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Model output discussion - into 2018


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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
    8 minutes ago, captaincroc said:

     Good point. I think for me it's been more worrying when the UKMO hasn't been onboard with easterlies in the past, it was then normally shown to be right.  As that is onboard I am more hopeful with the GFS on it's own for something special than if it was the UKMO in it's place.

    Obviously it could all still go t*ts up, hence why I'm not telling friends/family just yet, but it is looking exciting for sure.

    It's not the initial easterly it's what happens after that's in doubt. Does the block hold or sink. Two gfs runs prior to the next ecm, interesting to watch but in truth no one knows.

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    An ode to the model output thread... "In days of old, when Thatcher was bold and Kettley was a weatherman, Tales are told of winters cold, and snow lay everywhere, man.   The World Wide Web

    We should rename thread the ‘miserable git’ thread -  So much negativity & misery in here I’m surprised people even make it out of bed. updated 06z JMA joins the euro party to 84

    Find 1 post that I said it would be a convective Easterly - The problem with you ( & many others ) is you read one thing but assume another. The forecast was a blend of the GEM / ECM 

    Posted Images

    Well after viewing the models this morning I would have to say the trend is not our friend. I mentioned yesterday a fear that what we didn't want to see is a gradual reduction in amplification and unfortunately that is exactly what the models are showing this morning. All three ukmo, ecm and gfs show the high slightly further south than yesterday out to t144. What we want to see is a correction further north again otherwise we may end up by the weekend with a high slap bang over the UK and the cold east/north easterlies winds going south. Post t144 I would be very wary of what the ecm is showing, the model has really been struggling this season so far in relation to our neck of the woods and without support ( yes I am ignoring the gem)then I would be inclined to keep an open mind for now.

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    Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
    4 minutes ago, comet said:

    Well after viewing the models this morning I would have to say the trend is not our friend. I mentioned yesterday a fear that what we didn't want to see is a gradual reduction in amplification and unfortunately that is exactly what the models are showing this morning. All three ukmo, ecm and gfs show the high slightly further south than yesterday out to t144. What we want to see is a correction further north again otherwise we may end up by the weekend with a high slap bang over the UK and the cold east/north easterlies winds going south. Post t144 I would be very wary of what the ecm is showing, the model has really been struggling this season so far in relation to our neck of the woods and without support ( yes I am ignoring the gem)then I would be inclined to keep an open mind for now.

    gfs-0-144.pngYesterdays GFS 0z Run @144
    gfs-0-120.png Todays GFS 0z Run @120

    High is better formed and further North.....

    gfs-0-168.pngYesterdays GFS @168

    gfs-0-144.pngTodays GFS @144

    Again the high is better formed and but around the same postion than yesterdays Run. 

    not sure how to get yesterdays runs up for UKM and ECM but maybe you can show the high sinking as you claim becasue the GFS does not show this?

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Halmer End - 172m/565ft
  • Location: Halmer End - 172m/565ft
    1 minute ago, That ECM said:

    It's not the initial easterly it's what happens after that's in doubt. Does the block hold or sink. Two gfs runs prior to the next ecm, interesting to watch but in truth no one knows.

     Sorry mate, should have explained better. I meant as that the UKMO seems to model easterlies slightly better so am trusting it's evolution on this, which at the moment seems more positive for us coldies.

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    The Ecm 00z in particular turns into a magnificent run for coldies, just hoping we will get cross model suport for a prolonged wintry spell soon!:cold-emoji::)

    Edited by Frosty.
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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    16 minutes ago, comet said:

    Well after viewing the models this morning I would have to say the trend is not our friend. I mentioned yesterday a fear that what we didn't want to see is a gradual reduction in amplification and unfortunately that is exactly what the models are showing this morning. All three ukmo, ecm and gfs show the high slightly further south than yesterday out to t144. What we want to see is a correction further north again otherwise we may end up by the weekend with a high slap bang over the UK and the cold east/north easterlies winds going south. Post t144 I would be very wary of what the ecm is showing, the model has really been struggling this season so far in relation to our neck of the woods and without support ( yes I am ignoring the gem)then I would be inclined to keep an open mind for now.

    What a strange post.

    we need a correction north?

    Have you seen the 850s for the UK sat/sun? I assume you haven't looked..

    Modele UKMO - Carte prévisions

    Modele UKMO - Carte prévisions

    Modele UKMO - Carte prévisions

     

     

    Edited by northwestsnow
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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    4 minutes ago, TEITS said:

    Yet again I am very encouraged.

    First of all the intial E,ly is much colder than originally predicted. A drop for my region from -5C to -9C.

    t850Cambridgeshire.png

    As some of you will know my interest has always been what happens afterwards and since yesterdays 12Z ECM the output shown is what I mentioned a couple of days ago. The GEM has been consistent with this evolution. Still experience tells me to not get excited at the incredible ECM even though what it is showing is text book.

    If the ECM/GEM are correct then it would be an incredible turnaround from some of the dire predictions from the Strat/Teleconnections!

    You really got a bee in your bonnet about the telecommunications department TEITS!!

    TBH i dont really understand this aspect of meteorology - but i do agree with your sentiments regarding the EC/GEM :)

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    Posted
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Sunny crisp frosty days & Thunderstorms
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
    2 hours ago, Weather-history said:

    Past GFS 0z runs for next Monday (8th Jan) starting with the most recent and going back

    gfs-0-162.pnggfs-0-186.pnggfs-0-210.pnggfs-0-234.pnggfs-0-252.pnggfs-0-276.pnggfs-0-300.pnggfs-0-324.pnggfs-0-348.pnggfs-0-372.png

     

    Good post WH and shows we are trending in the right direction. Also I do not think the block will be shunted away as per low res GFS.

