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Model output discussion - into 2018


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So watch to look for tomorrow

at 96 -120 we are looking for a more triangular high with the emphasis of lots of CAA down the eastern flank - this will stop the high slipping east

The angle of the flow needs to be ENE

like the GEM / ECM

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An ode to the model output thread... "In days of old, when Thatcher was bold and Kettley was a weatherman, Tales are told of winters cold, and snow lay everywhere, man.   The World Wide Web

We should rename thread the ‘miserable git’ thread -  So much negativity & misery in here I’m surprised people even make it out of bed. updated 06z JMA joins the euro party to 84

Find 1 post that I said it would be a convective Easterly - The problem with you ( & many others ) is you read one thing but assume another. The forecast was a blend of the GEM / ECM 

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Notice the GFS mean has the core of the low heights in Spain where a GEM / ECM eastern Spain / SW france

that is the difference between the 5/10 degrees of flow we need from Easterly with a hint of SE ( GFS ) to Easterly with a hint of NE ( ECM/GEM )

post that. Undercut...

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whilst we are on the subject of model bashing, let's not bother with ops post day 7/8 - just a waste of time taking them seriously at that range. I think the issue here is gfs is likely wrong in what should be a timescale where it shouldn't be - how wrong remains to be seen. The next few runs should reveal the answer. 

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steve i hope you dont get egg on yoir face with the ecm n gem.

you seem very confudent and i hope your right.

i love your posts so much!! will the NEaasterly at weeknd you think bring in snow showers??

just seen so many times in past great charts to just suddenly disapear!!

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I dònt think the 12z gfs did a terrible job earlier - it's just post day 8 when they lose resolution at the point where we have another pulse on the jet heading east ........  never going to end well! 

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Actually by 144 the mean still has us in a continental flow where as the Op hasn’t, so still room for improvement with that and maybe Even though I said ECM will backtrack , it might have a better grasp than expected.  Also a point to note is that this run has more ENS showing an ECM type solution by 180, I’d say around 7/8

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& the last one showing the GFs swing

 

mean 192 18z V 204 12z

note the deep cut of energy going SE on the 18z ( lower heights ) & the shape of the Azores high diving SE

also note the wave height of the Scandi high on the 18z - higher amplitude 

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Shaky 168-180

Edited by Steve Murr
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5a4c14a7d55be_ScreenShot2018-01-02at23_24_04.thumb.png.9eb0a803e97751eb24e67cb3ed7cdf1c.png

On a positive note for the GFS (unless boring predictable model operational GFS outputs are your thing :D), it has the makings of the start of a SSW right at the end of the run. FI stuff granted but one to keep an eye on for future runs. Another well into he future starting input for the models to deal with. I would have posted this in the Strat thread but tbh its overwhelmingly technical in there & I get the fear when I start typing. (monkey with hands over eyes emoji)

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Will the drama ever end , what is it with GFS 18hrs runs.

They're like the z list celebrity clamouring for attention who hasn't done much apart from some stint on one of those awful reality programmes.

So now because of the psycho drama of the GFS coldies will go to bed not knowing whether to order an extra duvet or put the Geraniums out in the garden!

Its always the same story, I can't remember a time when this type of set up hasn't led to a model divergence and the GFS often being at the centre of raising the stress levels of coldies.

Thankfully the UKMO which has often been the harbinger of doom hasn't left the party early so I'd still favour something like the ECM GEM solutions.

Hopefully we can get some agreement in the morning! :cold-emoji:

 

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1 minute ago, Man With Beard said:

T216 clusters - a dead heat between the classic Scandi High and the Atlantic pushing it back

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018010212_216.

Do not be surprised at all if the ECM op looks more like cluster 2 in the morning. It's overdue a trip into the more Atlantic affected cluster!

If it does indeed take a step to the dark side it's all over for me no turning back I'm afraid.

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A good animation from Ryan M it shows just how important developments are across the pond to our ridge & reconfiguring the pattern to have +ve heights pushed N/NE of UK. The brutal cold energising cyclone off eastern seaboard meeting mild ocean currents of Gulf Stream, which looks to give blizzards for east Canada and parts of NE Seaboard. This blizzard works in our favour downstream. If east CONUS was mild we may not have even got there..

 

Edited by Daniel*
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24 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

A good animation from Ryan M it shows just how important developments are across the pond to our ridge & reconfiguring the pattern to have +ve heights pushed N/NE of UK. The brutal cold energising cyclone off eastern seaboard meeting mild ocean currents of Gulf Stream, which looks to give blizzards for east Canada and parts of NE Seaboard. This blizzard works in our favour downstream. If east CONUS was mild we may not have even got there..

 

How does this affect us exactly?

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3 hours ago, Steve Murr said:

Notice the GFS mean has the core of the low heights in Spain where a GEM / ECM eastern Spain / SW france

that is the difference between the 5/10 degrees of flow we need from Easterly with a hint of SE ( GFS ) to Easterly with a hint of NE ( ECM/GEM )

post that. Undercut...

Doesn't that just tell us how finely balanced it is?

I am staying firmly on the fence with this one but hoping you are right while wishing for a cold and snowy spell.

At least GFS ensembles show more promise than the Op and 2m temps of the Op are very much on the mild side of the suite so perhaps we can expect a much better 00z - we usually get some form of agreement on an Easterly just before it all goes TU.:whistling:

Edited by Mucka
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Just now, snowray said:

Thought you might be around Steve.:clapping::clapping::clapping:

;)

-9c 850 down to the wash @96-

light Kent streamer @ 108

can we undercut now !!!

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