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Model output discussion - into 2018


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An ode to the model output thread... "In days of old, when Thatcher was bold and Kettley was a weatherman, Tales are told of winters cold, and snow lay everywhere, man.   The World Wide Web

We should rename thread the ‘miserable git’ thread -  So much negativity & misery in here I’m surprised people even make it out of bed. updated 06z JMA joins the euro party to 84

Find 1 post that I said it would be a convective Easterly - The problem with you ( & many others ) is you read one thing but assume another. The forecast was a blend of the GEM / ECM 

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1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

ECM ensembles don't look too bas but its all going wrong in the ext period on the GEFS.

Ens support, will only go one way atm/wrong.!!!

As ops-diverege and crank the signal-as mobility(even in weak tranfer) is of critical, mess' ..

Large lobeing of canadian/alaskan transfer will be of the tightest origin.

This is point doctoring, of showmanship' of the models.

On the cusp, of such crucial, northern hemispherical transfer- evolving into a state of static shock...then mass confuse/divergance will be modeled.

'However' its like rolling a non rounded (perfectly) stone up a hill...it will either run and gain momentumn..or collapse and hit you in the face..

Our stone is becoming nice an spherical!!?

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I'm nailing my colours to the mast - definite quite potent but short lived cold spell followed by the Atlantic blasting through (possible battleground snow event although no evidence yet), then looking into deep FI strat charts and Met Office 30 dayer while taking whatever sliders / PM happen to come along in the meantime.

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Even if its a short cold spell there will likely be snow around for many of us. It may last longer though and I certainly would prefer the ECM over the pub run on New Years day, probably been on the booze since last night!:laugh:

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The upcoming decline in polar evaporation is a clear development for me. In the half of the arctic, only a few days later we have only troposphere reaction, and we need to look around 9/10 days to stop half of it. This is part of the GFS ensembles. The second stage of the cold can be NEs. The ensemble also provides a deeper support for Europe's rising hpa, as well as a low pressure on the Atlantic. The ECM is not for me.

Edited by RAIN RAIN RAIN
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9 minutes ago, RAIN RAIN RAIN said:

The upcoming decline in polar evaporation is a clear development for me. In the half of the arctic, only a few days later we have only troposphere reaction, and we need to look around 9/10 days to stop half of it. This is part of the GFS ensembles. The second stage of the cold can be NEs. The ensemble also provides a deeper support for Europe's resettlement, as well as a low pressure on the Atlantic. The ECM is not for me.

Where is Europe resettling to? You've lost me. I know we voted Brexit but I don't think the rest of Europe hates us that much.

On to the models- we're at the same place we were last night really with regards to seeing where we go post initial dig of colder uppers next weekend. We can only hope that the GFS and UKMO follow the ECM lead. We'll know by about 3.50am which way the 0z GFS is heading!

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28 minutes ago, RAIN RAIN RAIN said:

The upcoming decline in polar evaporation is a clear development for me. In the half of the arctic, only a few days later we have only troposphere reaction, and we need to look around 9/10 days to stop half of it. This is part of the GFS ensembles. The second stage of the cold can be NEs. The ensemble also provides a deeper support for Europe's rising hpa, as well as a low pressure on the Atlantic. The ECM is not for me.

Polar evaporation? I’ve heard it all now. GEFS are somehow superior and best guidance to use? Well atm we’re looking at day four for the initiation of the cold spell, no need to look at x, y and z for now. ‘To stop half of it’ not sure what that even means just looking at ECM 12Z and I don’t want anything to stop! It is just one sustained cold spell, with no real let up in sight. I don’t see GFS ensembles signalling a Euro high in the extended I’ve seen a lot worse. ECM doesn’t care - what you think, nor any of our opinions ECM is king whether you like it or not. :p 

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GFS and UKMO at 144, high further north and west on UKMO (notice Iceland in view) so definitely the better of the two, and with the PV in a more vertical/straight orientation coming in which makes you think the HP is holding it off some what - the 168 later on shall tell us the answer. 

Hopefully the ECM follows that belter from last night.

