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Model output discussion - into 2018


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An ode to the model output thread... "In days of old, when Thatcher was bold and Kettley was a weatherman, Tales are told of winters cold, and snow lay everywhere, man.   The World Wide Web

We should rename thread the ‘miserable git’ thread -  So much negativity & misery in here I’m surprised people even make it out of bed. updated 06z JMA joins the euro party to 84

Find 1 post that I said it would be a convective Easterly - The problem with you ( & many others ) is you read one thing but assume another. The forecast was a blend of the GEM / ECM 

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Ecm showing the way??!!..

Heights are in good situ..and as again..forming for colder incur via cold pooling to the east..

Gfs truly out of kilter..

Though, my money is in an'18z gfs ecm/gem(canadian) variation...

The wrap is eager, for greenland placement...but with weaker stability east of iceland the modeling i think will become even more 'eyecatching'....

Ec leading the way!

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35 minutes ago, abbie123 said:

Gem has this nailed why can't it  ... its been very  consistent run to run ..:D

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I want to believe I really do but ....

Cracking t144 chart by the ecm . Originally the thought was all or nothing first bite but Teits did say it may take two bites and its starting to perhaps look like this might be the case.  Much better heights over the pole and wow to the t168 chart. I believe, I believe.

ECH1-144.GIF?02-0ECH1-168.GIF?02-0

 

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Those that suggested this run would edge towards the gfs and those that said the ecm would downgrade? This is a two finger answer:D:D seriously tho, it's not about second guessing and ego it's about watching and enjoying. FWIW I'm not suggesting ecm has it right, time will tell eh? Little blob of -12 heading for Mr Murrs house:D

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Just one observation on GFS.

If we look at then ensembles in graph form then it might seem to be a bit of a downgrade, especially re 850 temps.

But if you wade through the ensembles then it is clear they are increasing the strength of the block and slowly seeing the potential for undercut.

A couple of days ago all the models were bringing the Atlantic in after a couple of days, now we are seeing battleground scenarios and even classic undercut with the high getting further North as is required to draw in the colder upper air.

So the big picture is really quite favourable and say that as someone who expected the block to break down within 3 days.

If it does hold on and we start to see undercut modelled more consistently then some nice upgrades should be in the pipeline - I'm still not totally convinced even though I hope it happens.

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3 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Those that suggested this run would edge towards the gfs and those that said the ecm would downgrade? This is a two finger answer:D:D seriously tho, it's not about second guessing and ego it's about watching and enjoying. FWIW I'm not suggesting ecm has it right, time will tell eh?

IMG_0281.PNG

Surely 18Z will be the one that backtracks, maybe 00Z though, GFS surely wrong here according to experts

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Differences start as early as 72 hours on the gfs!!firstly that deeper low which mixes out all the cold before it reaches south and then the shortwave around iceland remains attached to the vortex across the northwest!!need to see less deep low at 72 hours on 18z and also seperation of shortwave around iceland!!

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Just now, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Surely 18Z will be the one that backtracks, maybe 00Z though, GFS surely wrong here according to experts

It's looking the less favourite but.......... oh the fun of the chase especially when it's for an easterly. Let's be honest thos it will take all 3 on board and down to t72 before we get really excited and then someone will moan that their area looks dry!!

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