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Model output discussion - into 2018


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2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Its typical that the site which had it has a problem and we're not getting any updates. So just when we'd be very interested to see it we can't !

Thanks Nick, that's a pity. 

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An ode to the model output thread... "In days of old, when Thatcher was bold and Kettley was a weatherman, Tales are told of winters cold, and snow lay everywhere, man.   The World Wide Web

We should rename thread the ‘miserable git’ thread -  So much negativity & misery in here I’m surprised people even make it out of bed. updated 06z JMA joins the euro party to 84

Find 1 post that I said it would be a convective Easterly - The problem with you ( & many others ) is you read one thing but assume another. The forecast was a blend of the GEM / ECM 

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4 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Its typical that the site which had it has a problem and we're not getting any updates. So just when we'd be very interested to see it we can't !

You can see it, you just have to go round the houses a bit. 

Last night's 12z runs appeared about 8.20ish, so have a look here in about half an hour:

https://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tcgenDAT/2018/

A folder called 2018010212 will appear and all the charts will be in there. Just scroll down to the files prefixed ukm2.

But on second thoughts, why bother? It's just nature and you can't predict it apparently.:D

 

Edited by Yarmy
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1 minute ago, shaky said:

Ive seen forecasts from mogreps flip far too many times before!!all the ensembles could be showing cold but then they completely flip the next day!!lets see where the next 24 hours takes us!!

Well we mere peasants say EC is king but really MOGREPS is, just we never see what’s being churned out well I guess a very small few do have access IF for one, last winter it never jumped on board really and it proved right. 

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Just now, Daniel* said:

Well we mere peasants say EC is king but really MOGREPS is, just we never see what’s being churned out well I guess a very small few do have access IF for one, last winter it never jumped on board really and it proved right. 

The MOGREPS is a very very useful forecasting tool it seems. I hold it in high regard as, as you say, it very often calls the correct outcome.

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10 minutes ago, offerman said:

I could say the same , Evidence they have changed for better? Look how many times they get it wrong chop and change even near term. Look in SW thread to see posters there saying how often forecasters get it wrong. Probably other threads too.

 

Its just nature and cant predict it  is all im saying. 

5a4be4000f263_ScreenShot2018-01-02at19_56_05.thumb.png.2ffe03416cb0ea50eaa051edc042bf15.png

Evidence of increasing skill score from the ECM and GFS 0000 UTC forecasts as shown by trends in the Anomaly Correlation Coefficient associated with forecasts of 500 hPa height over the Northern and Southern Hemispheres generated 5 days in advance, and verified against 500 hPa height analyses from the originating centres

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3 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

The MOGREPS is a very very useful forecasting tool it seems. I hold it in high regard as, as you say, it very often calls the correct outcome.

Didn’t MOGREPS call a front loaded winter last year ? 

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Having scanned all the output, I feel we will have a watered down version of the last couple of ecm /gem ops. Been here so many times before and I think the ecm and gem are probably leading us a merry dance. They are overcooking heights towards Iceland post day 7. Of course I hope I am wrong but those are my thoughts. 

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1 hour ago, chicken soup said:

And that someone will be me...easterlies are no good for here ..snowise.

They are when a low comes bashing into the cold, and a battleground commences though! I grew up in East Anglia where rare E's always provided lots of snow showers, but I was always envious when a low came barging in and the W and NW got dumped on! I have now lived in Manchester for 4 1/2 years and I am moving back to Australia in 2018 and it hasn't happened since I have lived here(yet).. hopefully 2018 will change things!

Edited by i luv snow
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1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

No, MOGREPS aren't a seasonal forecasting tool. The GLOSEA5 I think went for the front loaded winter.

Just asking ?? I’m sure last year MOGREPS was thrown in somewhere might be wrong though

 

cheers 

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2 minutes ago, Banbury said:

Just asking ?? I’m sure last year MOGREPS was thrown in somewhere might be wrong though

 

cheers

It was more the EC weeklies that led us a merry dance last year. Phantom European low heights that never materialised.

