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Model output discussion - into 2018


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An ode to the model output thread... "In days of old, when Thatcher was bold and Kettley was a weatherman, Tales are told of winters cold, and snow lay everywhere, man.   The World Wide Web

We should rename thread the ‘miserable git’ thread -  So much negativity & misery in here I’m surprised people even make it out of bed. updated 06z JMA joins the euro party to 84

Find 1 post that I said it would be a convective Easterly - The problem with you ( & many others ) is you read one thing but assume another. The forecast was a blend of the GEM / ECM 

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Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level

    GEM/EC would have the place ROCKING!!!

    UKMO i THINK its better than the 12z yesterday but its not quite as good as the above 2,knife edge stuff coming at 168-

    GFS- Keep taking the happy pills you miserable sod!!

    We're in the game while EC shows these kind of synoptics!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.

    Considering I said this back on the 29th December, I'm happy with how things have panned out, albeit if my thoughts do transpire to that currently forecast which is some blocky HP influence post this unsettled rather stormy period we're currently enduring. The difference by the middle of January will likely be weather fronts attempting to push in from the Atlantic bringing the potential for snow to many locations as they try to push their way through against the cold air in-situ.

     

    "By about D10 I anticipate the Atlantic ridging to have a greater effect on our shores eventually bringing some drier weather around before a change to something different once again my the middle of January."

     

    A side note, a real novice-y question, but I assume the ECM 0z operational outputs actually refer to the forecast conditions at that hour, ie. the forecast conditions at midnight our time each set of runs, so, therefore, project overnight 850s and the like. Begs the question, do all other charts do the same and also when referencing such charts, we all need to be mindful of this? As I said, I guess I've answered my own doubts here but it, therefore, proves the only way of seeing the model's progression through time is by comparing like with like. 0x with 0z 850s, 12z with 12z etc.

    Edited by gottolovethisweather
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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level

    EC snow depth charts (although they will not pick up convective snow showers) shows Scotland in particular buried in the white stuff by day 10!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
    1 hour ago, Weather-history said:

    192hrs ECM

    ECMOPUK00_192_2.png

    This chart, for instance, is one which I'd pull out as an example of what I'm rambling about in my post above. These show overnight 850s rather than daytime, hence they would be much colder at midnight, than midday, given clear skies and other appropriate conditions.

    Edited by gottolovethisweather
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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level

    Another EC v GFS standoff-

    Really need EC to have the correct handle here- 

    Its a bit concerning that the GEFS sute is, almost exclusively showing nothing like ECM. In fact,the GEFS suite is not great at all.

    C'mon EC, we are all cheering you on from the sidelines while GFS gets heckled and booed at every touch of the ball!!

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
    2 minutes ago, gottolovethisweather said:

    This chart, for instance, is one which I'd pull out as an example of what I'm rambling about in my post above. These show overnight 850s rather than daytime, hence they would be much colder then given clear skies and other appropriate conditions.

    850s are not really impacted by diurnal temperature changes over a short period of time.

    I would like to see more widespread -10c 850s though. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
    7 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

    EC snow depth charts (although they will not pick up convective snow showers) shows Scotland in particular buried in the white stuff by day 10!!

    Wonder why the snow depth and accumulated snow charts are so far apart 

    3eae39db-8f15-403c-a017-4b1a28ab0888.thumb.png.1b0f709a41cfa3967097435b0384cf1a.pngc371b57c-dd25-4caf-b79e-2233258c3546.thumb.png.5c3d250d520d2da1d916bed96530a769.png

    Anyone know?

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    Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
    Just now, Radiating Dendrite said:

    850s are not really impacted by diurnal temperature changes over a short period of time.

    I would like to see more widespread -10c 850s though. 

    Thanks, that clears that up. I do feel in some circumstances these charts could be misinterpreted as being more extreme than the reality, kind of why I stick with the daily runs and generally ignore them aside from looking at the global picture. Thanks again, @Radiating Dendrite.

