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Model output discussion - into 2018


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Posted
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl

    That Atlantic low is even deeper on the 18z, 935mb.:doh: Think I will wait for the 00z runs.

    gfs-0-168.png

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    An ode to the model output thread... "In days of old, when Thatcher was bold and Kettley was a weatherman, Tales are told of winters cold, and snow lay everywhere, man.   The World Wide Web

    We should rename thread the ‘miserable git’ thread -  So much negativity & misery in here I’m surprised people even make it out of bed. updated 06z JMA joins the euro party to 84

    Find 1 post that I said it would be a convective Easterly - The problem with you ( & many others ) is you read one thing but assume another. The forecast was a blend of the GEM / ECM 

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    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
    2 minutes ago, ShortWaveHell said:

    You can’t really get rinsed for commenting on what a model is showing ! You/GFS may well be right ! Not Iike you’re making up what you see ! It’s there for all and the GFS ain’t moving (yet) or maybe ever 

    I'd be pleased if the GFS has this all wrong, I'll tell you that.

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

    TBH It will be more steady, a longer period of anti-cyclonic weather than predicted by the GFS with the Atlantic eventually breaking through but now stonking Easterly - ECM backtrack will be steady over the next few runs.

    Can i have the lotterynumbers while your at it..

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    Posted
  • Location: Locksbottom,kent 92m asl(310ft)
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers but not too hot and colder winters with frost and snow
  • Location: Locksbottom,kent 92m asl(310ft)

    Will the ECM backtrack tomorrow morning?,will the GFS next run move to the ECM? We have been here a few times over the last 5 years!!Nothing is ever smooth in getting good cold spell developing in the UK!!-Bit like Spurs not making the game safe at Swansea tonight and getting 89th 2nd goal to finally seal the win.I will settle for GFS and UKMO moving to ECM tomorrow morning please :good:COYS(Come on you Snow/Spurs!!)

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    Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

    h850t850eu.png ecmt850.096.png

    Comparing GFS and ECM at just four days range and we still see some huge discrepancies. So while GFS has sped up the shortwave it still needs to add quite a bit more pace to it in order for the ridge to focus to the SW of it instead of SE as of noon Saturday, which seems to be critical for the jet diving sharply south on the eastern flank with the cold air travelling nicely around to the UK.

    You can also see here that GFS is being a tw!t with that residual shallow LP over S'rn UK keeping the cold air from sweeping all the way south. The model really needs to go sit in the corner and think about its behaviour :laugh:.

    I do think that with GFS, any sign of a movement toward the more desirable output is good, as it doesn't tend to lurch all the way across in one go. From here we usually tend to see either the adjustments continuing until we at last see GFS side with the other models, or we get that sneaky old scenario of 'we seemed to be heading for agreement, but then model X went off on a whole new adventure...'.

     

    p.s. GFS 18z also finding more amplification upstream than preceding runs. More good trends, just not strongly enough to produce much at this time!

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    Posted
  • Location: Christchurch, NZ
  • Weather Preferences: Many
  • Location: Christchurch, NZ

    GFS still sending a lot of energy north and tonight is pushing the high east very easily. It seems a little too eager to do both of those, but the Atlantic low does look very vigorous so it may be too much for the block.

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    Posted
  • Location: Dublin, Ireland
  • Location: Dublin, Ireland
    24 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    TBH It will be more steady, a longer period of anti-cyclonic weather than predicted by the GFS with the Atlantic eventually breaking through but now stonking Easterly - ECM backtrack will be steady over the next few runs.

    You predicted a stonking GFS run with colder uppers only 10 mins ago and that didn't happen.. Keep the predictions coming!

    Personally I think we will find ourselves with a halfway house, not quite what GFS is showing but nothing as nice as ECM

    Edited by Fear Sneachta Bàn
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    Posted
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl

    Latest FAX charts nothing like the GFS.:D

    fax96s.gif

    fax120s.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT

    GFS 192 stage 1 of backtrack.

    cant get Atlantic through East so next option is upwards.

    Final GFS option is underneath.

    06804188-311C-4F36-9AB3-F2ABC729C7F0.thumb.png.d64609279ac5116beed29ef447288e4a.png

    Note the Scandi High still in place now.

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: Bitter Cold in winter and Extreme heat in summer
  • Location: Leeds

    I'm not confident in the ECM. I think the GFS has nailed this. I hope I'm wrong but it's just the way it goes these days!!!!!!!!!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL

    What usually happens is a general blend occurs with the models converging on a middle ground. 

    The GFS does have a habit of picking out the shortwave spoilers ahead of the other models. The ECM has shown us Easterlies in winters gone by (such as last year) and they have simply not happened.

    I expect there to be too much energy in the northern arm of the jet this time around. The high will likely sink to form a sceuro ridge with low pressure going over the top and heights not low enough in the med to prop it up.

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    1 minute ago, Fear Sneachta Bàn said:

    You predicted a stonking GFS run with colder uppers only 10 mins ago and that didn't happen.. Keep the predictions coming!

    Personally I think we will find ourselves with a halfway house, not quite what GFS is showing but nothing as nice as ECM

    Isnt that practically what I just said.

