Jump to content
Cold?
Local
Radar
Snow?

Model output discussion - into 2018


Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Reigate, Surrey
  • Location: Reigate, Surrey
    Just now, northwestsnow said:

    Yes karlos the 144 was better than i expected :)

    Be interesting to see GEM at 144- i dont think ukmo is anywhere near as good unfortunatley..

    Looks like the initial Easterly won't amount to much in my area at least, but if we get a subsequent split jet with enough energy South, then the eventual follow-up could be a stonker (best guess somewhere around Jan 13th/14th)

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Spotted a post you think may be an issue? Please help the team by reporting it.
    • Replies 5.2k
    • Created
    • Last Reply

    Top Posters In This Topic

    Top Posters In This Topic

    Popular Posts

    An ode to the model output thread... "In days of old, when Thatcher was bold and Kettley was a weatherman, Tales are told of winters cold, and snow lay everywhere, man.   The World Wide Web

    We should rename thread the ‘miserable git’ thread -  So much negativity & misery in here I’m surprised people even make it out of bed. updated 06z JMA joins the euro party to 84

    Find 1 post that I said it would be a convective Easterly - The problem with you ( & many others ) is you read one thing but assume another. The forecast was a blend of the GEM / ECM 

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
    2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    GEM the pick again - a stonker.

    Colder too

    gem-1-198.png?00

    gem-1-192.png?12

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
    1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

    Yes karlos the 144 was better than i expected :)

    Be interesting to see GEM at 144- i dont think ukmo is anywhere near as good unfortunatley..

    Not dissimilar.

    IMG_0280.PNG

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea

    Before anyone looses their minds over the UKMO T144 it should be noted that it is still trying to send energy under and up against the block compared to the GFS which by this point has the block receding into Europe. GFS seems to be the most progressive (massive shocker)

    I would say UKMO is mid-ground solution at this point in time.

    Modele UKMO - Carte prévisions

    gfs-0-144.png?12

    GEM Best case.

    ECM is 2nd bite to a longer lasting spell

    UKMO is perhaps 2nd bite with a larger risk involved than ECM

    GFS has it's sledgehammer equipped and is pounding that block back into Europe.

     

    Edited by SN0WM4N
    • Like 5
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    So glad I didn't make one of my rash 'it's going to snow this weekend' predictions.:D

    h850t850eu.png

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level

    I know 850s are not everything but we are importing some quite high 850s on gfs- cold at the surface and sun tan cream 2000feet up?:)

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Broadmayne a few miles north of Weymouth in Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Broadmayne a few miles north of Weymouth in Dorset

    So the gfs which has known northern arm of jet bias has the high less north than the other models surprise surprise

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20

    GEM is pure NWP porn!! We need the ECM to stick to its guns!

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
    3 minutes ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

    So the gfs which has known northern arm of jet bias has the high less north than the other models surprise surprise

    But the Jet is Split on the GFS
    gfs-5-144.png?12

    Edited by frosty ground
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and heatwave
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
    1 hour ago, Steve Murr said:

    So as the GFS ignites for another run 

    if you looking for more sustained deeper cold then the shortwave @108 going through Scandi needs to come SW not SE

    503C659F-4023-4862-8922-FDF3BA6C6D09.thumb.png.7327c515e69a75fdb1432a95be04d35c.png

    New years resolution Steve ?..Your  phones nearly charged ? Or more runs needed to confirm ?

    Edited by stewfox
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
    3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

    I know 850s are not everything but we are importing some quite high 850s on gfs- cold at the surface and sun tan cream 2000feet up?:)

    It's actually quite remarkable how far N the warm uppers spread into Europe given the time of year. 

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts

    Looking for the GEM to be more accurate than the GFS is like hoping for West Brom to take points off Arsenal.