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    Posted
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL

    ECM mean is good throughout but no where near as good as the Op - someone who has access to clusters may know more. I think there were 9 ens members following last nights good ECM according to an Ian F tweet 

    Edited by Ali1977
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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE

    I would add a note of caution looking at the ECM ensembles the op is one of the colder solutions later on and again checking the ensembles for northern Italy still quite a few show higher pressure than the op.

    This means the orientation of the Scandi high isn't set yet.

    For newbies if theres one area to keep an eye on in the expected set up its northern Italy, lower pressure there supports any blocking to the north/ne over Scandi, higher pressure would mean the high to the north isn't as favourably orientated.

    Although the ops are generally better at handling this set up you'd still want to see a bigger ensemble cluster supporting lower pressure in the aforementioned area.

    Edited by nick sussex
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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level

    Anyway, to matters closer to the reliable, how about this at 96 -ukmo

    Modele UKMO - Carte prévisions

    Modele UKMO - Carte prévisions

    Surely this would be showers turning to snow across the UK by Friday night?

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    Posted
  • Location: Thorpe Surrey (About 1 mile from Thorpe park)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, more snow and even more snow..Oh and I love a good old Thunderstorm
  • Location: Thorpe Surrey (About 1 mile from Thorpe park)

    Until the GFS (if it does) comes round and smells the coffee I'm taking real caution. 

    I think it was 2016 or 2015 the GFS picked out a brilliant easterly or Northly can't quite remember only for the ecm to go against it. Turns out the ecm was correct and the GFS came round later on. 

    I'm not saying that will happen now, and yes the GFS does bring cold in but not to the severity of the ecm but there is absolutely nothing stopping things going the wrong way this is the UK. 

    But I hope I really hope the GFS comes out a loser wouldn't be the first.. But a back track from the ecm wouldn't be either...

    Lets all do a little snow dance... 

     

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    Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
    13 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

    EC mean solid at 144!!

    :cold:

    That ecm mean up to 168 hours is seriously backin the op run!!was expecting it to be slightly worse!!dunno why but i feel its gona be a middle ground or gfs is right here!!happens every frikkin time!!!

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    2 minutes ago, shaky said:

    That ecm mean up to 168 hours is seriously backin the op run!!was expecting it to be slightly worse!!dunno why but i feel its gona be a middle ground or gfs is right here!!happens every frikkin time!!!

    The mean is solid out to 144 mate !!!

    But i need to see GFS showing something better , very very soon, like the 6z even..

    Im looking at the ukmo 96 and thinking heavy snow showers moving in, just following the isobars and the air is coming from a COLD source!! (plus a warm north sea)!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
  • Weather Preferences: the weather extremes in general but my favourites are snow & thunderstorms
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl

    We all may say let’s not get to carried away how many times it’s all gone Pete tong etc etc, but this winter is certainly a lot different to our normal s##t winters. Don’t you agree? Anything like the ecm and we would certainly be leaving the heating on all day and night ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Penrith Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snowy winters and warm sunny summers
  • Location: Penrith Cumbria
    29 minutes ago, gottolovethisweather said:

    This chart, for instance, is one which I'd pull out as an example of what I'm rambling about in my post above. These show overnight 850s rather than daytime, hence they would be much colder then given clear skies and other appropriate conditions.

    Eh no, at that altitude there is little difference between day and night time temperatures, especially in a easterly set up,one or two degrees at the most.

    Andy

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    Posted
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
    25 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

    I would add a note of caution looking at the ECM ensembles the op is one of the colder solutions later on and again checking the ensembles for northern Italy still quite a few show higher pressure than the op.

    This means the orientation of the Scandi high isn't set yet.

    For newbies if theres one area to keep an eye on in the expected set up its northern Italy, lower pressure there supports any blocking to the north/ne over Scandi, higher pressure would mean the high to the north isn't as favourably orientated.

    Although the ops are generally better at handling this set up you'd still want to see a bigger ensemble cluster supporting lower pressure in the aforementioned area.

