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Model output discussion - into 2018


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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    Sod that...It collapsed even faster than a Tottenham Hotspur title challenge!:wallbash::D

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    An ode to the model output thread... "In days of old, when Thatcher was bold and Kettley was a weatherman, Tales are told of winters cold, and snow lay everywhere, man.   The World Wide Web

    We should rename thread the ‘miserable git’ thread -  So much negativity & misery in here I’m surprised people even make it out of bed. updated 06z JMA joins the euro party to 84

    Find 1 post that I said it would be a convective Easterly - The problem with you ( & many others ) is you read one thing but assume another. The forecast was a blend of the GEM / ECM 

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 would be nice :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 would be nice :-)
    18 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

    Well not necessarily. There will be a window of opportunity, even if the initial pressure build does sink slightly, whereby the block realigns so that WAA is sent N again and a restrengthened block emerges. If this happens too far east however, it will be of no use to us- so we need to see the block not sink too far SE.

    Looks like that's happening....Just one 18Z run though.

    gfs-0-192_emi5.png

    Edited by Dancerwithwings
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    Posted
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
    4 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

    It's the second phase that potentially could lead to bigger and better things Steve. The opening ceremony, if you like, will be a brief blink and you'll miss it affair spanning a couple of days. 

    If it goes the way of ECM then greatness awaits further on into the month.

    It could happen

     it’s the 18z & any great chart that’s verified has never been correct from the 18z &144-168.

    just remember how bad the ECM was just a couple of days ago when I called it awfully progressive -

    I think it’s pretty nailed ( stage 1 ) stage 2 is finely balanced —

    S

    Edited by Steve Murr
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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
    3 minutes ago, abbie123 said:

    I did mention this earlier that gfs could go that way short snap but we are still 5 days out so still changes to come hopefully with gfs..

    Not sure if bbc think same as GFS 18Z? SS posted it in winter thread, did mention snow for a while, but got the impression Atlantic breaking through was possible

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    1 hour ago, nick sussex said:

    NOAA have now updated their MJO forecast:

     The enhanced convective phase of the MJO has crossed Africa and reached the Indian Ocean in the course of the last week.


     Dynamical models build the amplitude of the MJO signal across the western Indian Ocean during Week-1, and bring a robust event into the eastern Indian Ocean for Week-2.


     Based on dynamical and statistical model guidance, the suppressed portion of the MJO is likely to initially destructively interfere with enhanced convection over the Maritime Continent, before shifting further eastward and constructively interfering with suppressed convection near the Date Line tied to La Niña in Week-2.


     An active MJO over the Indian Ocean during boreal winter is generally one of the more coherent scenarios for yielding a teleconnection response in the Northern Hemisphere. Typical lagged extratropical circulation responses favor enhancement and extension of the jet across the North Pacific in addition to building troughing (ridging) over western (eastern) North America.

    That down stream is close to what the NWP is showing  perhaps  a touch further west with the pattern and you can see that from the composite for MJO phase 2 :

    JanuaryPhase2All500mb.thumb.gif.313962e92b2d2da322ca6550c75d8985.gif

     

    Higher pressure to the east/ne of the UK lower pressure to the west which would be the troughing which the ECM disrupts but the GFS is less interested in doing so.

    In terms of tonights ECM ensembles looking at the pressure ones for Northern Italy theres still quite a large spread there, that's something to keep an eye on. The ensembles do show some with higher pressure than the op and that's towards the lower end.

    Northern Italy is a key marker for cold into the UK as lower pressure there indicates better support for any blocking to the north.

    So for the moment the actual orientation of any high over Scandi towards days  7 to 10 is more uncertain.

     

     

     


     

    That composite would take one heck of a stretch of imagination to say that it is similar to what is being show by the NWP models. You could make a case for numerous different outcomes of weather for the UK from that I afraid.

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    Posted
  • Location: South Essex
  • Location: South Essex

    Not saying its right, but its perfectly logical. The obvious response to a lump of PV sitting to our NW is a pressure rise over SE Europe.

    Looking at previous GEFS suites this scenario has had support. Will be an interesting GEFS suite shortly.

     

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire

    The spoiler mini Icelandic low that spawns out of nowhere at T114 is a real problem. The ukmo was first to show it on the 12z run tonight which is why the run wasn't as good going forward. The ecm was having nothing to do with this low which is why the run was decent going forward. Unfortunately the gfs 18z run agrees with the ukmo and shows the mini low and so does the updated 120hr fax chart. Not a good development imo. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)

    We need a closed hp to our NE otherwise we will draw in WAA into Europe,but longer term this might be better going forward,we will have a much colder weekend coming up but will we tap into some ppn(snow) coming from the E/NE with it

    the trouble with the low heading south at 96 just get phased out with the heights over southern Europe,we need this to head further SE instead of south,boy arn't we picky

    the more SE,the more we will see propping height's to the north and the more we eject cold from the east.

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    Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing rain heat waves
  • Location: Orpington Kent

    Don't like say I loved see a long lasting cold spell but Atlantic  looking  to progressive here is the gfs 12z / 18z still can  all change for the better..:)

    IMG_0306.PNG

    IMG_0307.PNG

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    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
    15 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

    The spoiler mini Icelandic low that spawns out of nowhere at T114 is a real problem. The ukmo was first to show it on the 12z run tonight which is why the run wasn't as good going forward. The ecm was having nothing to do with this low which is why the run was decent going forward. Unfortunately the gfs 18z run agrees with the ukmo and shows the mini low and so does the updated 120hr fax chart. Not a good development imo. 