    Yes it can actually happen but it might need the ECM as a referee! :)

    • Like 3
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
    1 hour ago, Steve Murr said:

    So as the GFS ignites for another run 

    if you looking for more sustained deeper cold then the shortwave @108 going through Scandi needs to come SW not SE

    503C659F-4023-4862-8922-FDF3BA6C6D09.thumb.png.7327c515e69a75fdb1432a95be04d35c.png

    But that's not going to happen as the Jet will simply push it South East, the Jet is not curving back (at least on the GFS)

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
    10 minutes ago, Dancerwithwings said:

    That winning line is along way off yet......Hope your bloody right though :)

    Edit...Don't you mean the GEM because that's the chart you showing ?

    Yes I got my posts a bit mixed up.:doh:

    I was just thinking that if ECM sticks to its guns like the GEM has then its going to be a memorably victory for the models. They will be the champs alright.

    UKMO says no to extending the cold spell, out at T144 though anything can happen of course, the high has not actually sunk yet on that chart.

    UW144-21.gif

    UW144-7.gif

    Edited by snowray
    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl

    It is enough to drive you to drink.....CHEERS Ill have a GEM Mare with tonic

    gem-0-228.png?12

    gem-1-234.png?12

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
    1 minute ago, snowray said:

    Yes I got my posts a bit mixed up.:doh:

    I was just thinking that if ECM sticks to its guns like the GEM has then its going to be a memorably victory for the models. They will be the champs alright.

    UKMO says no to extending the cold spell, out at T144 though anything can happen yet of course, the high has not actually sunk yet on that chart.

    UW144-21.gif

    UW144-7.gif

    Very uncertain what would happen from there.  Can’t see the Atlantic breaking through quickly though...

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
    1 minute ago, warrenb said:

    I just can't make head nor tail of where the GFS is going. It has a high that is basically vertical

    Agree -gfs is of mass confusion...

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
    Just now, frosty ground said:

    Is it? :cc_confused:

    Well yes. We're at the point of peak land mass cooling and at the time where European cold pools can develop in situ. To see virtually the whole of mainland Europe in positive uppers in early January is remarkable to me. 

    Though I guess a lot of us are now seeing things like this as the norm! 

    • Like 3
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough
    11 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

    I know 850s are not everything but we are importing some quite high 850s on gfs- cold at the surface and sun tan cream 2000feet up?:)

    With the gfs giving surface temperatures of 4-7c in the south one would struggle to even call it surface cold. The GFS transfers the high east so quickly the initial NE blast this coming weekend simply grinds to a halt across the Midlands before less cold air pushes in from the sputh east which through this period remains fairly mild.

    Lets hope it is handling the split jet badly and we can get cold air more entrenched across Europe.

    GEM superb as per the last few runs.

    Edited by Captain Shortwave
    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
    3 minutes ago, mulzy said:

    Very uncertain what would happen from there.  Can’t see the Atlantic breaking through quickly though...

    Yes I make you right there. GFS way, way to progressive I'd say, in fact the 12z has been known to be the most progressive of runs but this is taking the proverbial.:laugh:

    gfs-0-174.png

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level

    Hands up of you hate GFS!!

    Image result for HANDS UP GIF

    Sorry mods sometimes you got to inject a little humour when things go...well...............wrong.

    Edited by northwestsnow
    • Like 1
    • Thanks 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Salzburger Sportwelt Lungau/ Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Salzburger Sportwelt Lungau/ Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK

    UKMO run looks fine to me. Certainly looks more longevity for cold than GFS again.  Without full access to their data, possible split in the Atlantic flow on this chart, whereas GFS wants to send most of the energy over the top and basically sink any thoughts of a block to the NE. However, its jet profile not that particularly strong and not fully zonal as well.

    C

    UKMOPEU12_144_1.png

    Link to post
    Share on other sites

    ECMWF is very interesting. I understand it isn't the go to, but I believe these are early signs. Denies the atlantic entirely, and develops what looks like a merging Scandi and Greenland high?

    Have a feeling a prolonged cold spell could follow after this weekend. Recall seeing the models countlessly deny the intense cold we experiend in 2010/2011, which left rivers and lakes up here in North Yorkshire totally frozen over.

    Some exciting model watching these next few days.

    Screenshot_20180102-161332.png

    • Like 5
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Guest
    This topic is now closed to further replies.
    ×
    ×
    • Create New...