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Model output discussion - into 2018


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1 minute ago, DOdo said:

I wouldnt  say that is too bad, They are talking about the end of the run??

 

That’s day 7 make of that what you will... look at EC and it’s all systems go. MOGREPS says no. 

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An ode to the model output thread... "In days of old, when Thatcher was bold and Kettley was a weatherman, Tales are told of winters cold, and snow lay everywhere, man.   The World Wide Web

We should rename thread the ‘miserable git’ thread -  So much negativity & misery in here I’m surprised people even make it out of bed. updated 06z JMA joins the euro party to 84

Find 1 post that I said it would be a convective Easterly - The problem with you ( & many others ) is you read one thing but assume another. The forecast was a blend of the GEM / ECM 

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Easterlies in recent years have been like the prequels to Alien.

Overhyped and failed to deliver. The problem is the mere mention easterly then the stampedes to the sledge shop start and often they’ve just had. some snow grains drifting down and slate grey skies.

The key to a good easterly is deep upper cold, and sufficient instability to produce some good North Sea convection.

The actual cold at this stage won’t be modeled accurately so it’s a case of just seeing how things develop .

If you’re not going to have the convection it’s better to take the risk with a front trying to move in from the west or the pattern retrogresses to allow troughing to drop south over Scandi.

 

Edited by nick sussex
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26 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

The MOGREPS is a very very useful forecasting tool it seems. I hold it in high regard as, as you say, it very often calls the correct outcome.

I would half agree - because we don't get to see enough of it though, are we assuming that's what is behind the Met Office's huge improvement in the extended range, or is it just their senior forecasters ability to decipher when a model is right or wrong - I'm sure there was once when an Easterly was on the agenda a few years ago and all 3 major models ops showed the Atlantic much nearer threatening to break through and the late night FAX had the Easterly locked in with a weak front heading West.

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What’s noticeable about the extended ECM ensembles is that parts of Russia go from + 13 on 2mtr anomaly to -8 by the end of the run. East coast of America is pretty much the opposite. 

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2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Easterlies in recent years have been like the prequels to Alien.

Overhyped and failed to deliver. The problem is the mere mention easterly then the stampedes to the sledge shop start and often they’ve just had. some snow grains drifting down and slate grey skies.

The key to a good easterly is deep upper cold, and sufficient instability to produce some good North Sea convection.

The actual cold at this stage won’t be modeled accurately so it’s a case of just seeing how things develop .

 

 

Exactly

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ECM is a decent easterly. Maybe a 6.5 or 7 out of 10. If it verified I'd imagine there would be some snow in favored spots in the south and east given that pressure is not too high and uppers are -7c or thereabouts at their peak. Given continental air mass and time of year, daytime temps of around zero plus or minus a couples of degrees.

 

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Evening All , Ive seen a few posts on here saying that computer model outputs have not improved over the years , yes they have generally in short term but blocking situations such as the one coming up as far as Im concerned they have not:nonono: But on to the models themselves ecm and gfs agree short term, after that gfs is not interested in bitter winter whilst ecm prolongs the cold into the ten day period. Caution from the ecm viewing , to be honest I think the gfs is more correct , but as I said a few posts ago , how many times have the easterlies delivered memorable cold and snowy winters in the last 50 years ?  I think peoples view on bitter easterlies are way to high , Im going to do a post in the next few weeks to show how rare Easterlies deliver.....But when they do deliver , my God, there the Holy Grail of great and rare winters in the Uk. Meanwhile some nasty stormy weather to endure in the next 24 hrs

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8 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Easterlies in recent years have been like the prequels to Alien.

Overhyped and failed to deliver. The problem is the mere mention easterly then the stampedes to the sledge shop start and often they’ve just had. some snow grains drifting down and slate grey skies.

The key to a good easterly is deep upper cold, and sufficient instability to produce some good North Sea convection.

The actual cold at this stage won’t be modeled accurately so it’s a case of just seeing how things develop .

 

 

Fantastic description ie alien vs easterly nick

think you should think about writing these weather vs movie classic quotes down, they really do help folk learning, cheers.

the ecm tonight does seem a tad progressive imo and has flipped from recent days.

i think somewhere in between ukmo and ecm maybe a good base to grow from.

Edited by snowbob
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1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I would half agree - because we don't get to see enough of it though, are we assuming that's what is behind the Met Office's huge improvement in the extended range, or is it just their senior forecasters ability to decipher when a model is right or wrong - I'm sure there was once when an Easterly was on the agenda a few years ago and all 3 major models ops showed the Atlantic much nearer threatening to break through and the late night FAX had the Easterly locked in with a weak front heading West.

5a4bebdf1a308_ScreenShot2018-01-02at20_22_35.thumb.png.2cfea2ab835d439d6e121cda0625dfee.png

In terms of model output, the Met office have a lot of data to work with. The above chart shows this well. Also interesting point to note is that the Met office also hold the licensing rights for the ECMWF in the UK        "The UK Met Office is a member of ECMWF and a leading licensing agent of ECMWF products. and services. Commercial users can license data from the ECMWF catalogue via any of the nominated member state licensing agents." 

Bit of a monopoly if you ask me :nonono:

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2 minutes ago, ghoneym said:

5a4bebdf1a308_ScreenShot2018-01-02at20_22_35.thumb.png.2cfea2ab835d439d6e121cda0625dfee.png

In terms of model output, the Met office have a lot of data to work with. The above chart shows this well. Also interesting point to note is that the Met office also hold the licensing rights for the ECMWF in the UK        "The UK Met Office is a member of ECMWF and a leading licensing agent of ECMWF products. and services. Commercial users can license data from the ECMWF catalogue via any of the nominated member state licensing agents." 