    Good charts again this morning, liking the GEM & ECM this morning.

    gfsnh-0-144.thumb.png.f9184850908abccc9d2a57b70cf5b7b3.pngUN144-21.thumb.GIF.b4c4806d3a7b057b0d940f60053657e0.GIFgemnh-0-144.thumb.png.55ef2e0d62706e079a9a7b2f424ec7fc.pngECH1-144.GIF.thumb.png.8a7d356f8a8a8695e1676ed507b2eb59.png

    GEM & ECM further on :good:...

    gemnh-0-204.thumb.png.f4ba289e6e59ad763cc77ec5edcc5475.pngECH1-216.GIF.thumb.png.47533315d3bc51fa9ac67223964d415e.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam
    17 minutes ago, TEITS said:

     

    If the ECM/GEM are correct then it would be an incredible turnaround from some of the dire predictions from the Strat/Teleconnections!

    I remember doing an article a few year back called "where did that easterly come from?" of snapshots of charts of old and how a few days later there was an easterly from what "appears to be out of nowhere " 

    There it is but the links to the charts are broken. I posted that 12 years ago and 10 days later there was a weak easterly after Christmas!

     

    Edited by Weather-history
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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level

    Anyway- 6Z rolling out- an ecm/gem type solution would be appreciated GFS!

    I'm still optimistic of a cold spell- but i'll be the first to admit my confidence will begin to erode if we don't see GFS coming into line, sharpish!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Isle Of Lewis
  • Weather Preferences: Wild!
  • Location: Isle Of Lewis

    Another really cold and wintry spell on the cards for the far north of the UK.. GFS/ECM putting out a 516damline with a -11 850hpa... that is bitterly cold. Snow expected again as it crosses the north sea. 

     

    h850t850eu.png

    Astoundingly bitterly cold winter at times for us. Very unsual. 

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    Posted
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT

    Morning all

    not a lot else to say - ECM @168 will have 0c maxima over the UK possibly lower-

    GEM is probably one of the best runs ever for sustained cold

    lets get The High giving that optimal flow today at 120-144 with no more flirtations with the 0c isotherm from central / SE Europe...

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    3 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

    I remember doing an article a few year back called "where did that easterly come from?" of snapshots of charts of old and how a few days later there was an easterly from what "appears to be out of nowhere " 

    Yes you did, and it was a brilliant read Kevin..

    :)

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    8 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

    What a strange post.

    we need a correction south ?

    Have you seen the 850s for the UK sat/sun? I assume you haven't looked..

    Modele UKMO - Carte prévisions

    Modele UKMO - Carte prévisions

    Modele UKMO - Carte prévisions

     

    Nothing strange about my post at all. I to am impressed by the uppers for the weekend but I am just wary that what we are seeing in the models is a slow erosion of the amplification of the high. I really hope I am wrong here otherwise like I said above the lovely cold upper temps that you have posted will be to the south of the UK by the weekend.

    Many a time we have seen a potent easterly heading for the UK only to see the high ending up over the UK with the very cold air down in southern Europe.

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    Just now, comet said:

    Nothing strange about my post at all. I to am impressed by the uppers for the weekend but I am just wary that what we are seeing in the models is a slow erosion of the amplification of the high. I really hope I am wrong here otherwise like I said above the lovely cold upper temps that you have posted will be to the south of the UK by the weekend.

    Many a time we have seen a potent easterly heading for the UK only to see the high ending up over the UK with the very cold air down in southern Europe.

    Sorry comet, strange post sounded a bit patronising - it wasn't meant to be, i'm just a little confused rather- lets see how it unfolds.. :)

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    Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
    4 minutes ago, comet said:

    Nothing strange about my post at all. I to am impressed by the uppers for the weekend but I am just wary that what we are seeing in the models is a slow erosion of the amplification of the high. I really hope I am wrong here otherwise like I said above the lovely cold upper temps that you have posted will be to the south of the UK by the weekend.

    Many a time we have seen a potent easterly heading for the UK only to see the high ending up over the UK with the very cold air down in southern Europe.

    Can you show this sinking high, i took the time to produce the GFs that does not show what you said it did so can you produce the UKM or ECM? in the time frames you mentioned? 

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    Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
    12 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

    I remember doing an article a few year back called "where did that easterly come from?" of snapshots of charts of old and how a few days later there was an easterly from what "appears to be out of nowhere " 

    Yes they did spring out of nothing here on the 7th Jan 1978 nothing to report

    archives-1978-1-7-0-0.png

    A nudge from the Azores on the 12th and its get your sledge out time.

    archives-1978-1-12-0-0.png

    Sometimes I think we know too much now.

     

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    34 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

    gfs-0-144.pngYesterdays GFS 0z Run @144
    gfs-0-120.png Todays GFS 0z Run @120

    High is better formed and further North.....

    gfs-0-168.pngYesterdays GFS @168

    gfs-0-144.pngTodays GFS @144

    Again the high is better formed and but around the same postion than yesterdays Run. 

    not sure how to get yesterdays runs up for UKM and ECM but maybe you can show the high sinking as you claim becasue the GFS does not show this?

     

    There is an archives selection for both ukmo and ecm charts as well. Granted you are correct regarding the gfs.

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    Posted
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL

    Defo a better run coming on GFS, not sure how much though. High getting further north 

    edit - tiny bit better

    Edited by Ali1977
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    Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
    18 minutes ago, TEITS said:

    You did indeed mate and my apologies. Just been reading through the previous model discussion thread and I apologise.

    Speaking of which what an incredible prediction from someone called Dennis from the Netherlands!

    https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/89032-model-output-discussion-heading-into-2018/?page=25

     

    Yes good stuff from steve murr-and indeed dennis.

    Well on the ball with predict.

    Edited by tight isobar
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