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Model output discussion - into 2018


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Posted
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL

    BOOOOOOM 192 is an amazing chart....happy happy forum 

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    An ode to the model output thread... "In days of old, when Thatcher was bold and Kettley was a weatherman, Tales are told of winters cold, and snow lay everywhere, man.   The World Wide Web

    We should rename thread the ‘miserable git’ thread -  So much negativity & misery in here I’m surprised people even make it out of bed. updated 06z JMA joins the euro party to 84

    Find 1 post that I said it would be a convective Easterly - The problem with you ( & many others ) is you read one thing but assume another. The forecast was a blend of the GEM / ECM 

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    Posted
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
    2 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

    ECM looking rather a close match to GEM:

    782A198C-11CF-4C56-BC9C-F844DC57D35B.thumb.png.40d9f7dc1deef282cff89b8f9e5625ff.pngDC82285F-8F61-4EFE-9013-7FA8EC9985B3.thumb.png.6cc644c53b40eba3b2333fd99cf0673c.png

    Better I’d say, further north and GEM starts collapsing - not sure ECM will. Less snow showers in SW but sort term pain for long term gain etc 

    Edited by Ali1977
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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

    ECM wants to play with something new Azores ridge doing a link up reinforcing the block dry but very cold. 

    F33442DD-5197-4CD0-9C93-3C6888B1BB16.thumb.png.05ffe549ab2ad7ce342bad06574070c7.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Huddersfield, West Yorkshire (170m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Huddersfield, West Yorkshire (170m ASL)
    2 hours ago, snowray said:

    Wow. Lots of snow on the GEM beast from the east, yes please!:yahoo:

    gem-2-192.png

    gem-2-198.png

    gem-2-204.png

    gem-2-210.png

    gem-2-216.png

    Looks like a good old Humber streamer!

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
    6 minutes ago, shaky said:

    You couldnt draw more identical charts if you wanted to!!ecm with the stronger high and looks better to undercut further west!!

    It's just how we see things. For me at 144 ecm is lower than ukmo and although the ecm goes on to be very good IF it was lower again on the next run this would allow more energy to go over the top or at least more difficult to undercut.and therefore the later frames would look very different. This is why I prefer the ukmo as I see less risk. Been burnt to many times and I would prefer the less risky option. :D

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
    4 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

    Better I’d say, further north and GEM starts collapsing - not sure ECM will

    Worse if snow is what you are after. But perhaps better for longevity. 

    That is one formidable block on EC count it won’t be going anywhere in a hurry!!

    Edited by Daniel*
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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

    Can’t be unhappy with that can you? Very very cold final few frames from EC.

    BF3DAE13-7D5B-4C44-B3B2-90BE39DC09E8.thumb.png.da95d6e14baa2224b01aff07ea24584e.png47D912D7-D68E-4F50-9BD1-646496D42E83.thumb.png.6b09bb50bfa9edb451d54394e35dcc72.png

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    Posted
  • Location: .
  • Location: .

    The ECM continues the cold-fest. It feels like a long time since we've seen charts like this:

    5a4c7e544cf9a_ScreenShot2018-01-03at06_53_06.thumb.png.7d275d2b63b01001c304841576147c38.png

    However, the transition from the Scandi slipping high to the retrograding Shetland high looks a bit nail biting:

    5a4c7e880d2f4_ScreenShot2018-01-03at06_53_28.thumb.png.c8ef8ccaa3d16ccfa249b1b397df3a83.png

    5a4c7e96656c2_ScreenShot2018-01-03at06_53_39.thumb.png.41d8b95f26ef0ebde660395f8a377b87.png

    Exciting times though! :cold:

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    Posted
  • Location: Broadmayne a few miles north of Weymouth in Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Broadmayne a few miles north of Weymouth in Dorset

    Just to add a touch of realism here. 

    The synoptics look great but still a fur coat and no knickers job for me.

    The really cold uppers don,t arrive till 192 which is a lifetime in weather forecasting.

