Jump to content
Cold?
Local
Radar
Snow?

Model output discussion - into 2018


Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level

    Assuming this does come off as per GEM one really has to take the hat off to this model- it spotted the undercut well before UKMO!!

    Of course, crewe could be right and GFS calls it correctly - 

    Fingers crossed for a steady as she goes EC- think the GEM/UKMO are our insurance policy this morning- think this thread will be very busy come 6am onwards...

     

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Spotted a post you think may be an issue? Please help the team by reporting it.
    • Replies 5.2k
    • Created
    • Last Reply

    Top Posters In This Topic

    Top Posters In This Topic

    Popular Posts

    An ode to the model output thread... "In days of old, when Thatcher was bold and Kettley was a weatherman, Tales are told of winters cold, and snow lay everywhere, man.   The World Wide Web

    We should rename thread the ‘miserable git’ thread -  So much negativity & misery in here I’m surprised people even make it out of bed. updated 06z JMA joins the euro party to 84

    Find 1 post that I said it would be a convective Easterly - The problem with you ( & many others ) is you read one thing but assume another. The forecast was a blend of the GEM / ECM 

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
    4 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

    I was surprised to see such consistency from the GEM, it may be right or wrong but a model with consistency is good if you ask me and should be taken seriously. I think we are now looking at atleast 6-7 days of cold air, with frosts and some snow showers around.  Probably the best cold spell for 4 years so that’s not to bad after 2 good snow events for some in Dec.  Could be some pretty severe frosts in places, especially if snow cover although I’m not sure there will be too much of that away from east coasts maybe.

    if this next ECM has another great run I’ll be a tad surprised however, but I’m keeping fingers crossed. GFS was a slight shift for the better too.

    Indeed. I take my hat off to GEM I forgot who said it but apparently it was the first model to pick up on the easterly this is now a dead cert. I can not fault it’s consistency and with UKMO this morning - very encouraged. IMO the chance of a decent cold spell has increased this morning with a greater length to it. Watch ECM 00z decide to play Scrooge these elusive easterlies are the most foreboding synoptics! This is a very good time of year for it. 

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

    GEM appears to be too progressive to me in the block collapsing. It does not look right to me. 

    61C7E8AE-8D54-4D72-9ED8-768684EDEBFC.thumb.png.30ce2a4efac546346f2239f3209a337a.png 2 days later > C23B07E1-2CA6-45AF-A701-81FA816DB498.thumb.png.7b4749c989dfb877507e711f1dd3802a.png

     

    Edited by Daniel*
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
    2 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

    GEM appears to be too progressive to me in the block collapsing. It does not look right to me. 

    61C7E8AE-8D54-4D72-9ED8-768684EDEBFC.thumb.png.30ce2a4efac546346f2239f3209a337a.png 2 days later > C23B07E1-2CA6-45AF-A701-81FA816DB498.thumb.png.7b4749c989dfb877507e711f1dd3802a.png

     

    It goes look strange but look at that blast of WAA heading up from the Atlantic, could reinstate some form of Scandy high , and should keep that low pressure in the MED.

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
    18 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

    Assuming this does come off as per GEM one really has to take the hat off to this model- it spotted the undercut well before UKMO!!

    Of course, crewe could be right and GFS calls it correctly - 

    Fingers crossed for a steady as she goes EC- think the GEM/UKMO are our insurance policy this morning- think this thread will be very busy come 6am onwards...

     

    I'm not saying the GFS is going to be correct though...I'm merely stating we need to proceed with caution as, whilst the GFS is showing this evolution, it remains a possibility.

    • Like 4
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
    17 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

    It goes look strange but look at that blast of WAA heading up from the Atlantic, could reinstate some form of Scandy high , and should keep that low pressure in the MED.

    I agree still continuing in an interesting vein. GFS is making small steps without it make adjustments within T90 it does not inspire much faith in the model - whereas GEM for instance isn’t messing about. 

    T99 

    18z 512AF806-15BE-4446-9775-797B455A5E6B.thumb.png.cb4f9750834d7304440edc94017afe28.png 00z 2A6EF802-F951-4985-B255-54FF1B031DA9.thumb.png.ab6f7342d1742aa8d4368ba518d4cf79.png

    Quite an apparent difference instead of a slack ‘crappy’ easterly on the 18z all down to it struggling with ridge placement turns into a brisk decent fetched easterly/ENE on 00z for the SE for a time..

    Edited by Daniel*
    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
    27 minutes ago, West is Best said:

    Ever since John Ketley forecast an imminent beast from the east which never happened, no-one on here should repeat those words ;) 

    I’m not anticipating a beasterly sub widespread -12C uppers, it will be very cold for a yet undecided length not exceptionally cold but more than cold enough to satisfy coldies I would hope. And even colder air is possible further ahead, if everything falls into place. However let’s get to phase one first, as a southerner this is the first time I’ve felt excited I never want to see a PM cold spell again. :D

    A beast is more than welcome. :diablo:;)

    Edited by Daniel*
    • Like 4
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    18 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

    I'm not saying the GFS is going to be correct though...I'm merely stating we need to proceed with caution as, whilst the GFS is showing this evolution, it remains a possibility.

    no worries mate -  :)

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL

    With talking about the latest METO update I’d think even without fully backing latest ECM and GEM models there is some support within their suite - shame we can’t find out the amount. With that in mind another ECM good run must be in the realms of reality, however any shift towards the GFS is pretty notable at this range.  Eyes down, this is a biggy.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level

    Last blinking hour in work before hometime and i can't watch EC come out-

    I'm confident it will show similar to GEM/UKMO tho..

