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Model output discussion - into 2018


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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
    26 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

    Can we just agree not to tell a soul :D

    GEM is an absolute peach!! 

    BD51FF06-E911-4933-A00B-4CBD2268B561.thumb.png.69ca006cf30ef652560d8a258092bb17.png

    :air_kiss:

    Happy New Year all btw :hi:

    Indeed mate cracker...

    Full on easterly...

    2701.png

    Edited by tight isobar
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    An ode to the model output thread... "In days of old, when Thatcher was bold and Kettley was a weatherman, Tales are told of winters cold, and snow lay everywhere, man.   The World Wide Web

    We should rename thread the ‘miserable git’ thread -  So much negativity & misery in here I’m surprised people even make it out of bed. updated 06z JMA joins the euro party to 84

    Find 1 post that I said it would be a convective Easterly - The problem with you ( & many others ) is you read one thing but assume another. The forecast was a blend of the GEM / ECM 

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    Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL

    A quick comparison of the GEFS and GEM ENS means at T192:

    GEFS

    gensnh-21-1-192.png

     

    GEM Ens

    gensnh-21-1-192.png

     

    Unsurprising given both the op and control of the GEM. Crucially, the absence of heights over the Balkans allows the cold air to advect westwards. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Linslade, Beds
  • Weather Preferences: Deep cold
  • Location: Linslade, Beds
    4 minutes ago, Yarmy said:

    A quick comparison of the GEFS and GEM ENS means at T192:

    GEFS

    gensnh-21-1-192.png

     

    GEM Ens

    gensnh-21-1-192.png

     

    Unsurprising given both the op and control of the GEM. Crucially, the absence of heights over the Balkans allows the cold air to advect westwards. 

    ECM ens at 360 never take the height anomaly far from our north east. Looking good for maybe a noticeable cold spell. 

    E65CEF86-ED35-45DD-BE84-F381730BBAB5.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Strood, Kent, 19 feet above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Strood, Kent, 19 feet above sea level

    Well.. this mornings ECM has brought me back to the forums, what an absolutely incredible run! Could be colder 850hPa wise but nonetheless, that's one for the history books if it comes off. Good to see continued GEM support too. 

    UKMO looks like a halfway house between the ECM and GFS to me. We need to remember that the ECM seems to have a bias for over-doing blocking whilst the GFS often under does it, so I wouldn't be surprised to see the UKMO more on the money.

    But still, fascinating chart watching yet again.

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    Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)

    Good stuff from 6z gfs and ample cold inflow to uk 

    If we can continue to get heights-a tad higher-further north- we could begin' the tap in to some very fridged scandinavian air...that cold pool is intensified-run 2 run...    then prolongment starts to flag up also!!!

    gfs-1-150.png

    Screenshot_2018-01-02-10-11-45.png

    Screenshot_2018-01-02-10-11-26.png

    Edited by tight isobar
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    Posted
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Sunny crisp frosty days & Thunderstorms
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside

    Heights slightly more northwest :good:

    gfsnh-0-162.thumb.png.5d949998a3c505097505168327321236.pnggfsnh-0-156.thumb.png.bde68f8f490ea576782aa7c19776d464.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
    2 minutes ago, Weather toad said:

    ECM ens at 360 never take the height anomaly far from our north east. Looking good for maybe a noticeable cold spell. 

    E65CEF86-ED35-45DD-BE84-F381730BBAB5.png

    Too east to hold back Altantic that would mean a rather cold PM flow possibly quite wet for most. 

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    Posted
  • Location: East Ham, London
  • Location: East Ham, London

    The key difference between the ECM/GEM and GFS lies further south. The former keep the LP and lower heights around Iberia and southern Europe but the GFS quickly removes them changing the orientation of the HP significantly to a SE/NW shape which brings a modified Atlantic flow back over the British Isles.

    As a tiny step in the right direction, the HP is stronger and the Atlantic weaker so some progress.

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    Posted
  • Location: Linslade, Beds
  • Weather Preferences: Deep cold
  • Location: Linslade, Beds
    3 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

    Too east to hold back Altantic that would mean a rather cold PM flow possibly quite wet for most. 

    But it would obviously be watered down at that range regarding exact position of any high. Ideally, yes it would be great a tad West but the overall trend is good. 

    Remeber, the trend is your friend ??

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    Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl

      gfs-0-204.png?0  00Z

    gfs-0-198.png?6   06Z

    Much better to our N/E

     

     

    Edited by winterof79
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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level

    GFS makes more of the block than the 00z and even though we see a breakdown the jet is being forced into Europe by the residual heights to the NE..

    It may revery to climatology but i think its a positive move from GFS..

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
    6 minutes ago, Weather toad said:

    But it would obviously be watered down at that range regarding exact position of any high. Ideally, yes it would be great a tad West but the overall trend is good. 

    Remeber, the trend is your friend ??

    That is day 15 one thing, that isn’t mild. I don’t think anyone can see a continental flow lingering for that long. Overall I’m enthused by what I’m seeing GFS up to its usual tricks. Always late to the party! 

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    Posted
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT

    GFS 216 is the first GFS run trying to get a bit of energy under the block...

    someone needs to map the GFS 00z 216 & run 8 hour increments back to T0 over the next 27 runs to show it backs the high west

    216 00z 210 06z 204 12z 198 18z & so on...

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    Posted
  • Location: Linslade, Beds
  • Weather Preferences: Deep cold
  • Location: Linslade, Beds
    5 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

    That is day 15 one thing, that isn’t mild. I don’t think anyone can see a continental flow lingering for that long. Overall I’m enthused by what I’m seeing GFS up to its usual tricks. Always late to the party! 

    EC monthly would seem to be pointing to no real Atlantic breakthrough to at least second week of jan. 

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    Posted
  • Location: warwick 74m. asl
  • Weather Preferences: WHITE GOLD
  • Location: warwick 74m. asl
    12 minutes ago, shaky said:

    Big improvement on the 06z run!!12zs could be an absolute corker??!!

    Now that would be too easy:rofl:

    Edited by Fozfoster
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    Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

    Gfs slowly playing catch up again..it’s always struggles with blocking to the NE and better when the weather is Atlantic dominated.Seen  it time and time again wanting to push the Atlantic in too quick.

    if you ignored all gfs output last couple days,there be  no worrying about the cold spell incoming.There a reason the UKMET mostly ignore its output you know.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL

    Here’s hoping we have some ENS that head the ECM way - with the Op being a small improvement you’d hope the ENS would show an improvement 

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level

    GFS is cold zonality in FI with a very cold north westerly towards the end probably burying NW Britain..

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
    1 hour ago, TEITS said:

    You did indeed mate and my apologies. Just been reading through the previous model discussion thread and I apologise.

    Speaking of which what an incredible prediction from someone called Dennis from the Netherlands!

    https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/89032-model-output-discussion-heading-into-2018/?page=25

     

    Based on one gefs run from xmas eve - a stuck clock as they say dave ..........

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