Edited by CreweCold
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7 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Having scanned all the output, I feel we will have a watered down version of the last couple of ecm /gem ops. Been here so many times before and I think the ecm and gem are probably leading us a merry dance. They are overcooking heights towards Iceland post day 7. Of course I hope I am wrong but those are my thoughts. 

Maybe but the ecm has the best verification stats,and the gfs and gem are similar.Id rather the ECM was showing heights over Iceland than gfs.Still one model is going to be terribly wrong in the next couple of days

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26 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Some not so good news:

How far out does MOGREPS go? & it’s probably the reason why the UKMO outlook isn’t as good

5a4be7918e876_ScreenShot2018-01-02at20_11_45.thumb.png.d0469bdc90deb996263fd3c2dce432d7.png

Out to T+174 by the looks of it 

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9 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

The MOGREPS is a very very useful forecasting tool it seems. I hold it in high regard as, as you say, it very often calls the correct outcome.

It’s run at very high resolution a lot of computer power. It’s what the Met Office always go off first. I dare say they don’t even bother with GFS, only on infrequent occasions. ECM is a very well respected model internationally by big weather agencies nonetheless no doubt they take it into consideration, often they use a blend of x, y and z.  

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/services/data-provision/big-data-drive/wholesale/categories/mogrepsg-user-guide

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This looks amazing but could I ask steve murr or Nick Sussex or anyone one on here if this looks like a classic Easterly?  I remember back in the 80s if we had a Scandy High we would also need a low over Italy to really feed the cold air and snow showers in to the UK. It may be showing this but I'm not to sure as I'm a novice  when looking at the models.

Thanks ☺

20180102_200320.png

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1 minute ago, ghoneym said:

5a4be7918e876_ScreenShot2018-01-02at20_11_45.thumb.png.d0469bdc90deb996263fd3c2dce432d7.png

Out to T+174 by the looks of it 

I’ve just seen that funnily enough. Thanks anywho might be interesting for other folk. 

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3 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

It’s run at very high resolution a lot of computer power. It’s what the Met Office always go off first. I dare say they don’t even bother with GFS, only on infrequent occasions. ECM is a very well respected model internationally by big weather agencies nonetheless no doubt they take it into consideration, often they use a blend of x, y and z.  

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/services/data-provision/big-data-drive/wholesale/categories/mogrepsg-user-guide

Why dont they just put mogreps on meteociel instead of gfs then!!it just dont make sense!!if that model is right on more occassions than why not just put it out to the public!!

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29 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Some not so good news:

How far out does MOGREPS go? & it’s probably the reason why the UKMO outlook isn’t as good

I wouldnt  say that is too bad, They are talking about the end of the run??

29 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

 

 

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2 minutes ago, TheBeastFromTheEAST said:

This looks amazing but could I ask steve murr or Nick Sussex or anyone one on here if this looks like a classic Easterly?  I remember back in the 80s if we had a Scandy High we would also need a low over Italy to really feed the cold air and snow showers in to the UK. It may be showing this but I'm not to sure as I'm a novice  when looking at the models.

Thanks ☺

20180102_200320.png

I’d class a classic easterly as one with a chunk of the PV dropping south to the east and the Scandi high advecting that cold west in tow with a deeper low pressure over northern Italy.

Those are very rare though . 

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1 minute ago, shaky said:

Why dont they just put mogreps on meteociel instead of gfs then!!it just dont make sense!!if that model is right on more occassions than why not just put it out to the public!!

They have to recoup the no doubt substantial cost of building it! Giving it away for free would not help. It is what it is.

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6 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

Essex weather has access to mogreps?

Yes, only recently they’ve been granted funding for Essex Weather Center to remain operational till March 2019 minimum. They have big clients I would assume, big money/stakes involved means big investment in the best.

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6 minutes ago, TheBeastFromTheEAST said:

This looks amazing but could I ask steve murr or Nick Sussex or anyone one on here if this looks like a classic Easterly?  I remember back in the 80s if we had a Scandy High we would also need a low over Italy to really feed the cold air and snow showers in to the UK. It may be showing this but I'm not to sure as I'm a novice  when looking at the models.

Thanks ☺

20180102_200320.png

Post update @925

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