model and shouldn’t be dismissed 

    Just checked the date isn't April 1st

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    Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
    9 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

    GFS doesn' have a reputation.  We only use it because it runs four times a day and is free.

    Of course it does, it's among the models with the best verification stats and thus if every single one of its ensemble suite is wrong that's a big hit for historically one of the top 2 models with the most data and money pumped into it.

    I certainly won't be dismissing it just because they don't show what we wish as that is foolish, Sod's law says the occasion it calls it right will be to our detriment haha

    Edited by Weathizard
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    Posted
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
    1 minute ago, Weathizard said:

    Of course it does, it's among the models with the best verification stats and thus if every single one of its ensemble suite is wrong that's a big hit for historically one of the top 2 models with the most data and money pumped into it.

    I certainly won't be dismissing it just because they don't show what we wish is foolish.

    Take note of the RAMP, it’s defo not 01 Apr

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    2 minutes ago, Ramp said:

    Just checked the date isn't April 1st

    Its no worse than the GEM and therefore the current solution shown is no less likely to verify

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    Posted
  • Location: Marton
  • Location: Marton

    One thing what is puzzling me is how are we getting all this blocking to the NE with zonal winds are 52m/s although they do drop off to 40m/s in a week but still

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    The trend is definitely the coldies friend, upgrades all round since yesterday, special mention for the Ecm which in my opinion has a better handle on European blocking patterns. I think most of the uk will become very cold next week..in a nutshell...bad news for sidney!:D :cold-emoji:

    imageproxy.gif

    Edited by Frosty.
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    Posted
  • Location: Remote North Yorkshire 474ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: All seasons veteran of the 1981 winter
  • Location: Remote North Yorkshire 474ft ASL
    1 minute ago, ThamesStreamer said:

    It hasn’t been any more consistent than ECMWF and GFS though.....just consistently in another direction.

    True. I'd personally like GFS to be wrong.

    But with GFS showing the cold spell long before ECM and ukmo and almost identical runs for several days now upto T+168hrs. I suppose I'm going against the grain for many on here.

    But it is was it is.

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    Its no worse than the GEM and therefore the current solution shown is no less likely to verify

    But its up against EC/UKMO

    Which makes it very isolated- 

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    Posted
  • Location: Newhey, Lancashire ( 165m a/s/l )
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Newhey, Lancashire ( 165m a/s/l )
    5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    Its no worse than the GEM and therefore the current solution shown is no less likely to verify

    Is that what this so called great model has become, no worse than the Gem ???

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

    But its up against EC/UKMO

    Which makes it very isolated- 

    Ensembles aren't backing these fanciful op solutions though in any quantity, its still the outsider solution.

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    Posted
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 286 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, Ice days, warm sunny days.
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 286 ft asl
    10 minutes ago, Dennis said:

    weekend is setup for cold air

    54.png

    That's heights in meters at which snow can settle.. isn't it? - not temperature. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    1 minute ago, Ramp said:

    Is that what this so called great model has become, no worse than the Gem ???

    But its ok to trot out the GEM when it shows what you want but not the GFS when it shows what you don't want.

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    Posted
  • Location: Norway
  • Location: Norway
    Just now, D.V.R said:

    That's heights in meters at which snow can settle.. isn't it? - not temperature. 

    its not 2m temps true - its where the zero degrees lvl is

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