    One positive point is better block orientation at 240 than the 12z

    Edited by Broadmayne blizzard
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    Posted
  • Location: .
  • Location: .
    8 minutes ago, shaky said:

    What a morning!!looking forward to the 06gfs now!!!gem ukmo and ecm not backing down at all!!

    I'm not sure UKMO can be counted 'in' can it? It only goes to T144 and it's the 48 hours past that which are critical. Will the high move north as per GEM & ECM to unlock a vicious easterly or slide into Poland as per GFS?

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    Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20

    ECM - broadscale very similar to previous runs.  No point fussing over the minor shifts in the orientation of the high or uppers at this stage.  The block isn’t going anywhere.

    Edited by mulzy
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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
    2 minutes ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

    Just to add a touch of realism here. 

    The synoptics look great but still a fur coat and no knickers job for me.

    The really cold uppers don,t arrive till 192 which is a lifetime in weather forecasting.

    It takes very little to get that much colder air in earlier a slight adjustment makes a huge difference it’s very much unresolved the surface will be cold I’m fairly certain this will be the coldest spell of the winter (so far). 

    It’s best we do not see run after run of perfection you can’t expect that then we’d get overly complacent. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)

    After looking at the comments this morning I thought we were locked into bitter cold by Saturday. Instead I see the cold uppers being pushed further and further out now arriving middle of next week. Are we not chasing cold in la la land aka FI

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    Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.

    Well then! This is more like it, and a theme shown several runs on the trot. The warm air over Europe well and truly gone, colder air stabbing westward. A good solid block in the right location. Lovely to look at but keeping my enthusiasm 'on ice' until the output gets much closer to t+0hrs! 

    ECH0-192.gif

    ECH1-192.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level

    Well its GEM/UKMO/ ECM against GFS-

    My mind was made up before EC came out and the EC just confirms it..!!

    Seems its GFS against the world now, surely GFS is wrong here- 

    I cant wait up for the meto update as i have worked all night but surely to Goodness Exter have to change their stance today?

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    Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex

    Well if the GFS and ALL it's ensemble suite is wrong it's reputation is going to take a very big hit in here. The ensembles are pretty much unanimous.. odd.

    IMG_8756.JPG

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    Posted
  • Location: Salzburger Sportwelt Lungau/ Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Salzburger Sportwelt Lungau/ Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
    3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

    Well its GEM/UKMO/ ECM against GFS-

    My mind was made up before EC came out and the EC just confirms it..!!

    Seems its GFS against the world now, surely GFS is wrong here- 

    I cant wait up for the meto update as i have worked all night but surely to Goodness Exter have to change their stance today?

    GFS would seem like that. It has support of some sorts with the US Navy model outputs. Clearly post 144t  these two models seem to be struggling to evolve the increasing cold  block over NW Europe this weekend. Endless progressive runs now  to advance some form of trough distruption towards UK from a more zonal type but the prognosis does not look right me in the period 144-210t.  GFS certainly grinding this one out going down screaming and shouting . If it wins out will be like goal of the decade !

    C

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    Posted
  • Location: Chisinau, Moldova.
  • Location: Chisinau, Moldova.

    ECM Control similar to Op. Quite a beautiful long haul easterly actually. 

    Mean seems to have shifted a bit from the 12z yesterday. Someone will likely confirm later, but guessing the atlantic cluster is noticeably smaller.

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    Posted
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
    9 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

    Well if the GFS and ALL it's ensemble suite is wrong it's reputation is going to take a very big hit in here. The ensembles are pretty much unanimous.. odd.

    IMG_8756.JPG

    This is still a worry for me....GFS is a good model and shouldn’t be dismissed 

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    49 minutes ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

    Just to add a touch of realism here. 

    The synoptics look great but still a fur coat and no knickers job for me.

    The really cold uppers don,t arrive till 192 which is a lifetime in weather forecasting.

    One positive point is better block orientation at 240 than the 12z

    EC is frigid - 850s dont look inspiring 120-168 but it will be bitterly cold with the high parked to the north of scotland..

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    Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
    11 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

    Well if the GFS and ALL it's ensemble suite is wrong it's reputation 

    IMG_8756.JPG

    GFS doesn' have a reputation.  We only use it because it runs four times a day and is free.

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