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Model output discussion - into 2018


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2 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

A little disappointing Exeter talking about a breakdown from the West and milder air pushing through. 

Doesn’t instill still confidence of a prolonged cold spell from the East. 

Timing of transition uncertain though - I guess that includes may not happen, or hope it does!!

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An ode to the model output thread... "In days of old, when Thatcher was bold and Kettley was a weatherman, Tales are told of winters cold, and snow lay everywhere, man.   The World Wide Web

We should rename thread the ‘miserable git’ thread -  So much negativity & misery in here I’m surprised people even make it out of bed. updated 06z JMA joins the euro party to 84

Find 1 post that I said it would be a convective Easterly - The problem with you ( & many others ) is you read one thing but assume another. The forecast was a blend of the GEM / ECM 

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6 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

A little disappointing Exeter talking about a breakdown from the West and milder air pushing through. 

Doesn’t instill still confidence of a prolonged cold spell from the East. 

Let’s talk about the end of the cold spell before it even exists:rolleyes:

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If you look at this basic illustration by the ECM 00Z it shows a developing Easterly flow followed by an attempt by the Atlantic to displace the cold. I know this will probably change on the 12z and may not be the correct way forward. 

The latter frames to me look like the energy is moving s/e from the encroaching Atlantic and heights are desperately trying to reform to our n/e and n/w so this is why Exeter feel that they have to mention it. These situations can and have provided large snowfall totals in the past. Indeed the re establishing of the block has provided this country with many a classic winter as a battle ground over our cold land mass can occur.

tempresult_yvo7.gif

Edited by winterof79
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9 minutes ago, Hull snow said:

Very mixed signals on here bbc saying very cold someone else saying Exeter saying breakdown ??

it will be very cold-

UW144-7.thumb.gif.1c2b55033e4793f3e7fa2b78d6aa7a2c.gif

the extent and duration is still in question but many places could see snow at the weekend and beyond. obviously it won't last forever and this is the 'breakdown' being referred to. the uncertainty is when the breakdown happens or even if it happens....

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10 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Are we really discussing the ins-and-outs of the beak-down of a cold spell that hasn't even happened yet?? Come on guys - give it a chance?:D:cold:

I was trying to explain the reasoning behind some "worries" people have about breakdowns in general. There is no breakdown as there is not yet a cold spell:cold-emoji: long live the cold spell I say

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In the olden day’s that some posters have referred to, a failed easterly was a blink and you had missed it affair. With forecasts only out to 24/48 hours and no media hype only people like us on Netweather would have noticed. Now we have six days to salivate over a meto chart that would deliver ice and snow big time. Easterlies now even fail in FI !

But one thing I know is get the easterly in and it will write its own script. Another reason for Exeter caution. Hope it’s a thriller.

Happy New Year?

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There really is no easterly yet - no cross model agreement. We surely aren’t going to refer to a transient lee flow from the east as an easterly?? 

Need to see the next suites and then tomorrow’s 12z’s should be there or there about agreement wise. Looking at the eps clusters for days 5/8, I wouldn’t be making any predictions! 

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1 hour ago, Hull snow said:

Very mixed signals on here bbc saying very cold someone else saying Exeter saying breakdown ??

Turning much colder later on in to weekend  increasing chance of sleet and snow showers in places especially in north/ east. If we see a breakdown from the west the  uk can get heavy snow fall from and sometimes stalling weather fronts so mild weather may not get right across the uk .. that's what could happen but don't hold me to that . 

Edited by abbie123
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MY OPINION....... The word "Breakdown" should be band on this thread :p

Happy New Year to all and especially to whom make Net Weather and this thread so great  :D

Edited by Dancerwithwings
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53 minutes ago, Hull snow said:

someone else saying Exeter saying breakdown ??

Someone should call the AA:D...seriously though, let's enjoy the ride, it looks like turning much colder towards the end of this week...2 months of official winter to go, hopefully plenty more cold spells to look forward to!!:cold-emoji::drinks:

 

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Further displacement and weakening of Polar Vortex in both GFS-ENS and EC-ENS. Recent forecasts dislocate PV completely across Baffin and America in mid January. In addition, there are significant dives in AO 10-15. January. Hope for the winter lives to that extent.

Trends also look extremely promising in 500 hPa geopotential height anomalies from both EC-ENS and GFS-ENS. Rising pressure anomaly over Scandi and later Arctic and Greenland from January 10th and onwards:

http://www.meteociel.fr/.../2018010100/EDH101-240.GIF...

http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/.../2018.../gensnh-21-5-240.png http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/.../2018.../gensnh-21-7-300.png

Edited by frederiksen90
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7 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

It’s not a lee flow

UKMO + ECM mean 144-168 indicates otherwise - 

A lee flow has no high pressure support.

I was thinking we were looking at ENE to be honest Steve..i may be wrong but i dont see a direct easter on the NWP this morning..if we did im not sure we would be seeing -8 uppers across the UK..(Given Poland and the Ukraine remain quite noticeably mild).

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Happy New year to all on Netweather and hopefully a healthy and rewarding one.

Lets hope this afternoons and evenings runs keep the feel good mood going. I was surprised at the ecm's amplification from t168 to t192 on the 12z yesterday but would be nice to see something similar on the runs today. I to think that with the synoptics being shown we have to get it right first time. I do not see there being any second or third chances as once the Atlantic breaks through there will be a more zonal period.

Eyes down for a great afternoon model watching hopefully.

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21 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

I was thinking we were looking at ENE to be honest Steve..i may be wrong but i dont see a direct easter on the NWP this morning..if we did im not sure we would be seeing -8 uppers across the UK..(Given Poland and the Ukraine remain quite noticeably mild).

Difficult to say really at this stage but at 126z on the GFS which is pants compared to UKMO  the wind is e/ne and coming from a scandi direction

gfs-1-126.png?6

gfs-14-126.png?6

All hypothetic at this stage. Hoping for GFS to sustain the high further north over us.

 

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Eye -openly better..

Jet-align fruitful for conversion!..

And depth of colder shape into the continental plane...

Its the evo-we need via all outs!!

Edit;

Wrap of heights are primmed...

gfs-5-66.png

gfs-1-66.png

Edited by tight isobar
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Patients is a virtue.....

Now like I said few days ago this winter so far has been different to most recent years much more southerly tracking jet plus sliders.

This don't look like stopping anytime soon either.

I remember 2013 and 2009/10 constantly the models would try to break down blocking,

only for it to be constantly pushed back and back.

Shallow heights from passed events have shown they can seriously cause all manner of crazy outlooks.

We need lows to our south we need sliders and we need some form of heights to our north east north or northwest.

ATM north and northeast look like being favourite strength of the block won't be nailed for few or more days yet.

Length of cold snap/spell is impossible at this stage until we have more data.

But so far things are going in the right direction.

But I'd not try sugar coat anything because the UK climate is most likely one of the most complicated forecasting areas in the world.

But like many others I'm on the fence.

But I believe background signals do seem to favour a more wintry feeling winter this time round.

If we get downgrades after downgrades,

then perhaps it be better to except it,and wait for the next round.

But a few days now there's been some hope from the models.

Remember you don't need -8 uppers from the east continent.

But of course there's also the issue of mixing out the cold so north Easterly or Arctic air would be better.

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