    The low is just a symptom of more power in the N arm of the jet- the low is an offshoot of the vortex lobe spilling out of the Canadian sector.

    As I was saying last night, bifurcated jet scenarios are a nightmare as you need a perfect balance between N and S arm of the jet. Usually we see too much going N and that is what the GFS shows this evening.

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level

    Excellent GFS18Z with plenty of PM incursions again in FI courtesy of a strong Arctic high pushing south..

    The trends are fabulous today- even after any potential breakdown the models are hinting strongly at cold zonality soonafter..

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    Just now, CreweCold said:

    The low is just a symptom of more power in the N arm of the jet- the low is an offshoot of the vortex lobe spilling out of the Canadian sector.

    As I was saying last night, bifurcated jet scenarios are a nightmare as you need a perfect balance between N and S arm of the jet. Usually we see too much going N and that is what the GFS shows this evening.

    Briefly Crewe-

    18Z is showing plenty of Polar maritime air as we move through January- any mild is quite short lived..

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    I think I'll ignore that, after next weekend; I don't like it. To think that I stopped watching a horror show so as I could watch that...? That'll teach me!:shok:

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    56 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

    Icelandic spoiler alert. Here's the GFS/ECM comparison

    IMG_8737.GIF

    IMG_8738.PNG

    ECM very close to forming a closed low / shortwave  at 12z - maybe if it had developed it into a shortwave, ECM may have followed similar course as GFS.  ECM goes on to form a closed low / shortwave at 240 which may have implications for sustainability / longetivity  going foward thereafter , but that is a long long way into the future

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    Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl

    if.... the 18z came to fruition, it wouldn't be too bad...

    prectypeuktopo-2.thumb.png.0e6625f7700066be539e2ed618fa3357.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Locksbottom,kent 92m asl(310ft)
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers but not too hot and colder winters with frost and snow
  • Location: Locksbottom,kent 92m asl(310ft)

    It is always the way since i have been following this forum over last 6 years when a potential cold spell is forecast-I dont think i remember the GFS,ECM & UKMO agree at t+144 out. If UKMO is not on board then i am wary of ECM or GFS but it is strange how the GFS 18z seem to be very different to GFS 12z  over last couple days.It is fascinating watch it pan out and leave to other far more knowledgeable members to show through greater PC skills than me.A few things that i would like to see for a cold spell rather than snap to occur is Low pressure over Italy(Genoa Low) and Scandi High to link up to maybe an Icelandic Heights-The Great Nick Sussex taught me that and love his Commentary in the search for Cold spells-Everyone keep up the good work:good:

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    Posted
  • Location: Barrhead, East Renfrewshire
  • Weather Preferences: Severe gales, thunderstorms, snow
  • Location: Barrhead, East Renfrewshire

    Potential for heavy snow for central and southern Scotland on Thursday evening into Friday according to the 18z

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    Cold zonality can be a lot of fun as these Gfs 18z charts show:cold-emoji::D

    18_324_preciptype.png

    18_324_mslp500.png

    18_324_ukthickness850.png

    18_324_ukthickness.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

    We may well have to make do with a short cold easterly type of snap.We still have some time before we can write off an extension to this developing set up but the key time is getting closer -around day 8 where the next low off the Canadian vortex approaches from the nw.

    The 18Z gfs is pretty much aligned to the ext eps which are also are showing the Atlantic eventually winning through after a little skirmish to our west.

    A look at the ECM mean at day 10

    ecmwf-ens_z500a_nhem_11.png

    It looks like the high sinks se although a sceuro ridge is still evident by day 15 on the Icelandic clusters

    ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018010112_360.

    We could well revert to our old nw flow with the Icelandic trough squeezed se between the +ve anomalies so quite possibly still a wintry outlook.

    Edited by phil nw.
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    Posted
  • Location: South Essex
  • Location: South Essex

    Looking through the GEFS out to 216 and its fair to say that the opp has a fair amount of support. The control goes a similar way.

    That said, I wouldn't say that this is a bad suite overall. There is enough interest still present that something better could arrive a bit further down the line. ECM looks like the best route if everything falls right, GFS is possibly worst case scenario so we probably end up with a blend as usual. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Location: Banbury
    2 minutes ago, Jason M said:

    Looking through the GEFS out to 216 and its fair to say that the opp has a fair amount of support. The control goes a similar way.

    That said, I wouldn't say that this is a bad suite overall. There is enough interest still present that something better could arrive a bit further down the line. ECM looks like the best route if everything falls right, GFS is possibly worst case scenario so we probably end up with a blend as usual. 

    The control doesn't it rebuilds the HP after 240 -300hrs 

    Edited by Banbury
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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

    ECM ensembles don't look too bas but its all going wrong in the ext period on the GEFS.

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    Posted
  • Location: South Essex
  • Location: South Essex
    Just now, Banbury said:

    The control doesn't it rebuilds the HP

    True, but well into FI and as more of a mid lat feature to our east rather than a HLB.

    I just can't get onboard with this cold spell. Sure, it will be cold for a few days but nothing out of the ordinary.  Hopefully my cynicism will be proved wrong in the morning :D

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