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Model output discussion - into 2018


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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 would be nice :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 would be nice :-)
    12 minutes ago, snowray said:

    Yes I got my posts a bit mixed up.:doh:

    I was just thinking that if ECM sticks to its guns like the GEM has then its going to be a memorably victory for the models. They will be the champs alright.

    UKMO says no to extending the cold spell, out at T144 though anything can happen yet of course, the high has not actually sunk yet on that chart.

    UW144-21.gif

    UW144-7.gif

    Yes between 120h & 144h looks like the HP is going in a North/East direction.....Not sinking!!!

    UE120-21_kqf6.GIFUE144-21_gqz9.GIF

    Be interesting to see it at 168h :)

    Edited by Dancerwithwings
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    An ode to the model output thread... "In days of old, when Thatcher was bold and Kettley was a weatherman, Tales are told of winters cold, and snow lay everywhere, man.   The World Wide Web

    We should rename thread the ‘miserable git’ thread -  So much negativity & misery in here I’m surprised people even make it out of bed. updated 06z JMA joins the euro party to 84

    Find 1 post that I said it would be a convective Easterly - The problem with you ( & many others ) is you read one thing but assume another. The forecast was a blend of the GEM / ECM 

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
    Just now, CreweCold said:

    Well yes. We're at the point of peak land mass cooling and at the time where European cold pools can develop in situ. To see virtually the whole of mainland Europe in positive uppers in early January is remarkable to me. 

    Though I guess a lot of us are now seeing things like this as the norm! 

    The Winds are from the south, hence the warm uppers, Plus the Foehn effect of the Air passing over he Alps. perfectly normal for with the Wind Direction.

    gfs-0-96.png?12 Southerly winds from Africa
    gfs-0-144.png?12 Still from a southerly direction. 

    Perfectly Normal, a;ways has been always will be uless Africa and the Med freeze over,

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    Posted
  • Location: Strood, Kent, 19 feet above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Strood, Kent, 19 feet above sea level

    The GFS doing what it always does and blasting blocking away as if it's not even there, it wont develop like that.

    Whether the energy in the Atlantic goes under the block or not as per GEM/ECM is another matter, but the Atlantic certainly wont push in like the GFS has it, too progressive as usual. 

    Good to see GEM sticking to it's guns, lets hope the ECM does the same this evening. UKMO 12z not bad either, closer to the ECM at 144 than it is to the GFS.

    Edited by Danny*
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    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
    Just now, frosty ground said:

    The Winds are from the south, hence the warm uppers, Plus the Foehn effect of the Air passing over he Alps. perfectly normal for with the Wind Direction.

    gfs-0-96.png?12 Southerly winds from Africa
    gfs-0-144.png?12 Still from a southerly direction. 

    Perfectly Normal, a;ways has been always will be uless Africa and the Med freeze over,

    The foehn effect is localised. The foehn effect doesn't cause a whole continent to be massively above the norm in terms of upper cold. On the whole, Europe and west Russia have been anomalously warm for weeks. 

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    Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
    2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

    The foehn effect is localised. The foehn effect doesn't cause a whole continent to be massively above the norm in terms of upper cold. On the whole, Europe and west Russia have been anomalously warm for weeks. 

    It takes only a few days for the Continent to cool down, The synoptics in this case draws even miler uppers arss the west of Europe (again on the GFS at least)

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    Posted
  • Location: Salzburger Sportwelt Lungau/ Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Salzburger Sportwelt Lungau/ Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
    7 minutes ago, carinthian said:

      UKMO run looks fine to me. Certainly looks more longevity for cold than GFS again.  Without full access to their data, possible split in the Atlantic flow on this chart, whereas GFS wants to send most of the energy over the top and basically sink any thoughts of a block to the NE. However, its jet profile not that particularly strong and not fully zonal as well.

    C

    UKMOPEU12_144_1.png

    Another weird run from GFS. The deep low off SW Iceland at 168t just drifts NW well into West Greenland and leaves a rather slack pressure flow over NW Europe. Sort of no mans land but not COL. Not sure what to make of the run again, looks odd to me or still struggling to deal with the UK/ Scandinavian colder scenario to develop  at the end of this week.

    C

    Edited by carinthian
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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

    UKMO is not far from being very good but it looks doomed to sink not long after, not enough northerly latitude on HP. South East Europe is very mild, there’s the danger - GFS 12z brings a ‘warm’ aloft easterly. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Hampshire
  • Weather Preferences: Mild winters, wet & windy summers
  • Location: Hampshire

    As I mentioned a couple of days ago, the outputs have not shown a true easterly anyway.  I would suggest that the weekend outlook is rather cold, rather dry, then becoming wet and windy from the West by mid next week.  This is, as it stands today, but of course there is the chance of upgrades, but we need to see these soon!

