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Model output discussion - into 2018


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Posted
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl

    Yes GEM rock solid.

    gem-1-186.png

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    An ode to the model output thread... "In days of old, when Thatcher was bold and Kettley was a weatherman, Tales are told of winters cold, and snow lay everywhere, man.   The World Wide Web

    We should rename thread the ‘miserable git’ thread -  So much negativity & misery in here I’m surprised people even make it out of bed. updated 06z JMA joins the euro party to 84

    Find 1 post that I said it would be a convective Easterly - The problem with you ( & many others ) is you read one thing but assume another. The forecast was a blend of the GEM / ECM 

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT

    UKMO / GEM identical @120 as well with that triangular High-

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
    5 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

    GEM is even better this morning than it was last night

    gem-0-180.png?00

    That is a real beaut, especially for the SE if it came off.

    GFS 00z marginally better than 18z but is it a trend?

    Edited by Mucka
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    Posted
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl

    Wow. Lots of snow on the GEM beast from the east, yes please!:yahoo:

    gem-2-192.png

    gem-2-198.png

    gem-2-204.png

    gem-2-210.png

    gem-2-216.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
    3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

    UKMOs on the bus @96 @ 120 ! ( just a smidge warmer through 120 ) but the flows flat so no warmer @144

     

    Pretty good consistency with yesterday's 00z too. fingers crossed.

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    Posted
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl

    Never seen the GEM show -12c uppers over the SE, usually it underestimates the cold by a few degrees.

    gem-1-228.png

    gem-0-240.png

    gem-2-240.png

    Edited by snowray
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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level

    UKMO 

    BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOM

    :cold::yahoo:

     

    GFS, well, just go and take a bath (or better still just throw yourself off a cliff)...

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    Posted
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs

    UKMO says yes at 144. 

    Phew.

    E09603FC-47FD-4E0B-A38E-A77F847AF23D.thumb.gif.de0e4c4dbcbb0a31cfaca5ee6dddce13.gif

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

    UKMO at 144 is a peach. Would love to see days 7+

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level

    Beginning to look like the nay sayers / manic depressives are going to be very very wrong lol.

    Going to be some very happy campers this morning!!!

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    Posted
  • Location: near dalmellington E ayrshire 302m asl
  • Weather Preferences: mediterranean summer
  • Location: near dalmellington E ayrshire 302m asl

    the GFS is gradualy getting there but at the rate it's going it will be a week late the UKMO and GEM look identical at 144h this mornings ECM will finally seal it either way

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    Just now, CreweCold said:

    UKMO at 144 is a peach. Would love to see days 7+

    LOL, were you not in the GFS camp last night???

    cmon now crewe dont be shy!!

    :D

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    Posted
  • Location: West Ipswich, Suffolk
  • Location: West Ipswich, Suffolk

    GFS scandi is all over the place, its like a jelly on a plate, i swear it just never learns the strengths of a good block till last minute.

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    1 minute ago, igloo said:

    the GFS is gradualy getting there but at the rate it's going it will be a week late the UKMO and GEM look identical at 144h this mornings ECM will finally seal it either way

    Its trash, does anyone care what it says?

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    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
    2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

    LOL, were you not in the GFS camp last night???

    cmon now crewe dont be shy!!

    :D

    The GFS could still be proven correct. 

    Golden rule where easterlys are concerned- never count your chickens until we're within 72 hrs.

    Years of model viewing has made me learn the hard way!

    Edited by CreweCold
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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    Just now, CreweCold said:

    The GFS could still be proven correct. 

    Golden rule where easterlys are concerned- never count your chickens until we're within 72 hrs.

    ROFL...

    Believe me, its wrong...its garbage.

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    Posted
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
    Just now, CreweCold said:

    The GFS could still be proven correct. 

    Golden rule where easterlys are concerned- never count your chickens until we're within 72 hrs.

    Yes let’s Semi dismiss the GFS - but keep an eye on it expecting it to inch round each run

    its moving per prediction 12z > 18z > 00z In pidgeon steps....

    All we need is a decent ECM

    At least the cold has now hit T72....

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    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
    3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

    Yes let’s Semi dismiss the GFS - but keep an eye on it expecting it to inch round each run

    its moving per prediction 12z > 18z > 00z In pidgeon steps....

    All we need is a decent ECM

    At least the cold has now hit T72....

    Fair post Steve.

    I appreciate that you understand that easterlys are finely balanced beasts. The UKMO and GEM runs are extremely encouraging but we still cannot dismiss the GFS idea because the model may simply have a better handle on the split jet flow on this occasion. We have been stung many times over.

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    Posted
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT

    & its a full house with Aperge stunning out to 120 as well.....

     

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    Posted
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
    Just now, CreweCold said:

    Fair post Steve.

    I appreciate that you understand that easterlys are finely balanced beasts. The UKMO and GEM runs are extremely encouraging but we still cannot dismiss the GFS idea because the model may simply have a better handle on the split jet flow on this occasion. We have been stung many times over.

    Yep agree - I will run some commentary on it 00z into 06z

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    20 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

    Yep agree - I will run some commentary on it 00z into 06z

    I don't.

    Its an absolutely garbage model- trash can.

    Ive just forced myself to watch the 00z GFS and its laughable- it hasn't got a clue- there should be Benny Hill music playing in the background..

    Edited by northwestsnow
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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
    36 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

    Beginning to look like the nay sayers / manic depressives are going to be very very wrong lol.

    Going to be some very happy campers this morning!!!

    Hm your demeanour flips as much as my cat. :D 

    My profile pic isn’t of my cat though - very good start to the day from what I can see posted above. Happy days.

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    Posted
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT

    GFS mean @180 now showing a larger package of energy moving SE with around 75% showing the undercut - 

    Again steady progression is the order of the day 1 step nearer to a closed low to the SW

    00z V 18z mean -

    0D41F4F0-EE41-49A7-938E-A2D989BCE200.thumb.png.e41d156450f8502fae2f3feb938a4899.png1CCBDE73-2DE2-44AF-A0E5-A51A03C573F8.thumb.png.a4eb5431408c86e27da98e4d53f16059.png 

    Edited by Steve Murr
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    Posted
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL

    I was surprised to see such consistency from the GEM, it may be right or wrong but a model with consistency is good if you ask me and should be taken seriously. I think we are now looking at atleast 6-7 days of cold air, with frosts and some snow showers around.  Probably the best cold spell for 4 years so that’s not to bad after 2 good snow events for some in Dec.  Could be some pretty severe frosts in places, especially if snow cover although I’m not sure there will be too much of that away from east coasts maybe.

    if this next ECM has another great run I’ll be a tad surprised however, but I’m keeping fingers crossed. GFS was a slight shift for the better too.

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