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Model output discussion - into 2018


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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    3 minutes ago, ShortWaveHell said:

    Why doesnt the CFS Just retire , its that awkward bloke at weddings who nobody seems to have invited and everyone wants to leave 

    I agree. It's even less use than a bacon sarnie at a bar mitzva!:D

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    An ode to the model output thread... "In days of old, when Thatcher was bold and Kettley was a weatherman, Tales are told of winters cold, and snow lay everywhere, man.   The World Wide Web

    We should rename thread the ‘miserable git’ thread -  So much negativity & misery in here I’m surprised people even make it out of bed. updated 06z JMA joins the euro party to 84

    Find 1 post that I said it would be a convective Easterly - The problem with you ( & many others ) is you read one thing but assume another. The forecast was a blend of the GEM / ECM 

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
    1 minute ago, booferking said:

    Jolly good shot sir. Plenty left in the tank

    Screenshot_20180101-182548.png

    UK will get glazed there at least !

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    Posted
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
    Just now, SteveB said:

    That's the way it should be in Winter, Greece bathing in warmth rather than us!

    Yes we are surely well overdue an old school type of January!

    144z.:cold:

    ECM1-144.gif

    ECM0-144.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
    1 minute ago, snowray said:

    Yes we are surely well overdue an old school type of January!

    144z.:cold:

    ECM1-144.gif

    ECM0-144.gif

    Ay, Kent in feet of snow, snow limit probably around St Albans, snow moving SSW, from Lincolnshire area

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    Posted
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl

    ECM looking more like the GEM, so full marks to that model, if these charts come close to verifying of course. 

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level

    Warm seas unstable airflow/-8 uppers-

    PLEASE EC be on the ball here!!

    You watch if this gets into the 48hour mark how much the models upgrade the snow showers off the north sea!!

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    1 minute ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

    Ay, Kent in feet of snow, snow limit probably around St Albans, snow moving SSW, from Lincolnshire area

    Well you might be right but i'd suggest snow much more widely than that!

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    Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20

    ECM day 6 is decent - just worried about the high sinking as per the 0z run...

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    Just now, mulzy said:

    ECM day 6 is decent - just worried about the high sinking as per the 0z run...

    Its a sensational run for the SE of England- it will still be bitter by tues..

     

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    Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)

    Things getting 'real' via ec 12..

    Depth-of alingnment flagging..

    The open to placement is on..850s screaming in...

    ECM0-144.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough
    4 minutes ago, mulzy said:

    ECM day 6 is decent - just worried about the high sinking as per the 0z run...

    We have much more substantial low heights to our south compared to this mornings run.

    ECM1-144.GIF?01-0 vs ECM1-168.GIF?01-12

    The high should trasfer across the north of the country with a cold ENE flow across the south with winds falling light over Scotland and Northern England with harsh frosts.

    Lets see how the easterly develops.

    Day 7 - Pretty good

    ECM1-168.GIF?01-0

    850s of -8C still in the south though the amount of convection may become limited with rising heights. The incoming Atlantic low looks in a pretty good shape to undercut the high.

    Edited by Captain Shortwave
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    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
    1 minute ago, mulzy said:

    ECM day 6 is decent - just worried about the high sinking as per the 0z run...

    Probably need to see WAA a smidgen more vertical on western limb of the block to enable it to sustain. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
    1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

    Well you might be right but i'd suggest snow much more widely than that!

    we need the high further NE, need a ENE or E flow, not NNE

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    Posted
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW ICE
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
    2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

    :bomb:

    2714C9BE-D84D-47EC-9AE4-FE7B68DAD4C2.thumb.png.cbdeb0915d1516a2d26ec543fcf3fb65.png

    It's going to get mental in here:cold:

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    Posted
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Hot and Sunny but not opressive
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey

    Oh My , please , please Happen . Please . :cold:

    9840D2E2-B755-4723-9197-BC91B2B5CF79.png

    9082A460-29F2-4BBF-806D-3E96B6CF2AAF.jpeg

    2A71DD37-BDC2-41F8-ABA3-FAF54D24C2A3.png

    28050094-DDA3-4CDF-ABCB-694731F2805C.png

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    1 minute ago, ShortWaveHell said:

    At 168 the ecm goes towards the 00z mean  and doesn’t become a stupid outlier from the same suite 

    EC is sensational this evening!!

    I'm really happy for the brothers and sisters in the SE of England...(its looking really really good for you guys).

    Now lets all hope and pray UKMO is still drunk !!!

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