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Model output discussion - into 2018


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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 would be nice :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 would be nice :-)
    8 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

    ECM finishes with a long fetch straight Easterly into the UK -temps around 0c...

    Could draw in some very cold air from Russia eventually.

    ECM101-240_izt9.GIF

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    An ode to the model output thread... "In days of old, when Thatcher was bold and Kettley was a weatherman, Tales are told of winters cold, and snow lay everywhere, man.   The World Wide Web

    We should rename thread the ‘miserable git’ thread -  So much negativity & misery in here I’m surprised people even make it out of bed. updated 06z JMA joins the euro party to 84

    Find 1 post that I said it would be a convective Easterly - The problem with you ( & many others ) is you read one thing but assume another. The forecast was a blend of the GEM / ECM 

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    Seriously, after a run like that there is only one thing left to do..holy cow, quick, to the ensembles robin!!:cold-emoji::D:drinks::reindeer-emoji:???

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    Edited by Frosty.
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    Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

    Seemingly the counter-Nina tendencies are making themselves known in the model output for later next week. 

    One has to be realistic though; the main easterly is still about a week out and it'd only take a relatively small adjustment back toward more of a GLAAM dive to make a mess of things. 

    It has undeniably been a good turn of the year for trends though :santa-emoji:.

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level

    Well the EC snow charts are a bit ridiculous with little or no lying snow south of Birmingham!!

    Pennines and Scotland the big winners- strangely little lying snow east of the pennines.

    I think thats rubbish personally with -8 uppers..

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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
    Just now, northwestsnow said:

    Well the EC snow charts are a bit ridiculous with little or no lying snow south of Birmingham!!

    Pennines and Scotland the big winners- strangely little lying snow east of the pennines.

    I think thats rubbish personally with -8 uppers..

    Way off! SE especially south east of London are best placed off this EC 12Z

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    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
    15 minutes ago, abbie123 said:

    ECM looking fantastic for uk very cold and snow.  south east England looks to me it could get burried .:D

     

     

    IMG_0283.JPG

    Just to add a bit of realism to the thread. 12z ECM has less than 1cm of snow for most away from Scotland and the North East. I wonder if this output takes into a account shower activity spreading in from the North Sea though? 

    I much prefer GEM as the slider delivers for most around day 9-10 where as ECM has it going into Northern France. Still lots of time for changes though 

     

    E8BD1B97-21BD-4724-B937-DB6400086255.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Broadmayne a few miles north of Weymouth in Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Broadmayne a few miles north of Weymouth in Dorset

    Fantastic Ecm tonight. Of course it won't look like that come the time.........................................because it will have upgraded even more. lol:D:cold::cold::cold:

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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
    13 minutes ago, Singularity said:

    Seemingly the counter-Nina tendencies are making themselves known in the model output for later next week.

    One has to be realistic though; the main easterly is still about a week out and it'd only take a relatively small adjustment back toward more of a GLAAM dive to make a mess of things.

    It has undeniably been a good turn of the year for trends though :santa-emoji:.

    NOAA seem to think the MJO will dampen down the normal atmospheric response to La Nina and think once it reaches the Indian Ocean it will have an impact on the pattern over the USA.

    The phase 2 composites do look a reasonable match for the current NWP. I suppose its really what happens to the upstream troughing in terms of how much trough disruption we see.

    PS that's off the last update I'm still waiting for the new one which is normally out on Mondays but not sure if it will come out seeing as its New Years Day.

     

    Edited by nick sussex
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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    I just want us to fast forward through the wet and windy cr*p and get to next weekend already!!:D:cold-emoji:..hope the upgrades continue, the Ecm 12z turns into lovely stuff.

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    Posted
  • Location: Emsworth, Hampshire
  • Location: Emsworth, Hampshire
    1 minute ago, nytram43 said:

    It's a balmy 1 deg C in Moscow at the moment and no sign of getting colder for the next five days.

    Any supporting charts for this?

    Landmasses can freeze over in the matter of hours/days. So I wouldn't worry about one area being too warm right now.

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    Posted
  • Location: Medlock Valley, Oldham, 103m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and/or snow in Winter and Thunderstorms any time of the year.
  • Location: Medlock Valley, Oldham, 103m asl
    4 minutes ago, nytram43 said:

    It's a balmy 1 deg C in Moscow at the moment and no sign of getting colder for the next five days.

    Is that summer sun or knocker? :rofl:

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    4 minutes ago, Dean E said:

    Any supporting charts for this?

    Landmasses can freeze over in the matter of hours/days. So I wouldn't worry about one area being too warm right now.