C546DBAB-C3DA-4F89-89AB-8A6019A90358.png

3B3272D4-C60D-4BF0-AA89-9F5BD2A5B3A1.png

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8 minutes ago, Banbury said:

Control is better than the Op it has to be Said ( GFS )

Yep , no GEM like solutions in the ENS but I’d say the Op is the most progressive so imagine it’s a warm outlier within the suite.

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11 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Yep , no GEM like solutions in the ENS but I’d say the Op is the most progressive so imagine it’s a warm outlier within the suite.

The GFS pressure anomaly mean in FI is starting to look increasingly familiar (think the EC weekly means posted last week for week 3).

gensnh-21-5-336.png

Some really hideous ensemble members in the 0z suite for week 2.

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1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

The GFS pressure anomaly mean in FI is starting to look increasingly familiar (think the EC weekly means posted last week for week 3).

gensnh-21-5-336.png

Some really hideous ensemble members in the 0z suite for week 2.

Yeah going off the GFS/ENS we would maybe be able to cling onto a continental type flow till maybe Wednesday - which would still be 5/6 days of cold .  However with the UKMO/GEM sand last nights ECM I wouldn’t like to call it.  Interesting ECM coming up.  METO update still saying unsure of breakdown timing but no real indication of something prolonged (yet?)

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6 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Yeah going off the GFS/ENS we would maybe be able to cling onto a continental type flow till maybe Wednesday - which would still be 5/6 days of cold .  However with the UKMO/GEM sand last nights ECM I wouldn’t like to call it.  Interesting ECM coming up.  METO update still saying unsure of breakdown timing but no real indication of something prolonged (yet?)

Obviously the GEFS are known to be quite errant in their assessments at times but given what we saw being churned out by the EC weekly last week (new run out tonight?), it lends more credence to what they are showing as there is good broad agreement. 

If we are to see the Canadian vortex once again become the dominant driver (past the weekend chapter) we would hope to see the jet ride far enough south so that we can mostly reside on the polar side. That would give the possibility of some decent PM incursions. Sadly this is not what I'm seeing in the 0z suite. A great number of runs are flat and WSWly. Dank and mild.

gensnh-2-1-312.png

gensnh-6-1-288.png

gensnh-8-1-288.png

gensnh-8-1-276.png

gensnh-13-1-384.png

etc etc

Though there are a few colder ones in there too, with the jet further S.

Edited by CreweCold
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8 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

The GFS pressure anomaly mean in FI is starting to look increasingly familiar (think the EC weekly means posted last week for week 3).

gensnh-21-5-336.png

Some really hideous ensemble members in the 0z suite for week 2.

Note the higher pressure anomaly on along eastern seaboard of USA? That says to me polar maritime > tropical maritime.

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ECM could be following the GEM here, block in a better position at 120 than GFS

036FB68C-DC5E-42F2-93B6-7E23DD8356E6.png

Edit - not quite GEM at 144 but a little better than the GFS with -6/8 uppers still coming in from the east 

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Awesome - still holding on at 168 with mainly -8c uppers and I imagine snow showers and severe frosts about.

should be a happy forum this morning, only GFS not playing ball. 

3747E801-C202-4819-A545-FD8D02C789DF.png

BOOM 192 - HP building into a pretty strong block and PV not getting through

PV being forced to split south and north and now -10c uppers coming in. 

 

 

E4D7AEFB-36AD-48F7-A7A7-FF2DEFE701A9.png

Edited by Ali1977
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If correct this would now be a severe and lengthy cold spell - memorable styleeeee 

5399C368-07B2-4E76-A377-BB7DDB93DEAE.png

Ive posted too many pictures, but check 240 out - Huge high heading to Greenland and joining the Scandy one . 

Id be surprised if this isn’t out on its own as it’s a pretty severe set up hemespherically speaking although not severe 850s yet - and Defo not on the METO long range

Edited by Ali1977
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19 hours ago, Purga said:

Apologies SS - 'cache' prob :D

Current (better) suite below

image.thumb.png.d99ca08b62283abf3119f76944539428.png

:)

 

Can't help feeling passionate about the weather with charts like these ..

image.jpg

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