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Model output discussion - into 2018


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This GFS run could be a stonker with a better uppers Easterly in FI - it looks to me like more frigid air is going to go into the continent, its just a haunch but of course we might not get the undercut in and it could be a load of crap with zonality winning out but if the undercut is good then...............

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An ode to the model output thread... "In days of old, when Thatcher was bold and Kettley was a weatherman, Tales are told of winters cold, and snow lay everywhere, man.   The World Wide Web

We should rename thread the ‘miserable git’ thread -  So much negativity & misery in here I’m surprised people even make it out of bed. updated 06z JMA joins the euro party to 84

Find 1 post that I said it would be a convective Easterly - The problem with you ( & many others ) is you read one thing but assume another. The forecast was a blend of the GEM / ECM 

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1 hour ago, nick sussex said:

You’ll know a good easterly because it often produces for you there in Dublin with some lake effect snow off the Irish Sea.

 

As it did December 22nd 2010

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h500slp.png h500slp.png

A weak toward the shortwave to the N breaking away sooner. 

Now there can potentially be more of a cut S then S of cold air down the E then SE flanks of the ridge. Will be interesting to see whether GFS actually does that or not.

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3 minutes ago, Singularity said:

h500slp.png h500slp.png

A weak toward the shortwave to the N breaking away sooner. 

Now there can potentially be more of a cut S then S of cold air down the E then SE flanks of the ridge. Will be interesting to see whether GFS actually does that or not.

Squeeze is on..

Gfs will be dragged kicking and screaming..although the formation is evolving...

Edited by tight isobar
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3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

18z is woeful. No pub run move to the ECM tonight.

Looked like it was trying to with the seperation of the shortwave at 96 hours over iceland!!steve its gone towards the ecm at just 66 hours so i dont buy at the moment what its showing after that!!

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Well if ECM is right then it will be a massive coup but if wrong then I feel its reputation may never fully recover in here. I myself fear for the worst. This was originally to be a first bite of the cherry easterly and as we know when you need to take a second or third bite the likelihood of things not going to plan greatly increase. The gfs 18z looks to be going the opposite way to the ecm. We may not even get out of the starting gate with this easterly for in the more reliable time frame we are seeing height being eroded away with to much energy going over the top of the high.

Edited by comet
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Just now, TheBeastFromTheEAST said:

Good or bad ? For cold that Is? 

It’s just a poor run. It cannot carve anything SW - it wants everything to go SE

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Personally I'm not so sure that the GFS is going to be proven wrong this time. It has time and again had the best handle on the area around Greenland/Iceland and shortwave spoilers.

At 132 we have the Atlantic troughing positively tilted against the 'block'. Goodnight vienna on this run.

gfs-0-132.png?18

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h500slp.png h500slp.png

Not sure about no movement Steve; look how the eastern flank of the Atlantic trough is aligned closer to S-N with more of a ridge by Iceland thanks to the shortwave separating better.

It's far from gone the whole way but it's definitely made it closer to producing that sort of triangle-shaped high with the bump on the top that stops the N jet arm riding over the ridge in the 12z ECM and GEM runs.

h850t850eu.png

Still some way to go in the nearer-term though, it is true! Sometimes GFS is just disgusting with its northern jet arm bias (or is it that simple this time... hmm)

Edited by Singularity
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1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

Personally I'm not so sure that the GFS is going to be proven wrong this time. It has time and again had the best handle on the area around Greenland/Iceland and shortwave spoilers.

At 132 we have the Atlantic troughing positively tilted against the 'block'. Goodnight vienna on this run.

gfs-0-132.png?18

I agree with you although possibly unwise to say it on here!!!  the stick you'll get.

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1 minute ago, comet said:

Well if ECM is right then it will be a massive coup but if wrong then I feel its reputation may never fully recover in here. I myself fear for the worst. This was originally to be a first bite of the cherry easterly and as we know when you need to take a second or third bite the likelihood of things not going to plan greatly increase. The gfs 18z looks to be going the opposite way to the ecm. We may not even get out of the starting gate with this easterly for in the more reliable time frame we are seeing height being eroded away with to much energy going over the top of the high.

OT The Beeb didn't even mention the Atlantic on tonight's 21:55 so I wonder what they are looking at GFS hasn't started well but its not a disaster

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2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I agree with you although possibly unwise to say it on here!!!  the stick you'll get.

I've worked in retail for years mate...I'm used to stick off people!

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1 minute ago, Banbury said:

OT The Beeb didn't even mention the Atlantic on tonight's 21:55 so I wonder what they are looking at GFS hasn't started well but its not a disaster

They are playing the odds on next week being mainly anticyclonic - which is currently what I would do in their position! 

 

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Can someone explain which model is statically and historically more often correct during the winter months - I'm sure this has probably been discussed before but some clarification would be helpful to those that are less informed and like to follow this discussion - thank you 

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3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I agree with you although possibly unwise to say it on here!!!  the stick you'll get.

So do I

Time and time again we see the gfs handle the sw spoilers expertly.

I expect an epic backtrack tomorrow by the ECM

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Hear me out here.

Maybe none of the models are displaying a true representation of what happens next week.

Is that possible or does there have to be one right and this very moment. 

 

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14 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

So do I

Time and time again we see the gfs handle the sw spoilers expertly.

I expect an epic backtrack tomorrow by the ECM

TBH It will be more steady, a longer period of anti-cyclonic weather than predicted by the GFS with the Atlantic eventually breaking through but no stonking Easterly - ECM backtrack will be steady over the next few runs.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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