Jump to content

Model output discussion - into 2018


Recommended Posts

  • Replies 5.2k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

An ode to the model output thread... "In days of old, when Thatcher was bold and Kettley was a weatherman, Tales are told of winters cold, and snow lay everywhere, man.   The World Wide Web

We should rename thread the ‘miserable git’ thread -  So much negativity & misery in here I’m surprised people even make it out of bed. updated 06z JMA joins the euro party to 84

Find 1 post that I said it would be a convective Easterly - The problem with you ( & many others ) is you read one thing but assume another. The forecast was a blend of the GEM / ECM 

Posted Images

A very good run from the ECM but room for improvement in the early stages in terms of depth of cold.

In terms of the initial depth of cold the UKMO is better. Still an issue with low heights not getting further se and being too Iberian based.

In the cold light of day I give it 8/10.

 

  • Like 5
Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, northwestsnow said:

Nail biting stuff mate..

Prayer mats out for GEM/EC ...

Gripping stuff - we DESPERATELY need Exeter to change tone ..soon.

Not reall nws. The update says moving  erratically east which suggests to me that they are not convinced in that outcome

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Nail biting stuff mate..

Prayer mats out for GEM/EC ...

Gripping stuff - we DESPERATELY need Exeter to change tone ..soon.

Probably pertinent to point out that even if the GFS is wrong and we get a UKMO middle ground scenario, it probably won't be enough to tee us up nicely for an ECM type evolution. It's pretty much all or nothing WRT the easterly.

  • Haha 1
  • Confused 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Wow wow wow, stunning run.  Lovely uppers at 192, feeling absolutely frigid with the easterly flow.  

ECU0-192.GIF?02-0

What's great is that at 240, there's further chances a plenty!  As Tight Isobar brilliantly put it, the freezer door truly is padlocked with a bit of super glue for good measure.  C'mon 18z, time to join the party.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

A classic easterly on ECM one for the archives if it pulled off, ice days for most powdery snow showers widely in E/SE lovely. Perfect time of the year for it we coldies have been through a lot just once eh? :) 

Edited by Daniel*
  • Like 5
Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Just a word of warning, despite the coldish uppers, there would be very little precipitation with that Easterly, you need lower 500mb heights for it to be a classic.

Yes it's by no means a classic, but it would be ten times better than the crud we've had in recent years.

  • Like 7
  • Haha 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

So we have storm, stacks of rain, another storm and then a plunge of bitter cold air with N, ywith snow, snow showers and if ECM has it right.......an easterly lock out at t216.   Beeb will probably say 7 c for London on the weekend, but that will change.

I’m not convinced of an easterly lockout, but I do think we have 7 day cold spell with a battle to follow between Atlantic and big block over Scandi.  What is in the mix imo are sliders under the block.  Let this targeted period in the ‘rhythm of winter’ come forth

ECM is just one hell of a run

 

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
  • Like 7
Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, o0herbie said:

Just been taking a look at forecast temperatures for Poland and Ukraine - they are currently, and forecast to be, comfortably above zero. 

5a4bd7bb42ca3_ScreenShot2018-01-02at19_03_49.thumb.png.a814625cbbc1906585c2e791370aa491.png

The cold we tap into comes from much further north. They can keep their warmth while we bathe in cold swathes of ice days :D 

 

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

That was one of the best runs I think we have seen for a good few years. The synoptics are virtually a classic and although uppers could and should be better at this time of year they are not to shabby either. I must say in support of the ecm run that it has been steadfast and in fact seems to be upgrading the cold and longevity of cold spell with every run.

Excellent stuff.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
21 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

ECM 144> 168 & into 192 is about as classic as you can get tonight...

Synoptically yes. However we need much colder uppers if we are to experience a proper classic on the ground. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

Well if this ecm beasterly fails.  The member known as That ECM will have to change his name to Those two ECM,s

Though this run is ace, “that ECM” still has a mythical quality that will be hard to beat...

  • Haha 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
20 minutes ago, That ECM said:

It's looking the less favourite but.......... oh the fun of the chase especially when it's for an easterly. Let's be honest thos it will take all 3 on board and down to t72 before we get really excited and then someone will moan that their area looks dry!!

And that someone will be me...easterlies are no good for here ..snowise.

Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Matthew Gill said:

Does this chart show the a scandi high linking up with a high in the Atlantic and if so what would the outcome be??Screenshot_20180102-190406.thumb.png.fb16eb9278baa95df1d0891571d33e6f.png

Potential retrogression then if we're lucky the high will be off to Greenland.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Though this run is ace, “that ECM” still has a mythical quality that will be hard to beat...

There was that ECM or GFS early January last year I think it had -16C minima in London it was the most bitingly cold run I’ve ever seen a real beast from the east bit like 1987.  :blink2:

Typically every year without fail we get at least one run that is out this world... 9/10 goes bad. 

Edited by Daniel*
  • Sad 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Synoptically yes. However we need much colder uppers if we are to experience a proper classic on the ground. 

In 2012/13 EC overestimated the uppers a lot, but that was of course a long time ago and we haven't had proper cold spells since, so no idea if this still is the case

Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, smhouston said:

A lot of people writing of the GFS...do so at your peril. We've been here time and time again, where there is always one model on it's own and things end up being watered down towards that model.

Situations like this, you have to be getting them within T48 to even start feeling confident. As things stand, things are still in FI

Nice viewing, but that's all so far

Yes agreed. EC & GEM closest and go on to be crackers but as you rightly state huge caution needed as UKMO & GFS are starting to go on their own paths from 72/96. UKMO still not bad and GFS the least liked option on the table.

ECH1-96.GIF.thumb.png.78fb1049fbf359784cdfeb318bba242f.pnggemnh-0-96.thumb.png.ccb6025d7ec245549fa39d4899fbe111.pngUN96-21.thumb.GIF.3eed3abd9a4268d30fe6487015c0494b.GIFgfsnh-0-96.thumb.png.14d587116b8b1542b6cd0a6f3c16f4c2.png

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Well, it's an upgrade on the 00z Ecm..miles better than the Gfs so if I was offered this on a plate I would gratefully accept it!!!..the first Easterly of the winter could be on the way!!!:cold-emoji::)...getting interesting now isn't it coldies...:smile:☺??

168_mslp850.png

168_thickuk.png

192_mslp500.png

192_thickuk.png

192_mslp850uk.png

216_mslp850.png

216_thickuk.png

216_mslp850uk.png

240_mslp850.png

240_mslp850uk.png

  • Like 7
Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Just a word of warning, despite the coldish uppers, there would be very little precipitation with that Easterly, you need lower 500mb heights for it to be a classic.

Indeed, but in almost all easterlies, get the cold in first and then look toward a widespread snow event. Much my preferred pattern, just a pain they only crop up every other decade (ish), or so it seems of late anyway!

Edited by karlos1983
  • Like 5
Link to post
Share on other sites

It's worth remembering that Easterlies rarely ever arrive with very cold uppers piling in from the outset.

Whilst I too would urge copious amounts of caution at this stage, to pick any sort of (major) fault with this run would just be plain wrong.

Obviously some places would do better than others in the UK (as in every cold spell) but take away any IMBYism and this is a seriously good run. A proper classic 80s setup, just getting it forecast on an ECM Op this close in is a very rare thing indeed.

 

  • Like 4
Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, chicken soup said:

And that someone will be me...easterlies are no good for here ..snowise.

Feb 96? 1ft 1/2, for showers i agree but bone dry and cold will do, lets just get it here first mate?

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...