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Wellington, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms/Snow/Hail & Strong Winds
  • Location: Wellington, Somerset
    1 minute ago, Daniel* said:

    UKMO is not far from being very good but it looks doomed to sink not long after, not enough northerly latitude on HP. South East Europe is very mild, there’s the danger - GFS 12z brings a ‘warm’ aloft easterly. 

    I must being seeing different charts? It warms up because the winds are not easterly, they veer around to almost southerly! 

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    3 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

    UKMO is not far from being very good but it looks doomed to sink not long after, not enough northerly latitude on HP. South East Europe is very mild, there’s the danger - GFS 12z brings a ‘warm’ aloft easterly. 

    There's an even worse danger, the GFS 12z is about to bring in a 'warm' at surface and aloft Westerly.

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    Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
    12 minutes ago, BlazeStorm said:

    ECMWF is very interesting. I understand it isn't the go to, but I believe these are early signs. Denies the atlantic entirely, and develops what looks like a merging Scandi and Greenland high?

    Have a feeling a prolonged cold spell could follow after this weekend. Recall seeing the models countlessly deny the intense cold we experiend in 2010/2011, which left rivers and lakes up here in North Yorkshire totally frozen over.

    Some exciting model watching these next few days.

    Screenshot_20180102-161332.png

    Not being picky but I swear the models had the cold pattern in 2010 nailed down weeks before, it's one of the only cold spells I've seen where the models have a very good handle on things at such long range.

    i don't see anything like that severity from this, REALISTICALLY we need perfect sypnotics to get a SEVERE cold spell out of this and not just a cold snap.

    Edited by Weathizard
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    Posted
  • Location: Broadmayne a few miles north of Weymouth in Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Broadmayne a few miles north of Weymouth in Dorset
    Just now, frosty ground said:

    But the Jet is Split on the GFS
    gfs-5-144.png?12

     yes but even in split jet situations its bias is to put more energy into the northern arm thats why it so often backtracks towards other models in Scandi high set ups

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    Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Location: Banbury
    9 minutes ago, Danny* said:

    The GFS doing what it always does and blasting blocking away as if it's not even there, it wont develop like that.

    Whether the energy in the Atlantic goes under the block or not as per GEM/ECM is another matter, but the Atlantic certainly wont push in like the GFS has it, too progressive as usual. 

    Good to see GEM sticking to it's guns, lets hope the ECM does the same this evening. UKMO 12z not bad either, closer to the ECM at 144 than it is to the GFS.

    I agree and the Met update doesn’t suggest that . GEM hasn’t wavered one bit with this ......interesting, be so funny if it trumped them all

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
    3 minutes ago, MattTarrant said:

    I must being seeing different charts? It warms up because the winds are not easterly, they veer around to almost southerly! 

    That’s right but southerly winds for SE Europe drag up warmer air which curve easterly towards us for a time.

    Edited by Daniel*
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    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
    2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    There's an even worse danger, the GFS 12z is about to bring in a 'warm' at surface and aloft Westerly.

    That would follow on from the consensus of the 0z GEFS, Feb

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    Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
    5 minutes ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

     yes but even in split jet situations its bias is to put more energy into the northern arm thats why it so often backtracks towards other models in Scandi high set ups

    No issue with energy in the Northern Arm, its about how that Arm behaves and if you can get it curving around a high,

    i would suggest this high being forcast is too weak for that to happen, and the ECM and GEM will move towards the GFS as the GFS moves towards the ECM.

    Edited by frosty ground
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    Posted
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
    13 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

    The Winds are from the south, hence the warm uppers, Plus the Foehn effect of the Air passing over he Alps. perfectly normal for with the Wind Direction.

    gfs-0-96.png?12 Southerly winds from Africa
    gfs-0-144.png?12 Still from a southerly direction. 

    Perfectly Normal, a;ways has been always will be uless Africa and the Med freeze over,

    And HP & Southerly breeze over Greece for a change, The LP over Spain needs to shift in that direction, ideally over Central/Northern Italy.

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
    3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    There's an even worse danger, the GFS 12z is about to bring in a 'warm' at surface and aloft Westerly.

    Indeed it does brings in a very mild southwesterly from Azores by day 10 I wouldn’t blame those who wrote off the remainder for January if that verified. Good thing there’s so much water to go under the bridge.. 

    B9854E1B-8EF3-4C66-B204-17143256B502.thumb.png.8be3eed87d506a4e7c73ea00862cf28e.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Broadmayne a few miles north of Weymouth in Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Broadmayne a few miles north of Weymouth in Dorset
    Just now, frosty ground said:

    No issue with energy in the Northern Arm, its about how that Arm behaves and if you can get it curving around a high,

    i would suggest this high being forcase is to weak for that to happen, and the ECM and GEM will move towards the GFS as the GFS moves towards the ECM.

    In which case it will come down to which model moves most towards the others experience suggest it will be the gfs which does the most moving.

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    Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20

    Is there any where we can see the output from MOGREPS?  Last I heard the Met Office is a public institution that you and I finance!

    Edited by mulzy
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