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Model output discussion - into 2018


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An ode to the model output thread... "In days of old, when Thatcher was bold and Kettley was a weatherman, Tales are told of winters cold, and snow lay everywhere, man.   The World Wide Web

We should rename thread the ‘miserable git’ thread -  So much negativity & misery in here I’m surprised people even make it out of bed. updated 06z JMA joins the euro party to 84

Find 1 post that I said it would be a convective Easterly - The problem with you ( & many others ) is you read one thing but assume another. The forecast was a blend of the GEM / ECM 

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Posted
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs
    3 minutes ago, Surrey said:

    Doesn't the ecm have a habit of back tracking towards the gfs

    eeerrrr no? 

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    Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex

    Ah 216 cuts off the real cold air, not to worry though. Let's get the Scandi high in place then worry about breakdowns.

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

    I don’t like the look of Day 8 cold air is going to get mixed out and the saggy bottom. The Scandi high is doomed to sink, however some frontal snow before that. A potent spell. 

    Oops I was wrong gets better!! Cold air does get mixed out though..

    FD0A32D7-371D-4E3A-A8A6-111180A1FEAA.thumb.png.2e7e69e64cbe0dfeb8bb2c1e97f249f5.png

    Edited by Daniel*
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    Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 would be nice :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 would be nice :-)

    GEM AND ECM AT 192h.... BANG ON:D

    gem-0-192_lhm1.pngECM1-192_itp8.GIF

    GFS NOT SO

    gfs-0-192_nwk7.png

    Edited by Dancerwithwings
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    Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex

    Not bad my son, not bad!

    image.thumb.png.b0ec8c62bbff66ca2896ad1bb8424ee5.png

    what will 240hrs bring??

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    Just now, Daniel* said:

    I don’t like the look of Day 8 cold air is going to get mixed out and the saggy bottom. The Scandi high is doomed to sink, however some frontal snow before that. A potent spell. 

    Its still freezing !

    The flow will be off the continent..

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    Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough
    5 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

    I don’t like the look of Day 8 cold air is going to get mixed out and the saggy bottom. The Scandi high is doomed to sink, however some frontal snow before that. A potent spell. 

    The pattern tends to dry itself out in the east though a SE flow would probably be sunny with overnight frosts, that high isn't going to sink from here on this run.

    ECH1-192.GIF?01-0   ECH1-216.GIF?01-0

    The Atlantic trough is sharpening and disrupting with the Scandi high gaining further ground, once the trough sinks towards Iberia the high would have the opprtunity to push westwards allowing another surge of cold air to come in from the north east. Surface temperatures here would be close to freezing by day for most of the UK.

    Day 10, high beginning to retrogress with a link up with the developing Atlantic ridge with bitterly cold air pushing into Eastern Europe.

    ECH1-240.GIF?01-0

     

    Edited by Captain Shortwave
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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
    1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

    Its still freezing !

    The flow will be off the continent..

    That’s right ice days even for densely populated regions. :) 

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

    Anyone thinking the D9 chart is poor - think again, yes the cold uppers rapidly disappear and yes the Atlantic trough could be tilted better, but it could still give a dumping at 240 and even if it dosnt, look at the ridging into the Arctic from the high between D8 and D9.

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    Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20

    Wouldn’t it be great if we see signs of retrogression at day 10 - but that’s just me being greedy!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    It's official..Sidney is worried..what a run:D:cold:

    imageproxy.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

    Anyone thinking the D9 chart is poor - think again, yes the cold uppers rapidly disappear and yes the Atlantic trough could be tilted better, but it could still give a dumping at 240 and even if it dosnt, look at the ridging into the Arctic from the high between D8 and D9.

    Bingo!!

    EC is one of the best runs for a long long time.

    Everyone pray the UKMO in particular follows in the morning!!

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    Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex

    VERY nice - A STUNNER!:yahoo:

    image.thumb.png.65156fd71b53870664e145b6d86f2dd2.png

    Somewhere could get plastered - and no not down at Crewcold's local :D

    Edited by Purga
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    Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
    Just now, Surrey said:

    Doesn't the ecm have a habit of back tracking towards the gfs

    no-  you imagined that

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    Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing rain heat waves
  • Location: Orpington Kent

    ECM looking fantastic for uk very cold and snow.  south east England looks to me it could get burried .:D

     

     

    IMG_0283.JPG

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

    Bingo!!

    EC is one of the best runs for a long long time.

    Everyone pray the UKMO in particular follows in the morning!!

    If I was being hyper critical at D10, I don't like the PV profile over Greenland and subsequent tilt on its associated surface lows but that's really being greedy + anyway theres other good points like the really frigid air getting further west through Russia.

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    Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
    2 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

    Can anyone get the below link to work for UKMO extended?

    https://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tcgen/

    To find the T168 chart, visit here first:

    https://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tcgenDAT/2018/

    Then click the current date and runtime folder, e.g.

    https://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tcgenDAT/2018/2018010100/

    Then scroll down to find the files prefixed with ukm2. This morning's was called ukm2.2018010800.168.lant.troplant.prp.fcst.gentracker.png

    The 12z folder is not there yet, though.

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    Posted
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs

    B6A2DCDF-0E18-41BD-8D82-E2594A13DE89.thumb.png.442b2c8251a2dcf78b7c9033a9fdeae5.png

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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
    8 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

    Bingo!!

    EC is one of the best runs for a long long time.

    Everyone pray the UKMO in particular follows in the morning!!

    I'm off to the Basilica in Lourdes as we speak!

    Yes lets hope the UKMO comes on board because the ECM is really good and would be a great way to start 2018.

    Edited by nick sussex
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