    YES.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/524901

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    Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
    3 minutes ago, nytram43 said:

    It's a balmy 1 deg C in Moscow at the moment and no sign of getting colder for the next five days.

    luckily it is due to be colder in 10 days, when it matters.... ;)

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
    10 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

    Just to add a bit of realism to the thread. 12z ECM has less than 1cm of snow for most away from Scotland and the North East. I wonder if this output takes into a account shower activity spreading in from the North Sea though? 

    I much prefer GEM as the slider delivers for most around day 9-10 where as ECM has it going into Northern France. Still lots of time for changes though 

     

    E8BD1B97-21BD-4724-B937-DB6400086255.png

    All models are terrible at convective precipitation ECM is clearly not picking up on it, not until much closer to the time we’ll be able to assess how much and where is it concentrated. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Springfield, Chelmsford, Essex 30Mtr ASL
  • Weather Preferences: snowy or sunny but not too hot!
  • Location: Springfield, Chelmsford, Essex 30Mtr ASL
    48 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

    Oh My , please , please Happen . Please . :cold:

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    Hello Mark,

    You wont be back at work if this materialises. I believe with that frigid airflow over a relatively warm North Sea we will be rewarded with a large dumping of snow. It certainly to my untutored eyes looks primed for it.

    Kind Regards

    Dave

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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

    The EC op has jumped clusters this evening - the 00Z was like this morning's cluster 1, but the 12Z is more like this morning's cluster 3. This is happening a lot in a knife-edge situations I have found:

    ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018010100_240. ECM1-240.GIF?00   ECM1-240.GIF?01-0  

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    Posted
  • Location: Emsworth, Hampshire
  • Location: Emsworth, Hampshire
    5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    Thanks.

    Again, won't take long for that forecast to change with temperatures nose diving (either one way or another) given Moscow's locale and the current model output.

    Edited by Dean E
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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    4 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

    All models are terrible at convective precipitation ECM is clearly not picking up on it, not until much closer to the time we’ll be able to assess how much and where is it concentrated. 

    Agreed...

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    16 minutes ago, nytram43 said:

    It's a balmy 1 deg C in Moscow at the moment and no sign of getting colder for the next five days.

    Talk about sticking a pin in it!:80::shok::laugh:

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    5 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

    minus 9ºc in moscow by next week...

    True but a) that's a forecast, b) most importantly, the upper air is more important as that's what we are trying to import to ignite the convection.

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    Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

    ECM if that verified would certainly prolong the cold.Even with the less cold uppers shown in the later frames a flow from the continent would keep the uk well below average.

    Often with these Scandi.blocks the modeling of them changes as we go forward as the split of the jet becomes clearer so if we got as far as days 9 on with a similar pattern we could see a better orientation to advect colder uppers from further east,but i speculate here.

    It looks fairly clear with the agreement amongst the op.runs that Friday on through the week end will get colder from the north as the low drops south and leaves us in that cold ne/e flow with the ridge to the north.

    Early next week looks like the next period to focus on as the high eases east and the next low shows it's hand to the nw.This will test the resilience of any blocking.

    Comparing gfs and ecm at T192-day 8

    gfseu-0-192.png?12ECE1-192.GIF?01-0

    we can clearly see that the ecm run is undercutting the next Atlantic attack whereas gfs eventually pushes through sweeping away the high to the east.That's why i say if the ecm run proves correct then day 9 onwards could turn out even better.

    So day 7 seems the key date,maybe even day 6 if things become more progressive -a look at the jet stream stamps at T192hrs

    viewimage.pbx?type=ens;date=20180101;tim

    underlines the difficulty with a split jet,we can see the number of different outcomes possible on those.A little less energy going se and more  further north against the block then things look more like the later GFS(Atlantic wins this time).

    Clearly we need the ecm to be have the right evolution beyond day 6 to prolong the cold spell.

     

    Edited by phil nw.
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    Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
    Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

    True but a) that's a forecast, b) most importantly, the upper air is more important as that's what we are trying to import to ignite the convection.

    agreed. point being, it will get colder. also, if the EC is correct, the long draw will come from further away than moscow, which will consequently get colder still-

    ECH1-240-7.thumb.gif.c7030c8184aeb681cdadf87060e2899f.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bournemouth
    9 minutes ago, phil nw. said:

     

    gfseu-0-192.png?12

     

     

    GFS spawns a Super Typhoon in the northern Atlantic. :rofl:    Er, no!

    (Edit - I've deleted phil nw's text to shorten my post.  For the record, I'm laughing at the GFS' output - not phil nw's excellent post.  Apologies if my post reads wrong & out of context...)

    Edited by Luke Best
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