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Model output discussion - into 2018


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Posted
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
    4 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

    A cold spell looks a pretty good bet but it might not be much more than a few days

    gefsens850London0.thumb.png.f3cef1b170f5f362ed927886a4dd3cac.png

    Looks like both the opp and ens were nowhere near the coldest runs, could be better to come. 

    Maybe ECM can produce one of its stellar performances this evening.:rolleyes:

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    An ode to the model output thread... "In days of old, when Thatcher was bold and Kettley was a weatherman, Tales are told of winters cold, and snow lay everywhere, man.   The World Wide Web

    We should rename thread the ‘miserable git’ thread -  So much negativity & misery in here I’m surprised people even make it out of bed. updated 06z JMA joins the euro party to 84

    Find 1 post that I said it would be a convective Easterly - The problem with you ( & many others ) is you read one thing but assume another. The forecast was a blend of the GEM / ECM 

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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
    1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    Its not, it is so close to giving a blizzard and massively extending the cold spell, however, it just cant seem to go that extra mile so that theres a battleground the right side of marginal and a whole load more flatliners on the graph right until the end of the run, all we need is a bit more elongation and a dig further south, still though, even a mean ensemble isn't reliable at that range at the moment and the trend is more amplification with each run (albeit minute incremental) so theres still 2-3 days of potential upgrades before we are firmly in operational territory.

    Knife edge stuff!!

    Granted,we know it can go pear shaped as we found out from that failed easterly 48hrs out but interesting model viewing all the same:)

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level

    Think we are fast reaching the stage were the high res Ops should have a better handle.

    With that in mind i'm hoping the EC does not throw out another mild outlier tonight.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    Its not, it is so close to giving a blizzard and massively extending the cold spell, however, it just cant seem to go that extra mile so that theres a battleground the right side of marginal and a whole load more flatliners on the graph right until the end of the run, all we need is a bit more elongation and a dig further south, still though, even a mean ensemble isn't reliable at that range at the moment and the trend is more amplification with each run (albeit minute incremental) so theres still 2-3 days of potential upgrades before we are firmly in operational territory.

    Given the choice, I'd opt for the snow of a '47 (if not Pennsylvania!:D) and the longevity of a '63...However, this being the good ol' UK, the duration and the depth will more likely be both similar to that what didn't happen in 1989! :cray:

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    Posted
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
    1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

    Think we are fast reaching the stage were the high res Ops should have a better handle.

    With that in mind i'm hoping the EC does not throw out another mild outlier tonight.

     

    Yes, and the ECM has been very consistent out to T120 so fingers crossed.

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    Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester

    Ecm better than ukmo slightly at 72 hours!more a push of heights from the north and low pressure further south west of uk!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

    Think we are fast reaching the stage were the high res Ops should have a better handle.

    With that in mind i'm hoping the EC does not throw out another mild outlier tonight.

     

    It would be a lot better than if it throws out a mild run which isn't an outlier!!

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    1 minute ago, shaky said:

    Ecm better than ukmo slightly at 72 hours!more a push of heights from the north and low pressure further south west of uk!!

    I do love a good shaky ramp :D

    Early days yet mate- lets see how the crucial 96-144 timeframe looks..

    Edited by northwestsnow
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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

    Verification stats at day 6 see for yourself, take note it’s how it performs broadly not specialised for our little island.

    40C82291-9898-497B-AF86-1D72D2B9DDB5.thumb.jpeg.0317dc5e99a2655fde725f6a19efd608.jpeg

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    4 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

    Given the choice, I'd opt for the snow of a '47 (if not Pennsylvania!:D) and the longevity of a '63...However, this being the good ol' UK, the duration and the depth will more likely be both similar to that what didn't happen in 1989! :cray:

    I think I can pretty much guarantee it will be somewhere in between to be honest.

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    Posted
  • Location: West London
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: West London

    Soon enough this discussion for the easterly will be in the short range MOD thread?, or is that more useful for talking about potential snowfall events?

    Edited by OfficialKevWX
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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
    Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

    I think I can pretty much guarantee it will be somewhere in between to be honest.

    I will settle for Jan 1987..not being too greedy:santa-emoji:

    CFSR_1_1987011218_2.png

    CFSR_1_1987011218_1.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    1 minute ago, Daniel* said:

    Verification stats at day 6 see for yourself, take note it’s how it performs broadly not specialised for our little island.

    40C82291-9898-497B-AF86-1D72D2B9DDB5.thumb.jpeg.0317dc5e99a2655fde725f6a19efd608.jpeg

    So as per usual then - ECM just bosses the world and the rest much of a muchness but UKMO GFS than lower rankers in that order.

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    Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
    1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

    Simply lovely... :)

    82E63B9B-D2FB-43EF-A7A1-E3D850EAFF4E.thumb.png.18311aeafb90c174bc855c72b42d0540.png

    Plenty in the cold tank looking at that sir:D

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    Posted
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl

    Yes lovely chart at T120. The colder uppers are covering the whole of the UK including the SE, -8/-9c into the Midlands.:)

    ECM0-120.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

    yes, SM will get pasted, not great for my location as showers moving SSW, NW limit probably around Northants, still snow details well in FI yet

    ECM1-120.GIF?01-0

     

    Edited by I remember Atlantic 252
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    Posted
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW ICE
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
    3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

    Simply lovely... :)

    82E63B9B-D2FB-43EF-A7A1-E3D850EAFF4E.thumb.png.18311aeafb90c174bc855c72b42d0540.png

    ECM Even colder uppers for the UK than gfs:cold:

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    Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
    1 minute ago, snowray said:

    Yes lovely chart at T120. The colder uppers are covering the whole of the UK including the SE, -8/-9c into the Midlands.:)

    ECM0-120.gif

    That's the way it should be in Winter, Greece bathing in warmth rather than us!

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    Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
    4 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

    Plenty in the cold tank looking at that sir:D

    Gona get a bit of a blinding from that snow  winterof79??

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