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Model output discussion - into 2018


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: Bitter Cold in winter and Extreme heat in summer
  • Location: Leeds

*their

Just jesting. I find your posts great to be honest. Don't let a small number put you off doing what you do. You won't always please everyone. Awaits by the ECM in hope now 

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
8 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Trouble is with the Scandi High is we've been stung so many times by them, probably more than anything phantom heights around the Svalbard/Nordic regions.

After the UKM I remain unconvinced, still the one good thing even on the UKMO is the main lobe of vortex looks like it's on the move to the other side of the hemisphere. No to be negative, just phantom easterlies are all to common.

Looking forward to the ECM, nice to have a little bit of interest for a few days we were going hours without posts good to see everyone again:D

There has been little said about ukmo this evening-

I was hoping Steve or Nick might have had time to comment.

My POV is it looks a bit too similar to this mornings EC with HP across Europe causing issues for the UK low -

GEM looks very nice to me and ends like this-

gemnh-0-240.png?00

EDIT My mistake that was the GEM 00z run.

 

Edited by northwestsnow
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Posted
  • Location: Isle of Man
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Blizzards, Storms, Hot, Foggy - Infact everything
  • Location: Isle of Man

Could we be heading for a classic 80's battleground setup during January. If so then get ready for lots of snow in the coming weeks. The air coming towards us from the east will of course get progressively colder too.  

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
6 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

There has been little said about ukmo this evening-

I was hoping Steve or Nick might have had time to comment.

My POV is it looks a bit too similar to this mornings EC with HP across Europe causing issues for the UK low -

GEM looks very nice to me and ends like this-

gemnh-0-240.png?00

 

The last GEM run was great, if the one coming out now is similar and the ECM is good I might start having some confidence in atleast a cold and poss snowy next weekend - still concerned it will be a one or 2 day event even then though. 

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Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

A couple of off topic posts have been hidden.Best use pm if members wish to discuss posting styles,thanks. 

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
15 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

gemnh-0-186.png?00

GEM.

A very admirable Easterly for the UK on that 12Z GEM chart. The European Low and Icelandic High well positioned to drag cold wintry air Westwards!

Edit: Sorry, just saw mulzy's post above. I should have clicked on that chart to see a bigger view of it to see whether it had been from the 12Z GEM run or not, lol (is from the 00Z GEM run as pointed out by one or two others)

Edited by DiagonalRedLine
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Posted
  • Location: Frome 330ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Most(see in interests section.)
  • Location: Frome 330ft ASL
13 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Trouble is with the Scandi High is we've been stung so many times by them, probably more than anything phantom heights around the Svalbard/Nordic regions.

After the UKM I remain unconvinced, still the one good thing even on the UKMO is the main lobe of vortex looks like it's on the move to the other side of the hemisphere. No to be negative, just phantom easterlies are all to common.

Looking forward to the ECM, nice to have a little bit of interest for a few days we were going hours without posts good to see everyone again:D

Spot on  too many phantoms.

 

i do remember easterlies of the 80s incredible and lots snow with them . 

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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

gfsgwo_1.png

Meanwhile... GLAAM holds up in the face of GEFS yet again, in fact almost reaching phase 4 which would suggest an upward trend trying to get going.

It makes me wonder if we'll - most ironically - end up high and dry for the majority later next week as the phase 2-3 MJO signal undergoes some serious modification on its way out of the tropics. 

Good punch of deep cold looking to drop into Scandinavia around that time as the vortex lets loose a small lobe. If only, eh? :snowman-emoji:

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Posted
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
6 minutes ago, offerman said:

Spot on  too many phantoms.

 

i do remember easterlies of the 80s incredible and lots snow with them . 

Yes we have had way too many phantom easterlies predicted over the years.

However that doesn,t mean that every predicted easterly will be a phantom 

Edited by Broadmayne blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
5 minutes ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

Yes we have had way too many phantom easterlies predicted over years.

Aye. And I can remember quite a few of them, back in the good-old-days of the 1960s and '70s. They are nothing new!:D

Edited by Ed Stone
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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

Interesting trend now is the ne USA low which was going further out to sea is now moving back to the coast there.

This might buy a bit more time downstream to get the low near the UK further se . 

The UKMO is a bit slower than the GFS with the low but is more amplified upstream and leaves less energy behind over sw Greenland.

Edited by nick sussex
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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

Need to view as mentioned, the warming transfer, @russia..

And see how its relayed; in form of momentum..ie- atlantic forcing against the massive block..at russia..and indeed large swath penninsula..

Hope this is basic!!!@?

ECH1-72.GIF

Screenshot_2017-12-30-18-16-47.png

Edited by tight isobar
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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

We need to this..elongation of the polar vortex..

In-order for 'again'  forming of heights too greenland..but in this case ne-at and around scandi....

ECH1-120.gif

Edited by tight isobar
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

The low has cleared East as opposed to SE / SSE as was on the GFS, hence a crap run and poor uppers and no snow.

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

The low has cleared East as opposed to SE / SSE as was on the GFS, hence a crap run and poor uppers and no snow.

?

There were no colder uppers on gfs zt 144..

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
8 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

The low has cleared East as opposed to SE / SSE as was on the GFS, hence a crap run and poor uppers and no snow.

I think those in Scotland of the cold persuasion wouldn't agree re the uppers.  Edit - oops, wrong attachment - corrected

ECH0-168.GIF?30-0

Edited by Ice Day
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

?

There were no colder uppers on gfs zt 144..


The 168 is only going to be a fleeting clip though.

 

1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

We have lift off @168.....

Is that going to sustain for long enough for some snow baring in mind the high is collapsing and the cold uppers are only about to hit?  can see you getting some snow showers but nothing sustained or substantial?

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
47 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

There has been little said about ukmo this evening-

I was hoping Steve or Nick might have had time to comment.

My POV is it looks a bit too similar to this mornings EC with HP across Europe causing issues for the UK low -

GEM looks very nice to me and ends like this-

gemnh-0-240.png?00

EDIT My mistake that was the GEM 00z run.

 

Well I said it was a beauty mate....and it is

 

ECM clears too quickly, that will collapse

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Just now, mulzy said:

I like the ECM - much better than the GFS at day 7

And some v v cold air in Scandy to tap into should that high stick or migrate NE!! 

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