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Model output discussion - into 2018


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1 minute ago, Daniel* said:

That’s right but southerly winds for SE Europe drag up warmer air which curve easterly towards us.

I don't agree, the Isolines seems more from SE then SSE direction by 156 hr.  Whatever the case its got it 'warming' up. I will side with the UKMO/GEM on this one (I mean no disrespect to you over this :friends:).

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An ode to the model output thread... "In days of old, when Thatcher was bold and Kettley was a weatherman, Tales are told of winters cold, and snow lay everywhere, man.   The World Wide Web

We should rename thread the ‘miserable git’ thread -  So much negativity & misery in here I’m surprised people even make it out of bed. updated 06z JMA joins the euro party to 84

Find 1 post that I said it would be a convective Easterly - The problem with you ( & many others ) is you read one thing but assume another. The forecast was a blend of the GEM / ECM 

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1 minute ago, frosty ground said:

graphe_ens3.php?newmode=1&x=243&y=27&run

This is the GEM Ensembles, which suggest to me that the Op is not really supported

That’s from this morning 00z and I can’t see where the operational fits in with that.....

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Just now, mulzy said:

Is there any where we can the output from MOGREPS?  Last I heard the met Office is a public institution that you and I finance!

Quite agree. No idea why we cannot have access to the modelling that, at the end of the day, you and I pay for. This is a whole different debate though! 

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2 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Indeed it does brings in a very mild southwesterly from Azores by day 10 I wouldn’t blame those who wrote off the remainder for January if that verified. Good thing there’s so much water to go under the bridge.. 

B9854E1B-8EF3-4C66-B204-17143256B502.thumb.png.8be3eed87d506a4e7c73ea00862cf28e.png

Why it's just a snap shot in time and the pattern we have seen so far this winter looks to carry on.

gfs-0-288.png?12

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2 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

graphe_ens3.php?newmode=1&x=243&y=27&run

This is the GEM Ensembles, which suggest to me that the Op is not really supported
graphe_ens3.php?newmode=1&x=312&y=144&ru
And further south (London)

They look better than the GEFS though wrt longjevity, there are at least 4 or 5 extending the cold for a week, whereas the last few suites its just been the odd lone straggler on the GEFS until right at the end when PM returns.

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NOAA's last update re the MJO came down in favour of the ECM forecasts not the GEFS because they have better verification and seeing as the MJO is playing an instrumental role in the outlook then I'd be wary of what the GFS does.

We are due another update later this evening from the Global Tropics Hazards outlook so it will be interesting to see what they have to say then.

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3 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

Why it's just a snap shot in time and the pattern we have seen so far this winter looks to carry on.

gfs-0-288.png?12

I know that just hypothetically. That’s not what the status quo has been so far this winter? Jet stream has been well S allowing frequent cold PM incursions. 

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2 minutes ago, The Eagle said:

I see we are reduced to posting the GEM ensembles

What’s wrong with that the model is almost on par with GFS? In which some on here take as a godsend. 

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10 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Is there any where we can see the output from MOGREPS?  Last I heard the Met Office is a public institution that you and I finance!

Ageee in theory, but they have a commercial business model, so it probably wouldn’t make good business sense. They give us UKMO and all the data on the website, so that’s probably going be the met response. Shame all the same

Edited by karlos1983
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13 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Not being picky but I swear the models had the cold pattern in 2010 nailed down weeks before, it's one of the only cold spells I've seen where the models have a very good handle on things at such long range.

i don't see anything like that severity from this, REALISTICALLY we need perfect sypnotics to get a SEVERE cold spell out of this and not just a cold snap.

Weeks? Ambitious. The signs were there, but the models kept denying the longevity of the cold over and over.

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5 minutes ago, The Eagle said:

I see we are reduced to posting the GEM ensembles

 

 

 

 

We haven’t got started yet - the NAVGEM and CFSv2 will be posted soon.

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3 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Ageee in theory, but they have a commercial business model, so it probably wouldn’t make good business sense. They give us UKMO and all the data on the website, so that’s probably going be the met response. Shame all the same

Compare and contrast with NOAA.

Edited by mulzy
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Gfs remains progressive with the split jet heading ne rather than north which would prop up the block with some WAA

too much reference to meto forecasts for next week and their indication of a breakdown - they are nothing like gfs. They reference an uncertain timescale to a breakdown from the west by the end of the week. Ukmo currently shows Monday lunchtime at T144. GEM only reaches Friday lunchtime. Some of you are getting way ahead of yourselves on timings 

i would expect a less robust block on ecm tonight, simply because the outlook on this block is uncertain and we have seen the op alternating between amplified over Scandi and less so. An amplified run this evening will carry some weight then. 

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1 hour ago, Steve Murr said:

So as the GFS ignites for another run 

if you looking for more sustained deeper cold then the shortwave @108 going through Scandi needs to come SW not SE

503C659F-4023-4862-8922-FDF3BA6C6D09.thumb.png.7327c515e69a75fdb1432a95be04d35c.png

That's fine for me here in Norway! Still outside the reliable (T72) but one lives in hope.

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16 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Indeed it does brings in a very mild southwesterly from Azores by day 10 I wouldn’t blame those who wrote off the remainder for January if that verified. Good thing there’s so much water to go under the bridge.. 

B9854E1B-8EF3-4C66-B204-17143256B502.thumb.png.8be3eed87d506a4e7c73ea00862cf28e.png

I wouldn't write it off. This chart shows lots of interest I think.

Screenshot_20180102-170317.png

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Worth looking at this fantastically in-depth weather forecast from Gavin Partridge released this morning.

If the GFS fails I will put it in the shredder, stick the pieces back together one by one and then claim I have a more accurate GFS model than before. 

It's standards continue to slip* away in winter forecasting terms. 

*I think wash is a better word to put there, no ice with a GFS slice!

Also nice to see nearly 300 signed in browsers earlier on, a couple of hours later, just 27! Browser numbers just as hard to predict as the weather past a week ahead, or even less.

Edited by Joshua
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1 minute ago, Matthew Gill said:

I wouldn't write it off. This chart shows lots of interest I think.

Screenshot_20180102-170317.png

Just a mere 16 days away.  GFS is keen on some cool zonality in FI.

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5 minutes ago, mulzy said:

We haven’t got started yet - the NAVGEM and CFSv2 will be posted soon.

navgem-0-174.png?02-17

We really do need to see a half decent ECM this evening. It's not over for a longer cold period by any means but coldies will want something more positive out of that.

 

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1 minute ago, Matthew Gill said:

I wouldn't write it off. This chart shows lots of interest I think.

Screenshot_20180102-170317.png

I did not look that ahead I did not see that coming, that is interesting for some not my location - story of winter that chart. Cold zonal very rarely delivers for Southern England snow yes but sticking about..1984 last decent one? I appreciate GFS being consistent it has been very eager to introduce cold PM after a stalemate following easterly. 

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1 minute ago, Daniel* said:

I did not look that ahead I did not see that coming, that is interesting for some not my location - story of winter that chart. Cold zonal very rarely delivers for Southern England snow yes but sticking about..1984 last decent one? I appreciate GFS being consistent it has been very eager to introduce cold PM after a stalemate following easterly. 

It's also keen on relocating the trop PV to the Siberian side.

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