Model output discussion - into 2018

[SMU]

1 minute ago, andymusic said:

have to admire you Steve - your like a dog with a bone mate - you'll force the easterly through yet against all model output it is a shame at the mo while the UK sits in this no mans land - The Sahara Desert gets snow - Switzerland can't cope with the 7 feet it's had just dumped on it and on some of the southern Spanish beaches around Malaga they've had snow on the beach itself - amazing - oh well our time will come again shortly I'm sure

One day mate - our time will come again...

 

[Methuselah]

5 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Yep terrible run from the ECM . The nw / Westy winds ant gonna cut it . The only winners will be high ground . Cold rain everywhere else . Yuck ? 

By and large, I suspect you're pretty much on-the-money there, IC; WNW PM winds are nearly always very marginal...However, marginality doesn't preclude there being one or two pleasant surprises in store...IMO, quite the opposite: any areas of intense precipitation (that are combined with little or no wind) would almost guarantee some interest...? 

I'm not going to get all excited yet, though!

[SMU]

9 minutes ago, snowice said:

ECM gfs UKmo say no!

Do you believe the output will change in the 120 range?

Look at the JMA side by side with the UKMO 144

pretty close...

[northwestsnow]

Despite the negativity EC snow depth charts look amazing again for NW Britain

Before i get lined up against a wall i know they are experimental ..

[nick sussex]

The ECM looks okay for high ground to the north.

I think there’s some misunderstanding as to why some of us want the block to hold on.

Its in case there’s more trough disruption , we don’t want the cold pool removed.

The easterly isn’t the main point of cheering on the block at this time , it’s just in case the troughing disrupts more.

 

Edited January 9, 2018 by nick sussex

[swfc]

I think you could sum up the ecm as average imo.not mild not overly cold .guess youd call it a spell of normal January weather  be it without mild sw winds ete.hmmm

 

[bluearmy]

6 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

One day mate - our time will come again...

 

if you can turn that jet around as quickly as you charged your battery, we still have a chance!

[ukpaul]

ECM ends horribly, having delayed the incursion, modified the uppers, cut off the trough and minimised its disruption  and anything elae it can find. It is, according to weather.us, actually a snowier run for here and northwards but synoptically, and for the sake of anyone south of here, it would likely shut the door on anything snowy until any putative SSW. Greenie high gone, no sign of any high or mid lat block, just cold rain.

[feb1991blizzard]

5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Despite the negativity EC snow depth charts look amazing again for NW Britain

Before i get lined up against a wall i know they are experimental ..

The only place that would get absolutely battered off that ECM synoptic run is high ground in Scotland and Very high ground (scafel pike) in Englnd.

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

The only place that would get absolutely battered off that ECM synoptic run is high ground in Scotland and Very high ground (scafel pike) in Englnd.

You may be right- but without looking at all the pararmeters to hand i think i'd hold off that judgement for now..

[Bobby93]

The longer the block holds on the better imo, once the Atlantic breaks through we'll be starting all over again.

 

If this block could push further north and west slowly over the next few days output, you just never know what may happen.

 

We shouldn't wish a block in such a position away so quickly, if by the weekend it's still modelled to be pushed away then fair enough. But if over the next few days it could just sneak a little further towards us anything is possible.

Edited January 9, 2018 by Bobby93

[northwestsnow]

13 minutes ago, ukpaul said:

ECM ends horribly, having delayed the incursion, modified the uppers, cut off the trough and minimised its disruption  and anything elae it can find. It is, according to weather.us, actually a snowier run for here and northwards but synoptically, and for the sake of anyone south of here, it would likely shut the door on anything snowy until any putative SSW. Greenie high gone, no sign of any high or mid lat block, just cold rain.

Must admit after both catacol/GPs positive updates over the last 48 hours im very underwhelmed by the long term outputs..

[blizzard81]

1 hour ago, Steve Murr said:

ECM 72 -

 

light continental flow with uppers over the core of England already down to -4/-5.

If that's the definition of an easterly these days then oh how we have hit on hard times these past 20 odd years lol. 

[Chesil View]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Must admit after both catacol/GPs positive updates over the last 48 hours im very underwhelmed by the long term outputs..

I think you always will be NWS if you take anything past 124/144 on the NWP seriously

[SMU]

1 minute ago, blizzard81 said:

If that's the definition of an easterly these days then oh how we have hit on hard times these past 20 odd years lol. 

It’s a bit painful yes - compared with yesteryear....

[snowice]

9 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

You may be right- but without looking at all the pararmeters to hand i think i'd hold off that judgement for now..

GFS has colder uppers need to get to 96hrs.

[northwestsnow]

Just now, snowice said:

GFS has colder uppers need to get to 96hrs.

UKMO looks better than EC at 144 IMHO-

Lets see what the morning runs bring..

[blizzard81]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

UKMO looks better than EC at 144 IMHO-

Lets see what the morning runs bring..

The ecm op is a disappointment tonight. I was expecting a better run. 

[Frosty.]

1 minute ago, blizzard81 said:

If that's the definition of an easterly these days then oh how we have hit on hard times these past 20 odd years lol. 

Yeah it doesn't look much like January 1987 does it

Just looking at the Ecm 12z and I'm seeing plenty of unsettled weather and polar sourced air next week with decent low thicknesses so some of us would get at least some snow, especially on higher ground.❄❄❄❄❄❄❄

[doctor32]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

UKMO looks better than EC at 144 IMHO-

Lets see what the morning runs bring..

Lets see what the weekend runs bring more like... the speed things are going at the moment! 

[Dancerwithwings]

12 minutes ago, Bobby93 said:

The longer the block holds on the better imo, once the Atlantic breaks through we'll be starting all over again.

 

If this block could push further north and west slowly over the next few days output, you just never know what may happen.

 

We shouldn't wish a block in such a position away so quickly, if by the weekend it's still modelled to be pushes away then fair enough. But if over the next few days it could just sneak a little further towards us anything is possible.

Yes and hang around for another 2 to 3 weeks to see if....as you very well stated... "If this block could push further north and west slowly over the next few days output"... over and over again!!!

It ain't for me  

Me personally... let the Atlantic makes it's way because there's more chance of seeing snow that way.....as it's been proven and not just once this Winter.....

Edited January 9, 2018 by Dancerwithwings

[northwestsnow]

4 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

The ecm op is a disappointment tonight. I was expecting a better run. 

Me too, although as i posted the ukmo looks better at 144.

Lets see what the ens say, maybe its being too progressive.

I would LOVE it for JMA to be right..

[Snowman.]

5 minutes ago, Dancerwithwings said:

Yes and hang around for another 2 to 3 weeks to see if....as you very well stated... "If this block could push further north and west slowly over the next few days output"... over and over again!!!

It ain't for me  

Me personally... let the Atlantic makes it's way because there's more chance of seeing snow that way.....as it's been proven and not just once this Winter.....

There was blocking before that scenario along with actual cold embedded in. So the Atlantic steamroller can stay on hold for the entire winter as far as I'm concerned.

Edited January 9, 2018 by SN0WM4N

[Summer Sun]

UKMO extended looks to have the Azores a bit further south compared to GFS

[Day 10]

5 minutes ago, doctor32 said:

Lets see what the weekend runs bring more like... the speed things are going at the moment! 

Yes exactly, the big 3 are more like this at the minute...