Bit of a monopoly if you ask me :nonono:

Yes, Ive got that page in my favourites - it says that the MOGREPS only go out to just over 7 days now though???

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I agree with Blizzard in that the actual scandi high will be a blend of GFS and ECM

You know an accurate method of model prediction would be all of you voting on likely accuracy of GFS and ECM at say 7 days BUT with money on the outcome. That pressure map would be highly accurate I would say, but not as accurate as the quantum computing methods that will be used in the near future. Imagine viewing a 3D pressure map with colours representing percentage chances against time. It'll be very immersive...you will truly be able to 'see' where the intricacies and butterflies lie.

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46 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

The MOGREPS is a very very useful forecasting tool it seems. I hold it in high regard as, as you say, it very often calls the correct outcome.

Mogreps/ or met-office global and regional ensemble prediction model is obviously a super -format computer system.

And on a global scale is to my knowledge as correct @around 60 hrs out as most other raw data...(operationals.)

Globally-it transpires as an'optional evolution!?..

But i believe on a fractional divergence its obviously a top tool??..

And is programed for major exact-on a uk broadscale-obviously, just that... the uk met office....

Edit ;

So on overview-again large scale telecons, are of little importance to our miniscule geography..

Please or offend!!!

Edited by tight isobar
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Just now, snowbob said:

Fantastic description ie alien vs easterly nick

think you should think about writing these film vs movie classic quotes down, they really do help folk learning.

the ecm tonight does seem a tad progressive imo and has flipped from recent days.

i think somewhere in between ukmo and ecm maybe a good base to grow from.

God those Alien prequels, don’t get me started! :D 

And thankfully no one mentioned the Star Wars ones , I’d be apoplectic ! Dire just a cash cow. I could care less about any of those new characters !

Anyway moving on ! :reindeer-emoji:

Hopefully in the morning we should finally get some agreement. The ECM/GEM and UKMO all disagree with the GFS.

I’d be more concerned if the UKMO didn’t want to know as that’s often the decider with anything Scandi based.

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The more I think about it, the more I feel that the last couple of ecm ops have underestimated the northern arm of the jet. This should all be resolved in the next couple of days though.

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Personally I think chance plays a large part to where the high ends up but any of these outcomes is possible in my eyes. This winter has been colder from the outset with a diving trough scenario so maybe ECM could be onto something just maybe this time

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Just now, tight isobar said:

Anyway..here and now public data..

18z gfs will likely firm towards ecm..

Although not as juicy as the canadian peach model...?

That's a very big statement to make, we shall find out soon! I am a coldie, but always expect the unexpected. That's what I have learnt in my 23 years of being alive so far

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5 minutes ago, ShortWaveHell said:

How did the ecm op sit within its ensemble ? Had to be an outlier of cold sorts ? 

By no means an outlier. 

I’d love to see the ECM stamps if anyone has them ?

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Interesting talk about MOGREPS,and i dare say it probably is one of the best models not readily available for us to see which is probably just as well as it would only take one failed Easterly from it and its reputation would be straight into NOGAPS territory.:D

 

Anyway,hats off to the GEM if the Easterly train makes it to the station.

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Is anyone getting a sense of dejavu with last January?? The ECM op was adamant on an easterly for days - the ECM mean had a source of easterly but never actually took blocking above our latitude - and the op eventually moved towards the mean and further:

here's the op runs from that period:

ECM1-216.GIF?12  ECM1-192.GIF?12  ECM1-168.GIF?12  ECM1-144.GIF?12  ECM1-120.GIF?12

And here's the mean runs (note the difference at the top of Scandinavia):

EDM1-216.GIF?12  EDM1-192.GIF?12  EDM1-168.GIF?12  EDM1-144.GIF?12  EDM1-120.GIF?12

Will be interesting to follow this time! So far...

EDM1-240.GIF?12  EDM1-216.GIF?00  EDM1-216.GIF?02-0 

vs

ECM1-240.GIF?12  ECM1-216.GIF?00  ECM1-216.GIF?12    

I think we can already see two different trends appearing!

 

Edited by Man With Beard
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21 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Easterlies in recent years have been like the prequels to Alien.

Overhyped and failed to deliver. The problem is the mere mention easterly then the stampedes to the sledge shop start and often they’ve just had. some snow grains drifting down and slate grey skies.

The key to a good easterly is deep upper cold, and sufficient instability to produce some good North Sea convection.

The actual cold at this stage won’t be modeled accurately so it’s a case of just seeing how things develop .

If you’re not going to have the convection it’s better to take the risk with a front trying to move in from the west or the pattern retrogresses to allow troughing to drop south over Scandi.

 

Very much so Nick

The current ecm progged easterlyl looks a ,bit fur coat and no knickers, to me the uppers don,t really catch the eye bar one day. The syoptics look great but unless a chunk of the pv or a very cold pool slips down the back and around the high I don,t see anything truly spectacular certainly (for the moment at least) No 87 or 91 in the offing based on whats on offer at. The moment.

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Evening

debate over this....:D

610day_03.thumb.gif.e3c38276886cc852d7b872fa6caadae4.gif

De-built lookes even more promising than last night for an easterly now with just a few stragglers(stragglers please don't verify:D)

tonights and last nights

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Oslo heights going for 1040 mb now,higher than yesterday's.

prmslOslo.png

as for the ecm and gem,they would be snow making machines like 2010,can we get this again:)

 

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