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Model output discussion - into 2018


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An ode to the model output thread... "In days of old, when Thatcher was bold and Kettley was a weatherman, Tales are told of winters cold, and snow lay everywhere, man.   The World Wide Web

We should rename thread the ‘miserable git’ thread -  So much negativity & misery in here I’m surprised people even make it out of bed. updated 06z JMA joins the euro party to 84

Find 1 post that I said it would be a convective Easterly - The problem with you ( & many others ) is you read one thing but assume another. The forecast was a blend of the GEM / ECM 

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8 minutes ago, Joshua said:

Worth looking at this fantastically in-depth forecast from Gavin Partridge. 

If the GFS fails I will put it in the shredder, stick the pieces back together one by one and then claim I have a more accurate GFS model than before. 

It's standards continue to slip* away in winter forecasting terms. 

*Wash is probably a better word to put in there, no ice with a GFS slice!

Turned it off when I saw he was using the CFS.

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8 minutes ago, Joshua said:

Worth looking at this fantastically in-depth forecast from Gavin Partridge. 

If the GFS fails I will put it in the shredder, stick the pieces back together one by one and then claim I have a more accurate GFS model than before. 

It's standards continue to slip* away in winter forecasting terms. 

*Wash is probably a better word to put in there, no ice with a GFS slice!

So the US taxpayers finance 6 global weather models: gfs, cfs , coamps, NAVGEM, nasa/Geos and fim and all of them are crap ?, what a waste of money 

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Nope, even the ENS can't seem to lower heights in the Med. Without that, you can forget it.

Looks like GFS doesn't deal with a split jet very well. Seems to always want to push the energy north.

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4 minutes ago, ArHu3 said:

So the US taxpayers finance 6 global weather models: gfs, cfs , coamps, NAVGEM, nasa/Geos and fim and all of them are crap ?, what a waste of money 

whats the best one to use please.

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9 minutes ago, ArHu3 said:

So the US taxpayers finance 6 global weather models: gfs, cfs , coamps, NAVGEM, nasa/Geos and fim and all of them are crap ?, what a waste of money 

I wasn't going to put it like that, but let's just say: there's plenty of room for improvement? ?

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9 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

12z GEFS set certainly showing plenty of interest in less energy going over the top of the block. All options still wide open.

That's not what Warren said. Very confusing in here!

Edit. Just checked the ens for myself and yes plenty of interest.

Edited by Johnp
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36 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

NOAA's last update re the MJO came down in favour of the ECM forecasts not the GEFS because they have better verification and seeing as the MJO is playing an instrumental role in the outlook then I'd be wary of what the GFS does.

We are due another update later this evening from the Global Tropics Hazards outlook so it will be interesting to see what they have to say then.

I would be wary of putting to much faith in the MJO. Not everyone agrees that the MJO is playing an instrumental role in the outlook at all. There are plenty more factors at play.

Disregarding the gem ( I think I have made my feelings clear on that model) just when I start to be persuaded that this could possible be a noteworthy cold spell along comes another set of runs and my worst fears of poor amplification and the cold disappearing to the south are re-affirmed. This could still turn into a blink and you  will miss it affair unfortunately. By now  you would have thought the emphasis of topic would be distribution of snow showers and how cold will it get, not will we get an east or north easterly or not. bah humbug.

Edited by comet
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I know the gem isn’t particularly trusted on here but it’s value imo is that occasionally it picks a winner. It picked this Scandi ridge  first and it might just be right on this occasion. 

About forty five mins till we know where ec op is heading ...... initial ridge may be a bit flat (ironically advecting lower uppers) but the second coming via the stalling trough could be the interesting part. 

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2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

I know the gem isn’t particularly trusted on here but it’s value imo is that occasionally it picks a winner. It picked this Scandi ridge  first and it might just be right on this occasion. 

About forty five mins till we know where ec op is heading ...... initial ridge may be a bit flat (ironically advecting lower uppers) but the second coming via the stalling trough could be the interesting part. 

NOAA uses the gem ensemble too for their forecasts, they wouldn't do it if it were a rubbish model 

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/ens/NAEFS.html

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Can we keep it to the models please, and those responding to the off topic stuff are just making any issues that much worse, so please don't. 

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1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

I know the gem isn’t particularly trusted on here but it’s value imo is that occasionally it picks a winner. It picked this Scandi ridge  first and it might just be right on this occasion. 

About forty five mins till we know where ec op is heading ...... initial ridge may be a bit flat (ironically advecting lower uppers) but the second coming via the stalling trough could be the interesting part. 

All models have slightly different algorithms otherwise they would all churn out basically the same, equally I'm sure inputs for each are not the same hence the need to take each with a pinch of salt and see how each handles different situations. Gem does has its moments and if the scandi ridge does come off then your right it pick it first.

I'm not sure why some get so het up about individual models if you don't trust it don't use it

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10 minutes ago, comet said:

I would be wary of putting to much faith in the MJO. Not everyone agrees that the MJO is playing an instrumental role in the outlook at all. There are plenty more factors at play.

Disregarding the gem ( I think I have made my feelings clear on that model) just when I start to be persuaded that this could possible be a noteworthy cold spell along comes another set of runs and my worst fears of poor amplification and the cold disappearing to the south are re-affirmed. This could still turn into a blink and you  will miss it affair unfortunately. By now  you would have thought the emphasis of topic would be distribution of snow showers and how cold will it get, not will we get an east or north easterly or not. bah humbug.

Normally with Scandi highs the problem is the how the cold pool advects west but in this instance any initial cold is coming from the north/ne.

The pattern isn't too far south but too far north, if the high stays further north at the start of the evolution then that suggests high pressure in the Med is coming into play which isn't what we want to see.

The key is to drive low heights as far east and se into Europe to block off that ridge from the Med.

Low heights over the north Med mean the block can't sink, the issue we've had is a sag of the high on the eastern flank.

If you get to the point of the trough disrupting upstream then you'd want the high to then be forced further nw to increase the forcing on the Atlantic.

I can understand your frustration but this model drama seems par for the course with anything that involves high pressure to the ne.

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7 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

I know the gem isn’t particularly trusted on here but it’s value imo is that occasionally it picks a winner. It picked this Scandi ridge  first and it might just be right on this occasion. 

About forty five mins till we know where ec op is heading ...... initial ridge may be a bit flat (ironically advecting lower uppers) but the second coming via the stalling trough could be the interesting part. 

Maybe of interest to folk here - stats show that GEM is verifying 3rd/4th and often swaps places with GFS. :D

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