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Model output discussion - into 2018


Paul

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Posted
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snowy, Hot and Dry, Blizzard Conditions
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snowy, Hot and Dry, Blizzard Conditions

I am currently waiting for the aftershow on THAT ecm......I also showed my parents in excitement (I'm 23 years old, I should be able to contain myself!)

Differing opinions for sure this evening, but from what I have seen a halfway solution still isn't likely to be resolved until the weekend in my honest opinion, remember these situations do not happen very often so it makes them even more unpredictable to model let alone forecast in the short range.

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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent

Come on.. give us retrogression to Greenland for 240.. 

Restrogress.thumb.gif.a798f600105384773fb93f89e6d1081f.gif

You could not get a better ECM run if you hand drew the chart yourself. Although, "That ECM" is horribly springing to mind.

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Posted
  • Location: Abingdon - 55m ASL - Capital of The Central Southern England Corridor of Winter Convectionlessness
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Snow>Freezing Fog; Summer: Sun>Daytime Storms
  • Location: Abingdon - 55m ASL - Capital of The Central Southern England Corridor of Winter Convectionlessness
22 minutes ago, Danny* said:

Hell, T144 is about as close to a classic Scandinavian High as you can get!!

Well, T+0 would be better - only 12 more runs to go.

Edited by The Enforcer
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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
2 minutes ago, That ECM said:

It's looking the less favourite but.......... oh the fun of the chase especially when it's for an easterly. Let's be honest thos it will take all 3 on board and down to t72 before we get really excited and then someone will moan that their area looks dry!!

Well if EC is correct, great for my location off a convective easterly

ECM1-192.GIF?02-0

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

OMG, Beasterly Nirvana here we come!:D:bomb: :cold-emoji:

ECM1-216.gif

ECM0-216.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le
  • Weather Preferences: snowy winters,warm summers and Storms
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le
2 minutes ago, That ECM said:

It's looking the less favourite but.......... oh the fun of the chase especially when it's for an easterly. Let's be honest thos it will take all 3 on board and down to t72 before we get really excited and then someone will moan that their area looks dry!!

Will it snow in Cardiff :D

C.S

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1 minute ago, Snowmadsam said:

I am currently waiting for the aftershow on THAT ecm......I also showed my parents in excitement (I'm 23 years old, I should be able to contain myself!)

You broke the sacred rule! , we are now DoOOoOmEd!

Jokes aside, great turn around today.

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Posted
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snowy, Hot and Dry, Blizzard Conditions
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snowy, Hot and Dry, Blizzard Conditions
1 minute ago, Jason M said:

Hmm, still disagreements in the models though. Like Brexit nothing is agreed until everything is agreed :).

Please don't do this now...especially on a EUROPEAN CENTRE MEDIUM WEATHER FORECAST model ;)

here comes 240 at any second....and breathe! I wonder how many will be staying awake for the pub run.

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Posted
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset

Oh no, seriously ECM, what are you trying to do to us!!...?

ECMOPNH12_192_1.thumb.png.c80cf937809abe0a56590dfa86958710.png

ECM is flipping perfect midterm. An absolute classic Scandi high / easterly set up. The ECM couldn't be that cruel twice to us now. Could it!? :D

Unusual to see this early January. More of a very early winter / February setup.

Dare we, dare we dream...?

 

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Posted
  • Location: Droitwich
  • Weather Preferences: Cold cold cold!!
  • Location: Droitwich
5 minutes ago, That ECM said:

It's looking the less favourite but.......... oh the fun of the chase especially when it's for an easterly. Let's be honest thos it will take all 3 on board and down to t72 before we get really excited and then someone will moan that their area looks dry!!

And if it doesn’t materialise will you change your name to THIS/THAT ECM. ????

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

What could possibly go wrong????..don't answer that!!!:D:cold-emoji:

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Posted
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.

So ECM will move towards the Gfs will it'............mmm

More like move towards the Gem.

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
4 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

ECM looks amazing. But, we have seen it churn out amazing runs like this before. 

Yes, we’ve seen similar in years gone I’d be very cautious but since EC has been ugraded/updated I’ve noticed it rarely gets carried away as it once did which makes 12z very intriguing. 

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

So it's ECM and GEM op Vs GEFS, GFS and presumably the Metoffice MOGREPS. UKMO operational 50/50 between the two camps.

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

Jet+flatline!!!.

The flow is as fluid as running Water.

And the freezer door is padlocked.  

Await gfs 18z for exactions!!!!

ECM4-240.gif

ECM0-216.gif

Edited by tight isobar
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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

So it's ECM and GEM op Vs GEFS, GFS and presumably the Metoffice MOGREPS. UKMO operational 50/50 between the two camps.

Nail biting stuff mate..

Prayer mats out for GEM/EC ...

Gripping stuff - we DESPERATELY need Exeter to change tone ..soon.

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