Jump to content
Cold?
Local
Radar
Snow?

Model output discussion - into 2018


Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
    2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

    Its typical that the site which had it has a problem and we're not getting any updates. So just when we'd be very interested to see it we can't !

    Thanks Nick, that's a pity. 

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Spotted a post you think may be an issue? Please help the team by reporting it.
    • Replies 5.2k
    • Created
    • Last Reply

    Top Posters In This Topic

    Top Posters In This Topic

    Popular Posts

    An ode to the model output thread... "In days of old, when Thatcher was bold and Kettley was a weatherman, Tales are told of winters cold, and snow lay everywhere, man.   The World Wide Web

    We should rename thread the ‘miserable git’ thread -  So much negativity & misery in here I’m surprised people even make it out of bed. updated 06z JMA joins the euro party to 84

    Find 1 post that I said it would be a convective Easterly - The problem with you ( & many others ) is you read one thing but assume another. The forecast was a blend of the GEM / ECM 

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
    4 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

    Its typical that the site which had it has a problem and we're not getting any updates. So just when we'd be very interested to see it we can't !

    You can see it, you just have to go round the houses a bit. 

    Last night's 12z runs appeared about 8.20ish, so have a look here in about half an hour:

    https://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tcgenDAT/2018/

    A folder called 2018010212 will appear and all the charts will be in there. Just scroll down to the files prefixed ukm2.

    But on second thoughts, why bother? It's just nature and you can't predict it apparently.:D

     

    Edited by Yarmy
    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
    1 minute ago, shaky said:

    Ive seen forecasts from mogreps flip far too many times before!!all the ensembles could be showing cold but then they completely flip the next day!!lets see where the next 24 hours takes us!!

    Well we mere peasants say EC is king but really MOGREPS is, just we never see what’s being churned out well I guess a very small few do have access IF for one, last winter it never jumped on board really and it proved right. 

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Sunny crisp frosty days & Thunderstorms
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside

    P8 and P13 have the mid-term pattern boxed off quite nicely. Forget the rest they ARE correct! :snowman-emoji:

    gensnh-8-1-180.thumb.png.2fd2847ceb4456000cde96292c195169.pnggensnh-13-1-180.thumb.png.7c7cc79890845baba6cf9b7500e349a7.png

    • Like 2
    • Thanks 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
    Just now, Daniel* said:

    Well we mere peasants say EC is king but really MOGREPS is, just we never see what’s being churned out well I guess a very small few do have access IF for one, last winter it never jumped on board really and it proved right. 

    The MOGREPS is a very very useful forecasting tool it seems. I hold it in high regard as, as you say, it very often calls the correct outcome.

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Methil, Fife
  • Weather Preferences: Baltic
  • Location: Methil, Fife
    10 minutes ago, offerman said:

    I could say the same , Evidence they have changed for better? Look how many times they get it wrong chop and change even near term. Look in SW thread to see posters there saying how often forecasters get it wrong. Probably other threads too.

     

    Its just nature and cant predict it  is all im saying. 

    5a4be4000f263_ScreenShot2018-01-02at19_56_05.thumb.png.2ffe03416cb0ea50eaa051edc042bf15.png

    Evidence of increasing skill score from the ECM and GFS 0000 UTC forecasts as shown by trends in the Anomaly Correlation Coefficient associated with forecasts of 500 hPa height over the Northern and Southern Hemispheres generated 5 days in advance, and verified against 500 hPa height analyses from the originating centres

    • Thanks 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Location: Banbury
    3 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

    The MOGREPS is a very very useful forecasting tool it seems. I hold it in high regard as, as you say, it very often calls the correct outcome.

    Didn’t MOGREPS call a front loaded winter last year ? 

    • Like 4
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire

    Having scanned all the output, I feel we will have a watered down version of the last couple of ecm /gem ops. Been here so many times before and I think the ecm and gem are probably leading us a merry dance. They are overcooking heights towards Iceland post day 7. Of course I hope I am wrong but those are my thoughts. 

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
    Just now, Banbury said:

    Didn’t MOGREPS call a front loaded winter last year ? 

    No, MOGREPS aren't a seasonal forecasting tool. The GLOSEA5 I think went for the front loaded winter.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Sydney, Australia
  • Weather Preferences: Snow!
  • Location: Sydney, Australia
    1 hour ago, chicken soup said:

    And that someone will be me...easterlies are no good for here ..snowise.

    They are when a low comes bashing into the cold, and a battleground commences though! I grew up in East Anglia where rare E's always provided lots of snow showers, but I was always envious when a low came barging in and the W and NW got dumped on! I have now lived in Manchester for 4 1/2 years and I am moving back to Australia in 2018 and it hasn't happened since I have lived here(yet).. hopefully 2018 will change things!

    Edited by i luv snow
    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Location: Banbury
    1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

    No, MOGREPS aren't a seasonal forecasting tool. The GLOSEA5 I think went for the front loaded winter.

    Just asking ?? I’m sure last year MOGREPS was thrown in somewhere might be wrong though

     

    cheers 

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
    2 minutes ago, Banbury said:

    Just asking ?? I’m sure last year MOGREPS was thrown in somewhere might be wrong though

     

    cheers

    It was more the EC weeklies that led us a merry dance last year. Phantom European low heights that never materialised.

    Edited by CreweCold
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
    7 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

    Having scanned all the output, I feel we will have a watered down version of the last couple of ecm /gem ops. Been here so many times before and I think the ecm and gem are probably leading us a merry dance. They are overcooking heights towards Iceland post day 7. Of course I hope I am wrong but those are my thoughts. 

