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Model output discussion - into 2018


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Posted
  • Location: near dalmellington E ayrshire 302m asl
  • Weather Preferences: mediterranean summer
  • Location: near dalmellington E ayrshire 302m asl
    3 minutes ago, mulzy said:

    ECM day 6 is decent - just worried about the high sinking as per the 0z run...

    its going no where  looks good 

    ECM1-168.GIF

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    An ode to the model output thread... "In days of old, when Thatcher was bold and Kettley was a weatherman, Tales are told of winters cold, and snow lay everywhere, man.   The World Wide Web

    We should rename thread the ‘miserable git’ thread -  So much negativity & misery in here I’m surprised people even make it out of bed. updated 06z JMA joins the euro party to 84

    Find 1 post that I said it would be a convective Easterly - The problem with you ( & many others ) is you read one thing but assume another. The forecast was a blend of the GEM / ECM 

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
    2 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

    Being fussy it could be aligned better but nice all the same

    IMG_8729.GIF

    Really? I think it’s perfect maybe not if you’re looking for a North Sea snow machine. However any snow cover will linger it won’t be going anywhere. :) 

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    Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 would be nice :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 would be nice :-)

    ECM showing heavy Snow showers for Saturday and well inland to :clap:

    ECU1-120_cft4.GIFECU0-120_elu4.GIF

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    Posted
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl

    Lots of snow showers and streamers on a brisk easterly, and surely a good chance of the fabled Thames Streamer forming.:D

     

    T168

    ECM1-168.gif

    ECM0-168.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
    2 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

    Being fussy it could be aligned better but nice all the same

    IMG_8729.GIF

    The expectation is that 192 eastern end tilts & the western end lifts forcing cold back west again-

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    i bet Sidney will be a bit worried about the Ecm 12z..surely a good sign?:D:cold-emoji:

    96_mslp850uk.png

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    96_mslp850.png

    120_thickuk.png

    120_mslp850uk.png

    120_mslp850.png

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    imageproxy.gif

    Edited by Frosty.
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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester

    Yes, the ECM lengthens the cold spell. At 168 hours it is miles better than this morning's output and it should offer some breakdown snow in later frames.

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    Posted
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,
  • Weather Preferences: cold snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,

    The ecm seems to tie in with what was posted in the strat thread, very interesting and much welcomed, especially for us in the snow starved south 

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth

    Has the ecm ever had great run that's never come to fruition? Hmmm let me think:D:D

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    Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland

    very impressed with the 12z SHAKY model suite.....perturbation 17 is sort of half way house...."Steve what u make of the gfs so far?"........Perturbation 22 is more promising....."ECM is better than ukmo slightly at 72Ecm hours!more a push of heights from the north and low pressure further south west of uk!!".......but perturbation 37 is the COBRA run!....."A beauty of an t96 chart from ecm!!low sliding across the uk and going into the near continent!!"..........A new Net Weather best seller publication needs to be penned....."50 Shades of Ramp"...............I'll buy it, as the outlook looks bloody good for the white stuff :D....

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    If the Atlantic made it close enough we could see some pretty big snowfalls with all that cold air in place

    ECM1-192.thumb.GIF.f07a6b46ff60b52da605d4eb4803a802.GIFECM0-192.thumb.GIF.671f1a4d077d4afdec54dd166fec4b50.GIF

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    Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex

    I imagine day 9/10 could be model filth, I don't want to look... as we will only be disappointed, but I can't resist :D

     

    Atlantic lows bumping to cold contintental airmass would be snow heaven for some, won't happen... obviously (no tempting of fate here)

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    Just now, mulzy said:

    Let’s hope that this ECM is another mild outlier!:D

    I well and truely cried that run in mulzy :D

    Excellent for the SE, i mean like REALLY excellent!!

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    Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)

    The holding players..

    Pac-ridge/pennisula warm..

    Switching, to great format of disposale of cold via trough spillage..

    Easterly is on!!

    Screenshot_2018-01-01-18-41-16.png

    Screenshot_2018-01-01-18-41-23.png

    ECH0-168.gif

    Edited by tight isobar
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    Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
    4 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

    new 'That ECM'??????

    ECM1-192.GIF?01-0

    Tonight we gona see a new THAT 18Z GFS!!!!!!!!!!!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Thorpe Surrey (About 1 mile from Thorpe park)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, more snow and even more snow..Oh and I love a good old Thunderstorm
  • Location: Thorpe Surrey (About 1 mile from Thorpe park)

    Doesn't the ecm have a habit of back tracking towards the gfs

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    Posted
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl

    Good old ECM, I had a feeling in my water that it would produce the goods this evening, lovely run so far, could be the best January cold and snow spell coming up in many years, and it could last as long as a week, or more!:yahoo::cold::cold-emoji:

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    Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
    Just now, northwestsnow said:

    I well and truely cried that run in mulzy :D

    Excellent for the SE, i mean like REALLY excellent!!

    Good for the SE but really want an upgrade to make it countrywide.  No-one should miss out (except the greedy Midlanders ofc!!!)

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    Just now, Surrey said:

    Doesn't the ecm have a habit of back tracking towards the gfs

    If i were you are i think i might have wee'd watching that EC run surrey :D

    The block is strong on EC!!

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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE

    Absolutely no chance the ECM would dream of crashing the Atlantic through at T192hrs. Synoptically impossible from the T168hrs timeframe.

    Thankfully it hasn't been on the sherry and delivered !

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