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    Posted
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
    2 minutes ago, Fear Sneachta Bàn said:

    You predicted a stonking GFS run with colder uppers only 10 mins ago and that didn't happen.. Keep the predictions coming!

    Personally I think we will find ourselves with a halfway house, not quite what GFS is showing but nothing as nice as ECM

    Yes this is what usually happens of course.:sorry:

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    Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea

    gfs-0-180.png?18

    Hurricane Force winds inbound for Iceland. Clearly not overdoing the Atlantic.

    gfs-0-192.png?12

    What a Christmas it could have been! 

    GFS King of the Greenland shortwave. ECM King of Verification stats

    GFS gfs-2013010412-0-96.png?12    ECMECM1-96.GIF?12

    What happened (notice higher heights north aswell). gfs-2013010812-0-6.png?12

    They were both wrong! 

    UKMO the true King Modele UKMO - Carte prévisions  Archives

     

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
    17 minutes ago, johnholmes said:
      4 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

    To my untrained eye,it looks like -ve heights disrupting SE into Europe,it does look like an undercut to me.

    610day_03.thumb.gif.b38f342ce17007a4ee2f2675f60eee7b.gif

    if i am wrong then i stand corrected:cc_confused:

    yes that right

    sorry but that is not right, as posted above it is a mean chart and having studied these charts for almost 10 years daily I would not think of suggesting that.

    Take a look, from another angle, at how the 12z GFS deals with what you suggest would be an undercut, it does not, IF the run turns out to be near the mark, the surface feature is turned roughly north. It may well be wrong in which case back to the drawing board. It MIGHT happen but it is too far to suggest it will in my view.

    Also remember the green lines are contour lines at 500 mb.

     

    But surely that is a good mean 6-10 days out

    just pondering,what model do NOAA use for this anomoly chart?

    Steve murr said that it is modified to the ecm and the gfs not in the mix but you ask me to take a look at the 12z gfs for another angle!

    the gfs over the last few runs has backtracked with the atlantic barreling in past the BI only for it to disrupt against the block to our NE in that timeframe

    it still doesn't show an undercut but it is getting there.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT

    204 V 210 You will note more of a scandi block morphing back west- 

    only another 34 runs of moving to go

    18z first

    453BE482-EA43-4985-AB9A-404481912322.thumb.png.a875c8168bb0f9dfca9b3c865c5ae9e9.png8B433B17-757F-4416-B391-3C429890EC78.thumb.png.3ecee83ad26530da75c5acdf123e714c.png

    Some energy underneath but minimal

    lets say 85/15 upwards / under

    next run becomes 82/18 then 79/21 

    in 10 runs time that will be 60/40 & the GFS will look totally different ( around 168 )

    Edited by Steve Murr
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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
    4 minutes ago, SN0WM4N said:

    Hear me out here.

    Maybe none of the models are displaying a true representation of what happens next week.

    Is that possible or does there have to be one right and this very moment. 

     

    You are spot on IMO.

    Any assumption that a particular model has this nailed is based on personal preference for a particular model. 

    I read Steve's post earlier and the bias within the models he describes within GFS is fair comment (though all models have had many upgrades over the last 13 years), but perhaps we are only remembering the GFS bias and not the ECM bias?

    Yes GFS is likely too progressive but how does that make ECM any more likely to be correct? It has its own biases.

    How often do we see a middle ground solution where one model shows a Winter wonderland and the other Westerlies?

    I think we all have short selective memories to a point and our own inherent bias toward wishing for cold and snow.

    That doesn't mean ECM won't be proved correct and Steve vindicated but it could just as easily go the other way as far as I can tell. 

    UKMO is probably the best guide at the moment as that sits somewhere in the middle.

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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
    9 minutes ago, Matthew Gill said:

    And Iceland gets blown away

    Noooo!!!

    i shop there

    iceland-supermarket1.jpg:rofl:

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    Posted
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
    Just now, Mucka said:

    You are spot on IMO.

    Any assumption that a particular model has this nailed is based on personal preference for a particular model. 

    I read Steve's post earlier and the bias within the models he describes within GFS is fair comment (though all models have had many upgrades over the last 13 years), but perhaps we are only remembering the GFS bias and not the ECM bias?

    Yes GFS is likely too progressive but how does that make ECM any more likely to be correct? It has its own biases.

    How often do we see a middle ground solution where one model shows a Winter wonderland and the other Westerlies?

    I think we all have short selective memories to a point and our own inherent bias toward wishing for cold and snow.

    That doesn't mean ECM won't be proved correct and Steve vindicated but it could just as easily go the other way as far as I can tell. 

    UKMO is probably the best guide at the moment as that sits somewhere in the middle.

    R.E.M. I said meeting point 70/30 poss-

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    9 minutes ago, snowray said:

    Latest FAX charts nothing like the GFS.:D

    fax96s.gif

    fax120s.gif

    Well maybe i'm reading them wrong but the 120 looks hideous..

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    Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
    1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

    Well maybe i'm reading them wrong but the 120 looks hideous..

    What were you saying about manic depressives lol

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