    Maybe but the ecm has the best verification stats,and the gfs and gem are similar.Id rather the ECM was showing heights over Iceland than gfs.Still one model is going to be terribly wrong in the next couple of days

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Methil, Fife
  • Weather Preferences: Baltic
  • Location: Methil, Fife
    26 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

    Some not so good news:

    How far out does MOGREPS go? & it’s probably the reason why the UKMO outlook isn’t as good

    5a4be7918e876_ScreenShot2018-01-02at20_11_45.thumb.png.d0469bdc90deb996263fd3c2dce432d7.png

    Out to T+174 by the looks of it 

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
    9 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

    The MOGREPS is a very very useful forecasting tool it seems. I hold it in high regard as, as you say, it very often calls the correct outcome.

    It’s run at very high resolution a lot of computer power. It’s what the Met Office always go off first. I dare say they don’t even bother with GFS, only on infrequent occasions. ECM is a very well respected model internationally by big weather agencies nonetheless no doubt they take it into consideration, often they use a blend of x, y and z.  

    https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/services/data-provision/big-data-drive/wholesale/categories/mogrepsg-user-guide

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Maidstone ❄kent❄
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,Snow & Snow.
  • Location: Maidstone ❄kent❄

    This looks amazing but could I ask steve murr or Nick Sussex or anyone one on here if this looks like a classic Easterly?  I remember back in the 80s if we had a Scandy High we would also need a low over Italy to really feed the cold air and snow showers in to the UK. It may be showing this but I'm not to sure as I'm a novice  when looking at the models.

    Thanks ☺

    20180102_200320.png

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
    1 minute ago, ghoneym said:

    5a4be7918e876_ScreenShot2018-01-02at20_11_45.thumb.png.d0469bdc90deb996263fd3c2dce432d7.png

    Out to T+174 by the looks of it 

    I’ve just seen that funnily enough. Thanks anywho might be interesting for other folk. 

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
    3 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

    It’s run at very high resolution a lot of computer power. It’s what the Met Office always go off first. I dare say they don’t even bother with GFS, only on infrequent occasions. ECM is a very well respected model internationally by big weather agencies nonetheless no doubt they take it into consideration, often they use a blend of x, y and z.  

    https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/services/data-provision/big-data-drive/wholesale/categories/mogrepsg-user-guide

    Why dont they just put mogreps on meteociel instead of gfs then!!it just dont make sense!!if that model is right on more occassions than why not just put it out to the public!!

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

    colours don't seem blue enough! in simple 252 idiots form! just basic reason?

    archives-1987-1-12-12-0.png

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Lucan Co Dublin
  • Location: Lucan Co Dublin
    29 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

    Some not so good news:

    How far out does MOGREPS go? & it’s probably the reason why the UKMO outlook isn’t as good

    I wouldnt  say that is too bad, They are talking about the end of the run??

    29 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

     

     

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
    2 minutes ago, TheBeastFromTheEAST said:

    This looks amazing but could I ask steve murr or Nick Sussex or anyone one on here if this looks like a classic Easterly?  I remember back in the 80s if we had a Scandy High we would also need a low over Italy to really feed the cold air and snow showers in to the UK. It may be showing this but I'm not to sure as I'm a novice  when looking at the models.

    Thanks ☺

    20180102_200320.png

    I’d class a classic easterly as one with a chunk of the PV dropping south to the east and the Scandi high advecting that cold west in tow with a deeper low pressure over northern Italy.

    Those are very rare though . 

    • Thanks 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
    1 minute ago, shaky said:

    Why dont they just put mogreps on meteociel instead of gfs then!!it just dont make sense!!if that model is right on more occassions than why not just put it out to the public!!

    They have to recoup the no doubt substantial cost of building it! Giving it away for free would not help. It is what it is.

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
    6 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

    Essex weather has access to mogreps?

    Yes, only recently they’ve been granted funding for Essex Weather Center to remain operational till March 2019 minimum. They have big clients I would assume, big money/stakes involved means big investment in the best.

    • Thanks 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
    6 minutes ago, TheBeastFromTheEAST said:

    This looks amazing but could I ask steve murr or Nick Sussex or anyone one on here if this looks like a classic Easterly?  I remember back in the 80s if we had a Scandy High we would also need a low over Italy to really feed the cold air and snow showers in to the UK. It may be showing this but I'm not to sure as I'm a novice  when looking at the models.

    Thanks ☺

    20180102_200320.png

    Post update @925

    • Like 5
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Guest
    This topic is now closed to further replies.
    • Cold waves hitting Europe continue to threaten growers, is there a link to climate change?

      Much of Europe, not just the UK, has experienced unseasonably cold weather since the Easter Weekend. A plunge of cold arctic air brought by northerly winds early last week brought several nights of frost and even snow across large swathes of Europe, followed by another wave of cold arctic air spreads across much of Europe this week. The frosts causing damage to new growth in vineyards and orchardsa0spurred on by a late March heatwave, the vineyards of France werea0particularly badly affected.

      Nick F
      Nick F
      Latest weather updates from Netweather

      High pressure rules, but still chilly out the sun & watch out for a few showers

      High pressure in charge for the rest of the week but the airmass will be chilly, so feeling nippy out of the sun. Not entirely dry either, with scattered showers around the next few days, especially in the west. Read the full update here

      Netweather forecasts
      Netweather forecasts
      Latest weather updates from Netweather

      You'll need your coat because it's still cold out of the sun

      More April snow for Monday morning with a widespread frost. If you have outdoor plans this week, the chill in the air remains especially once the sun goes down. Read the full update here

      Netweather forecasts
      Netweather forecasts
      Latest weather updates from Netweather
    • Recently Browsing   0 members

      No registered users viewing this page.

    ×
    ×
    • Create New...