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
    2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

    Last blinking hour in work before hometime and i can't watch EC come out-

    I'm confident it will show similar to GEM/UKMO tho..

    Famous last words... here we are at T48.

    B0E1F165-FFE3-4B9F-B0A3-AF87C1B6A01E.thumb.gif.75ffbd9ea8c821bcb8a798dc97aacede.gif

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth

    T96 that will feel bitter. 

    IMG_0285.PNG

    IMG_0286.PNG

    Edited by That ECM
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL

    Well here’s the latest 144 and to me this looks even better, stronger high and looks more undercutty- we shall see next frame 

    only concern is heights not as low in Spain and the Easterly is more of a SE’ly, so more chance of collapsing possibly. Atlantic profile of PV looks quite different .

    ED4C6D55-B773-48D0-9F29-1B4BACAD5EEF.png

    D0911C46-5175-4705-AEEC-026FF282E709.png

    Edited by Ali1977
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales

    Blimey you can cut the tension with a knife!!!

    Ecm fine at 144, high cut off and heading north...

     

     

    ECMOPEU00_144_1-2.png

    Edited by KTtom
    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
    3 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

    Well here’s the latest 144 and to me this looks even better, stronger high and looks more undercutty- we shall see next frame 

    only concern is heights not as low in Spain and the Easterly is more of a SE’ly, so more chance of collapsing possibly!! 

    ED4C6D55-B773-48D0-9F29-1B4BACAD5EEF.png

    D0911C46-5175-4705-AEEC-026FF282E709.png

    Ecm is ok but I would prefer ukmo.  Further north on ukmo

    IMG_0289.PNG

    IMG_0290.PNG

    Edited by That ECM
    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
    1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

    Well here’s the latest 144 and to me this looks even better, stronger high and looks more undercutty- we shall see next frame 

    only concern is heights not as low in Spain and the Easterly is more of a SE’ly, so more chance of collapsing possibly. Atlantic profile of PV looks quite different .

    ED4C6D55-B773-48D0-9F29-1B4BACAD5EEF.png

    D0911C46-5175-4705-AEEC-026FF282E709.png

    I prefer 00z the lower heights in Iberia are important but you are right it does look more undercutty possibly short term pain with the less cold uppers. A more negative tilt rather than the slight positive tilt on 12z to Atlantic express due to stronger block.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL

    168 and it’s still all systems go ?? strong Scandy high, next frame could be awesome

    78B9A68E-1A18-480C-9E03-18BC9E7CEB7E.png

    Edited by Ali1977
    • Thanks 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
    4 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

    168 and it’s still all systems go ?? strong Scandy high, next frame could be awesome

    78B9A68E-1A18-480C-9E03-18BC9E7CEB7E.png

    Atlantic has died and come to a standstill to my eyes, just need to tap into colder air from Russia now ?

    Edited by Ali1977
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
    9 minutes ago, That ECM said:

    Ecm is ok but I would prefer ukmo.  Further north on ukmo

    IMG_0289.PNG

    IMG_0290.PNG

    You couldnt draw more identical charts if you wanted to!!ecm with the stronger high and looks better to undercut further west!!

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire

    broader pattern solid on EC just orientation of the high not perfect on the 00z (at 168) with regards to 850s, still would be bitter at the surface, would it be cold enough for any undercut to deliver some frontal snowfall? Not sure.

    Though small adjustments would drag in the much much colder air.

    IMG_3202.thumb.PNG.f27d69c06ab2779b72dc621241d35b13.PNG

     

    Edit

    at 192 orientation adjusts to a much more favourable position :)

    IMG_3203.thumb.PNG.c485bb3379bc2fc23dc7375cacf6ddcc.PNG

    Edited by chris55
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Guest
    This topic is now closed to further replies.
    • Cold waves hitting Europe continue to threaten growers, is there a link to climate change?

      Much of Europe, not just the UK, has experienced unseasonably cold weather since the Easter Weekend. A plunge of cold arctic air brought by northerly winds early last week brought several nights of frost and even snow across large swathes of Europe, followed by another wave of cold arctic air spreads across much of Europe this week. The frosts causing damage to new growth in vineyards and orchardsa0spurred on by a late March heatwave, the vineyards of France werea0particularly badly affected.

      Nick F
      Nick F
      Latest weather updates from Netweather 4

      High pressure rules, but still chilly out the sun & watch out for a few showers

      High pressure in charge for the rest of the week but the airmass will be chilly, so feeling nippy out of the sun. Not entirely dry either, with scattered showers around the next few days, especially in the west. Read the full update here

      Netweather forecasts
      Netweather forecasts
      Latest weather updates from Netweather

      You'll need your coat because it's still cold out of the sun

      More April snow for Monday morning with a widespread frost. If you have outdoor plans this week, the chill in the air remains especially once the sun goes down. Read the full update here

      Netweather forecasts
      Netweather forecasts
      Latest weather updates from Netweather
    • Recently Browsing   0 members

      No registered users viewing this page.

    ×
    ×
    • Create New...