    What I notice is the big divergence in wind direction (windrichting) between operational and control after day 8, so hopefully it's a problem with the resolution of the members 

    Screenshot_20180102-092951.png

    Edited by ArHu3
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    11 hours ago, ShortWaveHell said:

    I’m sensing after today’s developments BringBack1962-63 is constructing a monsterous post ( I hope )

    LOL. It's back to running my business from now on, so I'll have much less time to post - they'll be less frequent and (probably) less long, much to some members' relief! Very craftily, you have drawn me into writing this post!

    I'll stick my neck out very briefly (without posting charts or referring to the detailed evidence to support me). My current take is that it'll be good news, then bad news followed by very good news for coldies. The easterly (of sorts) "may" deliver a few cold or very cold days and unpredictable (at this range) amounts of snow. Then a battleground scenario with the Atlantic fighting back and possibly quite a snowy breakdown. Then back to a rather flatter pattern and an unsettled regime (perhaps anything from 5 to 10 days or so) with a mixture of milder and colder days with some Polar Maritime air in the mix at times. Then, I see the change to a generally colder regime evolving later this month and in place towards the end of January (perhaps a little sooner) and continuing well into February. The background signals (yes, back to those) "had" been conflicting and rather uncertain but in reality hardly changed with just a short blip or delay in the likely broader pattern changes (always timing issues with these). There is now much stronger evidence that will shall see greater harmony going forward. The AAM temporarily weakening and then strengthening; the unusual Nina ENSO state (initially supporting the front-loaded winter which we had to some extent, then taking on the east-based Pacific position (which may well assist with the Pacific profile and impact on downstream patterns and interfering with the jet stream and favouring ridges and blocks to set up); the strat temps (where we did have some slight early winter warmings) temporarily falling and now forecast to rise again and the strat PV eventually downwelling and impacting on the already thoroughly disrupted tropospheric PV (please refer to @chionomaniac's,strat thread update 2 days ago on this with perhaps an SSW as we enter February but I feel that this "may" not be necessary this time) the MJO at last coming to life and set to move into it's key phases of 7,8 & 1 (probably at decent amplitude this time, assisting with HLB patterns) towards the end of January (see @nick sussex's comments including the NOAA report as well as several other well respected posters on this); the jet stream and PV will be passed their usual seasonal peaks by then anyway. I have simplified all of this and parts may not be completely accurate but there is plenty going on behind the scenes that drives the model output. So, nothing set in stone but far more in the offing for coldies than we've seen since at least 2013. I fully expect the models to struggle initially with picking up all these changes - in the length and potency of this weekend's (and into next week) cold spell; the timing and nature of the breakdown during next week; the length and nature of the intervening less cold/milder interlude; sniffing out the signal for the change to the cold regime. I imagine that this post will provoke some very mixed reaction. I'll address that when I next produce a longer post. Meanwhile enjoy this very exciting period of model watching.

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    Posted
  • Location: Halmer End - 172m/565ft
  • Location: Halmer End - 172m/565ft
    26 minutes ago, Surrey said:

    Until the GFS (if it does) comes round and smells the coffee I'm taking real caution. 

    I think it was 2016 or 2015 the GFS picked out a brilliant easterly or Northly can't quite remember only for the ecm to go against it. Turns out the ecm was correct and the GFS came round later on. 

    I'm not saying that will happen now, and yes the GFS does bring cold in but not to the severity of the ecm but there is absolutely nothing stopping things going the wrong way this is the UK. 

    But I hope I really hope the GFS comes out a loser wouldn't be the first.. But a back track from the ecm wouldn't be either...

    Lets all do a little snow dance... 

     

     Good point. I think for me it's been more worrying when the UKMO hasn't been onboard with easterlies in the past, it was then normally shown to be right.  As that is onboard I am more hopeful with the GFS on it's own for something special than if it was the UKMO in it's place.

    Obviously it could all still go t*ts up, hence why I'm not telling friends/family just yet, but it is looking exciting for sure.

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